Nations and Regions: Dynamics of devolution - Northern Ireland
by Rick Wilford
With that matter temporarily resolved - the DUP having lodged a second request for a judicial review - attention turned on November 5th to the rerun of the election of Messrs Trimble and Durkan, prefaced by the further amendment to the standing order, allowing parties to re-redesignate within a week. The amendment was moved by Jim Wilson (UUP chief whip) and, following an acrimonious debate, was passed by weighted majority. Three Alliance MLAs - the former leader, Sean Neeson, and the current leader and deputy leader, respectively Mr Ford and Eileen Bell - duly redesignated themselves as unionists.
The vote was, however, delayed until the next day by a 'petition of concern' requiring that 24 hours should elapse between the debate and the vote as provided by standing orders. Procedural wrangling - or shenanigans - continued to the last. Eventually, on the morning of November 6th, care of four newly baptised unionists, Ms Morrice plus the (temporarily ex-)Alliance trio, Messrs Trimble and Durkan were elected as first and deputy first ministers: 31 unionists voted in support, 29 against, and all 38 nationalists supported the joint slate. Devolution was, once more, back on track.
Cries of 'fix', 'cheat', 'gerrymandering' and worse were hurled around the chamber over the three sitting days and scuffles between pro- and anti-agreement MLAs broke out in the foyer of Parliament Buildings - an episode dubbed 'the brawl in the hall' - following the eventual election. Both proponents and opponents of the amendments to standing orders scrambled to occupy the moral high ground. The former spoke of 'saving the agreement' and pointed to the massive (if simple) pro-agreement majority in the chamber; the latter claimed to want to 'let the people speak' through 'real democracy', namely a fresh assembly election. Pragmatism, however, prevailed, and for the first time since October 2000, all three 'strands' of the agreement - including north-south bodies and the British-Irish Council - should now operate concurrently.
But the road ahead looks extremely bumpy for the UUP, and for its leader in particular. The prospect of a further challenge to Mr Trimble should not be discounted, nor should defections by district councillors, or MLAs, to anti-agreement parties. And Dr Reid's enhanced sensitivity to 'no' unionism reflects the destabilising effect of a majority of 'real' unionists formally withdrawing their support from an agreement whose legitimacy hangs heavily on 'inclusiveness'. In that light, a remark by Mr Blair in the wake of the FM/DFM election - 'The people of Northern Ireland can now look forward to a sustained period of stable government' - rings distinctly hollow.
Yet the region retains an immanent capacity to amaze even the most cynical observers. What then has the assembly achieved over the past three months' apart, that is, from survival?
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