Disorder puts spotlight on Northern Ireland's changing demographics

This week's racially motivated violence in Northern Ireland has drawn attention to the region's changing demographics.

The overall level of international migration to NI is below the peaks reached in the late 2000s but where people are coming from has shifted dramatically since Brexit.

Many fewer people are coming from the EU with most new arrivals now from South Asia and an increasing number from Africa.

Official data on people registering for a medical card, to access a local GP, helps illustrates the magnitude of the change

In 2018 Poland accounted for just over 1,000 registrations compared to about 650 from India.

By 2024 registrations from Poland had collapsed to 100, while there were more than 3,000 applicants from India.

This change flows from Brexit and the decisions the UK government made about how to use its new powers to set migration policy.

For nearly two decades following the expansion of the European Union in 2004, the story of immigration in Northern Ireland was written in Polish, Romanian, and Lithuanian.

Free movement allowed thousands of eastern European workers to arrive frictionlessly, filling vacancies in manufacturing, hospitality and agriculture.

Net immigration peaked at just over 9,000 people in 2007, a time when the Northern Ireland economy was experiencing a property-driven boom.

An official analysis suggests that between 2008 and 2016 migrant workers from the EU accounted for almost all of the employment growth in NI.

That study described how "international inward migration for Northern Ireland is very much a euro-centric experience with a relatively limited pull on international migration from outside the EU".

That has now changed as a result of decisions made primarily by Boris Johnson's government.

When the former UK prime minister introduced a points-based immigration system in January 2021, the explicit aim was to move the UK economy away from a perceived reliance on lower-skilled EU labour.

It achieved this by implementing strict skill boundaries and completely ending a general low-skilled or temporary work route.

This has effectively severed the supply of EU workers to NI's food processing and manufacturing plants.

The only significant remaining inflows from the EU are citizens of the Republic of Ireland – they are covered by different migration arrangement as part of the Common Travel Area.

The Johnson policy simultaneously liberalised immigration pathways for non-EU applicants.

The general minimum skill requirement was lowered, from graduate level to A-level equivalent, and the Resident Labour Market Test, which required companies to prove they could not hire locally first, was abolished.

There was also a dedicated health and care worker visa with fast-track processing and lower fees.

After pandemic travel restrictions were removed there was an increase in international immigration to Northern Ireland when compared to the levels seen throughout the 2010s.

It was still lower than the peak period in the 2000s: from 2006 to 2008 total net international migration to Northern Ireland was about 22,000.

The three most recent years for which we have data, 2022 to 2024, showed total net international migration at about 18,500.

But the national origins of the people coming is very different.

We can see that through National Insurance registrations, which helps us assess the numbers of working-age people.

In 2014 just 260 Indian people applied for a National Insurance number, but by 2024 it was 1,200. For Nigerians the numbers moved from 50 to 330. For Pakistanis 60 to 370.

In the same period Polish registrations went from 2,700 to 110. For Lithuanians 1,050 to 100.

The impact of international students can also be seen.

A decade ago there were just 85 Indian students enrolled at university in Northern Ireland, by 2022 it was more than 2,000.

These sorts of changes have been seen across the UK and are referred to, sometimes disparagingly, as the "Boriswave."

The Labour government has framed this period, which saw record high migration to the UK, as a failed "open borders experiment."

It has tightened up many of the Johnson-era visa schemes which has seen migration fall dramatically from its 2023 peak.

The next official figures for Northern Ireland are due later this year and will show what impact the change of policy has had here.