Analysis: How dis war for Ukraine fit end? Five possible ways

Wia dis foto come from, Getty Images
Inside dis tick cloud of war, e fit dey hard to see di way forward.
Di news from di battlefield, di diplomatic noise off, di emotion of di grieving and displaced; all of dis fit dey overwhelming.
So make we step back small and consider how di conflict for Ukraine fit play out.
Wetin be some of di possible ways wey politicians and military planners fit dey consider?
Few fit predict di future wit confidence, but dis na some possible outcomes. Most no dey clear.
Short war
Under dis possible way out, Russia go increase im military operations.
Dem go get more indiscriminate artillery and rocket strikes across Ukraine.
Di Russian air force - wey dia action dey low-key role so far - go launch devastating airstrikes.
Massive cyber-attacks go happun across Ukraine, targeting key national infrastructure.
Energy supplies and communications networks go dey cut off.
Thousands of civilians go die.
Despite brave resistance, Kyiv go fall witin days.
Dem go replace di goment wit pro-Moscow puppet regime.
Dem go either assassinate President Zelensky or e go run comot from di kontri, to western Ukraine or even overseas, to set up goment for exile.
President Putin go declare victory and witdraw some forces, den leave enough behind to maintain some control.
Thousands of refugees go continue to run go west.
Ukraine go join Belarus as one of Moscow client state.
Dis outcome no dey impossible but e go depend on if several factors change: Russian forces perform better, Russia send in more forces, and Ukraine extraordinary fighting spirit fade.
Mr Putin fit achieve regime change for Kyiv and di end of Ukraine mixing wit di west.
But any pro-Russian goment go dey illegitimate and vulnerable to insurgency.
Dis kain result go dey unstable and di possibility of conflict happuning again go dey high.
Long war
E dey more likely say dis git develops into very long war.
Maybe Russian forces go slow down, sake of low morale, poor logistics and yeye leadership.
Maybe e go take longer for Russian forces to takeover cities like Kyiv wey im defenders dey fight from street to street.
Dem fit surround am for long. Di fighting dey remind pesin of Russia long and brutal struggle for di 1990s to seize and mostly destroy Grozny, di capital of Chechnya.Read more















