Drought expected to be declared in more parts of England

A drought is expected to be declared in more parts of England on Monday, joining half of the country and the whole of Wales.

The National Drought Group – made up of regulators, government officials, water companies and agricultural bodies - will meet on Monday afternoon to assess the situation across England.

Almost all of southern England is already officially in drought after an exceptionally hot and dry summer, with heatwave conditions set to return for many this week.

Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, said the number of people under a hosepipe ban is likely to increase from the 23 million already experiencing restrictions.

She told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the country had experienced an "exceptional, unprecedented summer", which was becoming the "new norm".

Bentley predicted north-west England, which is already classed as being under a less severe "prolonged dry weather" status, would be among those areas where drought could be declared on Monday.

The areas already officially in drought are East Anglia, Hertfordshire, London, Thames Valley, Hampshire, the Isle of Wight, Devon, Cornwall, the West Midlands and Wessex (Dorset, Somerset, Wiltshire, and south Gloucestershire).

Scotland and Northern Ireland have not been experiencing drought conditions and are expected to see spells of heavy rain over the week ahead.

The UK Health Security Agency has issued amber heat health alerts for all of England apart from the North East from Tuesday at 09:00 BST until Friday at 21:00 BST.

An amber alert means significant impacts "are likely" across health and social care services due to the high temperatures.

There is no single definition of drought, but it usually refers to a period of prolonged unusually dry weather that can have impacts on people, nature and the environment.

Last month, England and Wales saw the driest July since records began in 1836 - while for southern England, it was the driest month ever recorded.

River levels have continued to fall after less than 10mm of rain across England for the seventh consecutive week.

The Environment Agency has warned that low water levels have resulted in potential navigation issues for boats on the Thames, Lark and Ouse.

Reservoir levels have also continued to decline, with almost all across England below normal and five classed as "exceptionally low", according to the agency.

The National Farmers Union (NFU) has warned that continued dry weather could lead to some food shortages.

NFU president Tom Bradshaw said yields of wheat and oats were "very, very poor" this year and warned livestock farmers have had to use their winter feed rations because they have been unable to grow grass.

• Vegetables to get smaller and more expensive due to hot weather, farmers warn

The week ahead is forecast to remain mostly dry, with temperatures soaring across much of England and Wales.

Temperatures will peak on Thursday before dropping slightly over the weekend - and for England and Wales, there is no significant rainfall expected in the foreseeable future.

Emma Pinchbeck, chief executive of the Climate Change Committee, said the UK is "not prepared at all" for the prolonged dry weather.

She told Today: "We're seeing right now with the impacts on farming from this drought and the extreme heat we're experiencing, our infrastructure, our agricultural sector and lots of areas of the economy are not really ready for the weather we now have and how that weather will change up to 2050."

What has been striking about this summer is not any single record, but the way weather extremes are piling up.

Climate change does not cause every heatwave or drought, but it does shift the odds.

By raising average temperatures, it makes extreme heat more likely and, when rain fails, increases evaporation and dries soils faster.

That creates a feedback - dry ground cools the air less, allowing temperatures to climb still higher.

The UK is now seeing the kind of hotter, drier summers climate scientists have long projected, part of a global pattern of heat.

July 2026 was the joint second warmest July globally on record – 1.47C above the pre-industrial average. Only July 2023 was warmer.

Meanwhile, El Niño - the recurring climate pattern in which unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters can affect weather around the world - is giving global temperatures an additional, natural boost.

The World Meteorological Organisation, the UN agency for climate and weather, says a strong El Niño event is developing and is expected to "dominate global climate patterns" in the coming months.