Here's more from Labour's Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies, who says it is going to be an "exceptionally tough day”.

He said he will take defeat personally, adding: "All of us come into politics to do things and change the country, our community, the nation, to be better, to improve people's lives, and to be rejected in that way is hard to take.

“But I think that is part of politics as well."

Irranca-Davies said the party would “need to come back stronger” and there will be a meeting in the 24 hours after the result to determine its future.

"You never blame voters," he said.

"We need to look at those issues of where we haven't performed as well as we could have."

Image source, Getty Images

Leader of the Welsh Conservatives in the Senedd Darren Millar says he is confident his party will play a "significant part" in the next parliament.

"I'm feeling very confident that I'm going to be re-elected today here in Clwyd," he says.

He says things are looking "very good for for me personally, but I really don't know what the outcome is going to be across Wales or even the final outcome here from my other colleague Gareth Davies".

"We'll do our job representing the communities that we represent and trying to secure a better future for Wales," Millar added.

"That's what we're all about. We want Wales to be a prosperous nation."

Kate Morgan
BBC Wales correspondent at a count in Afan Ogwr Rhondda

There was a flurry of excitement in Afan Ogwr Rhondda as Independent candidate Captain Beany arrived.

Dressed in a fluorescent orange suit, the 71-year-old said this would be his “last hurrah” in Welsh politics.

“I won’t fork out another £500 [to stand] from my pension,” he added.

The colourful character, who first stood in 1990, said he had “election fever” and always enjoyed results day - he just hoped not to be last.

After a flurry of “full blown” and “half-baked” puns, he was uncharacteristically serious as he said he just wanted to inspire young people to get involved in politics.

The counting in the Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni constituency has all but ended.

The counters are just doing their final checks on potentially spoiled papers.

If there is no recount, it looks like we may have a declaration soon.

With the first results expected soon, here's a quick round-up of what has happened so far:

• Labour is not going to form the next Welsh government, its deputy first minister has admitted

• Reform UK candidate francesca O'Brien says she is hopeful the party will gain the majority of the votes
• Delyth Jewell, the deputy leader of Plaid Cymru, says it’s clear that Welsh voters are looking for change and Plaid’s leader Rhun ap Iorwerth is the figure who could unify Wales
• Turnout is predicted to be over 50% for the first time
• Results are expected to start coming in after 13:00 BST

Labour looks set to lose power in Wales for the first time in a century, says Professor John Tonge, head of Politics & Communication Studies at the University of Liverpool.

"And of course there's a possibility that Plaid Cymru might be the largest party in Wales," he told BBC Breakfast.

"If the SNP holds on to power in Scotland, as most people will assume, then you've got three nationalist first ministers across Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland.

"The long-term future of the UK may be in some jeopardy, but that's a lot further down the track."

We reported earlier on this morning that some constituencies were reporting an increase in voter turnout.

Prof Sir John Curtice says the figures in the three areas we have so far indicate that it "will rise above 50%" for the "first time in a devolved election".

By comparison, the turnout was 46.6% in 2021.

Image source, Getty Images

Eleanor Shearwood
BBC Newsbeat reporter in Cardiff

It's been quite a week for Amelia Manuel.

The Cardiff student turned 16 on Wednesday, meaning she could vote for the first time on Thursday.

She also took her first GCSE exam that day.

Catching up with BBC Newsbeat in the city centre this morning, she says going to a polling station was "quite scary" but also "exciting because it was something new".

"I was pleased because it's a new responsibility and a lot of friends can’t because they’re too young," she said.

"In our school they advertised it a bit, we had a few assemblies where people came in and spoke about it and we did a mock election so you knew what to do when you did go and vote."

Amelia says she'd "heard about different parties maybe coming into power and that changing" on social media which had made her interested into the election.

"I was definitely thinking about education because that's impacting me a lot right now and definitely transport because I used the bus a lot to come into town with my friends so that will impact me too," she added.

We've spoken a lot about the expanding Senedd and the challenges this will pose for the next party to lead the country.

BBC Wales political correspondent Daniel Davies is in the virtual reality Senedd to explain what this expansion would have meant for the previous government.

He also looks ahead to see how the new voting system will influence who the next first minister will be.

Labour is not going to form the next Welsh government, its deputy first minister has admitted.

When asked if Welsh Labour were going to be in a position to form a government with Eluned Morgan as first minister, Huw Irranca-Davies replied: “I don't think we're going to be in that situation."

“We tried to put forward a very positive manifesto," he told BBC Wales.

"I think it has been a good manifesto, it really has, and we have tried to argue on policies and also the next chapter for Wales.

“But if it hasn't cut through to the people of Wales, we're not going to be in that position then to actually form the next government.”

Elen Davies
BBC Wales reporter at the Ceredigion Penfro count

Eluned Morgan has arrived at the Haverfordwest count and she looks in good spirits.

The first minister greeted her team upon arrival who look concerned as they await the results.

Interestingly, Morgan has decided to wear a sage green suit in favour of red today.

She'll hope that isn't a bad omen for her party's chances of taking a few seats in the constituency.

Gareth Lewis
Wales political editor

We're into the territory here today now of events that many of us never thought we would see happen in our lifetimes.

Yesterday, we had some Labour sources telling us that they expected the party to lose.

Many sources are now going further today, and we're hearing words like “catastrophic” to describe how the Labour vote has collapsed.

They're very, very nervous.

Not at all certain of winning a seat at all in areas like Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni, for example.

We know from hearing from our reporter Cemlyn Davies there that even the first minister in Ceredigion Penfro is under threat.

We've known this threat is there.

It's when you see this manifesting in the cold light of day, and if you just take a step back and look at that 100 years of history, this really is history in the making today.

Nelli Bird
BBC Wales reporter at a count in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd

One of the youngest at today’s count in Builth Wells is four-month-old baby Wyn.

He is here with his mum Phoebe Jenkins, a Lib Dem candidate, who is feeling positive in the Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd constituency.

"I want to make a change and I want to make a difference, and I want to show to women and to mums that you can still do things even if you’ve got small children - you can still campaign and you can door knock and you can turn up at the count with a four-month-old strapped to your front," she said.

Wyn has so far slept through most of the experience but Phoebe isn’t worried about the long day ahead.

“He’s my third baby - he’s much more chilled than my other two," she added.

"He’ll sleep and then he’ll chill. And I’ll just go and feed him in the corner - I’ll add it to places I have breastfed my baby - at a political count."

Jordan Davies
BBC Wales reporter at a count in Sir Fynwy Torfaen

Candidates and supporters are beginning to arrive at Chepstow Leisure Centre, with rosettes pinned to their chest - flashes and shades of red, green, blue and yellow.

The atmosphere is buoyant, positive, expectant in an area that covers the local authorities of Monmouthshire and Torfaen.

Reform has plenty of support in the leisure centre coffee shop - there are plenty of hugs and smiles.

Sir Fynwy Torfaen has a mixed political history, with Torfaen a traditional Labour heartland and Monmouthshire a Tory stronghold.

This could be one of the first constituencies to declare, it will be fascinating to see how the results pan out.

Image source, PA Media

The predicted poor performance for Welsh Labour is the “one moment in Welsh politics that is absolutely key to Westminster politics”, says Guto Harri, a political commentator and former adviser to Boris Johnson.

“This has been a one party state,” he says.

“The first ever Labour MP ever - a man called Keir Hardie - was an MP in Wales.

"Ramsay MacDonald, the first Labour prime minister ever, was an MP briefly in Wales.

"Then you've got Michael Foot, Neil Kinnock, you've got Jim Callaghan, who was prime minister, who had represented this city that we're in today [Cardiff].

“It's huge and they've run Wales since devolution. So this is massive for Wales, big change of direction."

He believes a Labour defeat would spell the end for Starmer.

However, he added: "If this doesn't take him out, he will lead Labour to the next election because he cannot survive this without surviving right through.

"So this is the moment whether Labour MPs in Westminster want to take it or not. There won't be a bigger moment than this.”

Amid the nerves and bold predictions from some party sources, the pace of things is set to pick up over the next few hours.

The 16 constituencies are expected to declare results from about 13:00 BST onwards.

Since this is the first time the new system and new constituencies are in effect, the declaration times listed below could easily shift, but here are some rough estimates:

Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni: 13:00

Casnewydd Islwyn: 13:00-16:00

Ceredigion Penfro: 14:00-15:00

Gŵyr Abertawe: Aiming for 14:00

Sir Gaerfyrddin: 14:00-15:00

Clwyd: Early afternoon, possibly by 14:00

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: 15:00

Caerdydd Ffynnon: 15:00 at the earliest

Caerdydd Penarth: 15:00 at the earliest

Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg: 15:00 at the latest

Afan Ogwr Rhondda: 15:30-16:30

Gwynedd Maldwyn: 15:00-17:00

Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr: Late afternoon

Fflint Wrecsam: 18:00

Bangor Conwy Môn: Unsure

Sir Fynwy Torfaen: Unsure

Cemlyn Davies
BBC Wales correspondent at the count in Ceredigion Penfro

Image source, Getty Images

I'm in Llandysul where the Ceredigion Penfro results will be announced later.

Only votes from the Ceredigion part of this constituency will be counted here, with voters in Ceredigion representing a third of the total electorate.

The Pembrokeshire votes are being counted in Haverfordwest, so party officials at both counts will be in constant contact as they try to get a clear picture of what's likely to happen.

The big question here - will the first minister be re-elected?

She has already acknowledged publicly that her seat is on a "knife-edge".

No sign of her yet, though a number of the other candidates are here.

Image source, Reuters

This election has been a “battle for Wales’ soul”, says Delyth Jewell, the deputy leader of Plaid Cymru.

Jewell says it’s clear that Welsh voters are looking for change and Plaid’s leader Rhun ap Iorwerth is the figure who could unify Wales, fight Westminster when needed, and represent hope for communities.

Jewell adds that there will be a “temptation” to see what is happening in Wales through the prism of either English politics or Westminster dynamics, but insists there is “a distinct Welsh story emerging here”.

“Thousands of people will have put their faith in Plaid Cymru, not just as an idea of a vote against the parties, but a vote in favour of something better for this wonderful nation of Wales,” she says.

“And really, that Welsh voice has spoken. I think today we will find that, I feel hopeful, that we will find that we have spoken with a distinct accent.”

The results countdown is on and presenters Dot Davies and James Williams are in the studio ready to go live on BBC Radio Wales.

The duo will be live from 11:00 following the vote count results as they come in.

James describes today's Senedd election as being like "Christmas Day" for him, while Dot is excited about the uncertainty.

"There is so much to look forward to... for us, we won't know who comes through the door [including winners]," says Dot, adding that they will be on air until "who knows when" in the evening.

If you're not listening in the car, you can follow along via our live stream here or on BBC Sounds.

Kate Morgan
BBC Wales correspondent at the count in Afan Ogwr Rhondda

Vote verification has begun in Afan Ogwr Rhondda - with MP Stephen Kinnock among those at the count.

This constituency - taking in parts of Ogmore, Pontypridd, Aberavon, Bridgend, Rhondda and Neath - brings together several Labour party strongholds.

For instance, Aberavon and Ogmore have elected Labour representatives since day one of devolution back in 1999.

The party also represented Rhondda for 18 of the 27 years since then – although Plaid has a foothold there too.

Reform will also fancy their chances here today.

Candidates from all parties have started to arrive including Huw Irranca Davies – who served as deputy first minister under Eluned Morgan.

Kinnock, MP for Aberafan Maesteg, is keeping a close eye on things.