Yadda zangon mulkin Trump na biyu ke barazana ga tattalin arziƙin duniya

Hauhawar farashi da kuɗin ruwa da haraji na nuna alamun cewa shekarar 2025 za ta kasance mai cike da sarƙaƙiya ga tsarin tattalin arziƙin duniya da ake sa ran haɓakarsa za ta " daidaita" da kaso 3.2, kamar yadda Asusun bayar da Lamuni na Duniya, IMF. To me hakan yake nufi ga baki ɗayanmu?

Mako guda cif-cif kafin bikin kirsimeti miliyoyin Amurkawa masu neman rance sun samu bashin - kan kuɗin ruwan da aka rage har karo uku a jere.

To sai dai kasuwannin hannun jari sun faɗo warwas saboda shugaban Bankin asusun rara na Amurka, Jerome Powell ya fito fili ya faɗi cewa su tsammaci rage farashi da kuɗin ruwa a 2025 kamar yadda suka yi fata, a daidai lokacin da hauhawar farashi ke ƙaruwa.

"Daga yanzu, an buɗe wani sabon shafi na kaffa-kaffa da rage kuɗaɗen ruwa," in ji shi.

A shekarun baya-bayan nan, annobar korona da yaƙin Ukraine sun janyo tashin farashi a duniya kuma har yanzu farashin na ci gaba da hauhawa duk da dai ba kamar a baya ba.

Amma duk da haka, a watan Nuwamba an samu hauhawar farashi a Amurka da ƙasashen turai da Burtaniya da kaso 2.7 da 2.2 da kuma 2.6. Kuma hakan na nuni da irin wahalhalun da manyan bankunan ƙasashen duniya suka fuskanta a ƙaƙarinsu na daƙile hauhawar farashin. Sun nemi rage kaso 2 kuma hakan abu ne da ka iya yiwuwa a cimma idan tattalin arziƙin na haɓaka.

To sai dai babban ƙalubalen da haɓkar tattalin arziƙin duniya ya fuskanta shi ne "rashin tabbas' da ka iya fitowa daga Amurka ƙarƙashin jagorancin Trump zango na biyu," in Luis Oganes, wanda shugaban hukumar da ke bincike kan tattalin arziƙin duniya a bankin jari na JP Morgan.

Tun bayan da Donald Trump ya samu nasarar lashe zaɓe a watan Nuwamba, yake ci gaba da yin barazana ga fito da sabbin haraje-haraje ga manyan ƙawayen abokan cinikayyar Amurkar da suka haɗa da China da Canada da Mexico.

"Amurka za ta ɗauki ƙarin matakan ƙara haraji waɗanda ke fatan samar da kariya ga kamfanonin ƙere-ƙere na Amurka, in ji Mista Oganes.

Sabbin haraji "ka iya zama masu tayar da hankali' ga Mexico da Canada amma kuma "za su yi illa" ga Amurka, kamar yadda Maurice Obstfeld, tsohon masanin tattalin arziƙin Asusun Lamuni na Duniya, sannan kuma tsohon mai bai wa Shugaba Obama shawara kan harkokin tattalin arziƙi.

Ya kafa misali da ƙere motoci a matsayin masana'antar da "dogara ga samuwar ababan hawa daga ƙasashen guda uku. Idan ka kawo wa harkar tsaiko, za ka haifar da babban cikas ga masana'antar ababan hawa".

Kenan yiwuwar kara farashi da rage buƙatar kaya da kuma gurgunta ribar da kamfanoni za su samu, da ka iya raunana sanya jari, kamar yadda ya ƙara haske.

Mista Obstfeld wanda wanda yanzu haka yana aiki da cibiyar nazarin tattalin arziƙi ta International Economics ya ƙara da cewa "fito da irin waɗannan haraje-haraje ga duniya da ta dogara kacokan kan kasuwanci ka iya zama illa ga haɓakar tattalin arziƙi a faɗin duniya."

Barazanar haraje-harajen sun taka rawa kan murabus ɗin da firaiministan Canada, Justin Trudeau ya sanar zai yi.

Duk da cewa mafi yawan abubuwan da Amurka da China ke siyarwa juna na haraji a kansu a lokacin zangon farko na Donald Trump, kuma akwai barzanar ƙarin sabbin haraje-harajen a shekaru masu zuwa.

A jawabinsa na sabuwar shekara, shugaba Xi Jinpin ya yarda da " ƙalubalen rashin tabbas daga waje", amma kuma ya ce tattalin arziƙin ƙasar na "kan mizanin haɓaka".

Kayan da ake shigarwa masu araha daga kamfanonin China na da matuƙar muhimmancin ga tattalin arziƙin ƙasar. Raguwar buƙatun kayan saboda ƙarin haraji zai ƙara damalmala matsalolin cikin gida da suka haɗa da zuba jari da kashe kuɗaɗen masu saye kaya marasa ƙarfi da gwamnatin ke ƙoƙarin ganin ta daƙile.

Wannan ƙoƙari yana biya kamar yadda Bankin Duniya ya ce wanda a ƙarshen watan Disamba ya ƙara hasashensa ga haɓakar tattalin arziƙin kasar China daga kaso 4.1 zuwa 4.5 a 2025.

China dai har yanzu ba ta kai ga zayyana abubuwan da take son cimma a 2025 ba amma kuma tana fatan cimma kaso biyar a bara.

Zaman tankiya tsakanin Amurka da China da haraje-harjen da suka ƙaru ƙarƙashin Biden na nuni da cewa wasu daga cikin kamfanonin sun fara tunanin zuwa wasu wuraren domin ci gaba da ayyukansu.

Sai dai kuma Mista hart ya bayyana cewa "China ta kwashe shekara 30 zuwa 40 kafin samun kamfanin ƙera motoci mai ƙarfi", a daidai lokacin da "kamfanoni suka yi yunƙurin daƙile irin wadannan ƙalubale...babu wanda ke shirin maye gurbin China baki ɗaya."

Wani kamfanin da ke da alamun yiwuwar ci gaba da kasancewa a tsakiyar hada-hadar kasuwancin duniya shi ne na ƙera motoci masu amfani da lantarki. An ƙera fiye da motoci masu amfani da lantarki fiye da miliyan 10 a bara a China kuma wannan mamayar ce ta sa Amurka da Canada da tarayyar Turai sanya haraje-haraje a kan motocin.

China ta ce ba su yi mata adalci ba kuma tana ƙalubalantar su a zauren Hukumar Sa Ido kan Kasuwnci ta Duniya, WTO.

Sai dai kuma yiwuwar ƙaƙaba ƙarin haraje-haraje da Donald Trump ke barazanar yi shi ne ma ya fi ci wa tarayyar turai tuwo a ƙwarya.

Jamus da Faransa su ne ginshiƙin haɓakar tattalin arzikin turai, to amma rashin kataɓus din da ke faruwa sakamakon rashin tabbas na siyasa tun daga bara na nufin cewa yankin turai na fuskantar barazanar rasa tagomashi a shekaru masu zuwa duk da haɓakar tattalin arziƙin da aka samu.

Wani mutum guda da zai buɗe wani sabon babi a 2025 shi ne Donald Trump tare da bujuro sabon tsarin tattalin arziƙi da suka haɗa da rage haraji da barin kasuwa ta yi halinta ka iya taimakon tattalin arziƙin Amurka ya ci gaba da bunƙasa.