'Trump na tunani kamar Putin': An kawo ƙarshen tsarin bin doka na duniya ke nan'?

Tsawon shekara uku tun bayan da Rasha ta mamayi Ukraine , Amurka da ƙawayenta sun ɗauki Rasha a matsayin abokiyar gaba tare da mayar da ita saniyar-ware a duniya wadda ta keta dokokin ƙasa da ƙasa.

To yanzu kuma Shugaban Amurka Donald Trump ya sauya wannan matsaya: inda ya sake ƙulla alaƙa da Moscow, kuma ya ƙi kiran Rasha a matsayin mai mamaya - ko ma ya bayyana Ukraine a matsayin wadda ake cin zali a yaƙin.

Wannan matsaya ta Trump ta fito fili ƙarara a gaban duniya a fadar gwamnatin Amurka - White House, lokacin da aka yi tankiya ranar Juma'a tsakanin shi Trump da mataimakinsa a ɓangare ɗaya da kuma Shugaba Zelensky na Ukraine a ɗaya ɓangaren, inda suka yi ta musu a fili kan yaƙin na Ukraine da kuma yadda za a kawo ƙarshensa.

Wasu na ganin bisa ga dukkan alamu tsarin siyasar duniya na sassaucin ra'ayi - haɗin kai tsakanin ƙasashen duniya domin tabbatar da cigaba da zaman lafiya da 'yanci da wanzuwar tattalin arziƙi cikin walwala ya kama hanyar wargajewa - to amma ko haka lamarin yake?

Zamanin Sassaucin Ra'ayi

Tsarin Sassaucin Ra'ayi na duniya ya ƙunshi haɗin-kai da aka gina bisa aƙida da manufofi na 'yanci da walwala a tsakanin ƙasashen duniya.

Jigon wannan tsari shi ne dokokin duniya da kuma hukumomi irin su Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya, da babban taronta da kuma kwamitinta na tsaro.

Tsarin na Sassaucin Ra'ayi yana kuma tattare da manufa ta bin wasu tsare-tsare da manufofi kamar - tsarin kasuwanci mai walwala ƙarƙashin hukumomi irin su Ƙungiyar Kasuwanci ta Duniya (WTO), da Asusun bayar da Lamuni na Duniya (IMF) da kuma Bankin Duniya.

Babbar manufa da jigon wannan tsari na Sassaucin Ra'ayi su ne cewa tsarun mulkin dumukuraɗiyya na Yammacin Duniya shi ne tsarin siyasa da gwamnati da ya fi kyau da kuma dacewa.

Babban taron Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya ko kuma hukuncin Kotun Duniya su ne za su iya ayyana abin da za a kira wanda ya saɓa wa dokokin duniya.

Daga nan ne kuma kwamitin tsaro na majalisar zai sanya takunkumi na tattalin arziƙi ko kuma idan abu ya yi tsanani ya ɗauki mataki na soji a kan ƙasar da ta keta dokar da aka kira ta duniya.

To amma a zahirance takunkumi da matakin soji yawanci ana ma ɗaukarsu ba tare da amincewar majalisar dinkin duniya ba - wanda wannan abu ne da aka dade ana sukar Rasha a kansa.

Da yake magana a taron ƙoli na tsaro na Munich a 2007, Shugaban Rasha Vladimir Putin ya ayyana cewa : ''Amafani da ƙarfi zai tabbata a bisa doron doka ne kawai idan har majalisar ɗinkin duniya ta amince da shi. Kuma ba ma buƙatar sauya wannan matsaya da majalisar, mu maye ta Nato ko kuma Tarayyar Turai.''

Da yake magana a Warsaw a 2023, tsohon shugaban Amurka Joe Biden ya bayyana yaƙin Ukraine da cewa ''babban yaƙi ne na neman 'yanci,'' da ake yi tsakanin masu bin doka da kuma masu ji da ƙarfin mulki.''

Cikakken yaƙin da Rasha ta ƙaddamar akan Ukraine ba kawai ya saɓa dokokin duniya ba kaɗai a idon ƙasashe da dama hakan na kuma nufin ta nemi ƙaddamar da wani sabon tsari na aiwatar da harkokin duniya.

Tun 2014, shi kansa Putin ya yi amfani da ƙarfin soji ba tare da amincewar Majalisar ɗinkin Duniya ba.

A idon ƙasashen Yamma mamayar da Rasha ta yi wa Ukraine tsabagen keta dokokin duniya ne da aka amince da su tun bayan yaƙin cacar-baka.

"Mun ga tsauraran matakai guda uku da aka saba," in ji G. John Ikenberry, farfesan siyasa da harkokin duniya a Jami'ar Princeton, a hira da ya yi da jaridar Financial Times.

"Ɗaya shi ne cewa ba ka amfani da ƙarfi ka sauya iyakokin ƙasashe. na biyu shi ne ba ka amfani da tashin hankali a kan farar-hula a matsayin yaƙi. Kuma na uku shi ne ba ka yin barazana da makaman nukiliya. To kuma Putin ya yi amfani da biyun farko sannan ya yi barazanar yin na ukun. To wannan ƙarara sheda ce ta saɓa doka da oda. In ji masanin.

A martaninsa ga wannan ministan harkokin wajen Rasha, Sergey Lavrov, ya ce matakin ƙasashen Yamma ba ya mutunta dokokin duniya da ma hukumomin Majaliar Ɗinkin Duniya.

A kullum Moscow na nuni da ruwan bama-bamai da Nato ta yi a Yugoslavia a 1999, da mamayar da Amurka ta yi wa Iraqi a 2003, da kuma amincewa da 'yancin Kosovo a 2008 a matsayin misalin abubuwan da ƙasashen Yamma suka yi ba tare da amincewar Kwamitin Tsaro na majalisar ɗinkin duniya ba - abin da Rasha ke cewa ya keta haddin dokokin majalisar.

Babban abin da ke zaman zakaran-gwajin-dafi kan mutuntawa da bin dokokin duniya na tsarin Sassaucin Ra'ayi shi ne matsayar Amurka a kan rikicin Isra'ila da Hamas ko Falasɗinawa.

Ƙasashe da dama sun yi kakkausar suka a kan gwamnatin Amurka ta Biden a kan irin taimakon sojin da ta bai wa Isra'ila inda suke zargin Amurka da nuna halin ko-in-kula da kisan dubban Falasɗinawa.

"Munafurci ne da kuma fuska biyu ko bakin-ganga ƙarara," in ji Numan Kurtulmus, shugaban majaisar dokokin Turkiyya, a tattaunawarsa da jaridar Washington Post. "Wani nau'i ne na wariyar launi, saboda idan ka bambanta Falasɗinawan da ake muzgunawa da kashewa da na Ukraine, hakan na nufin kana son ka kawo wani tsari na fifita wata al'umma kan wata a tsakanin mutane. Ba za a lamunta da wannan ba."

Ikenberry ya lamunta cewa wannan tsari ko manufa ta Sassaucin Ra'ayi kawai an alaƙanta ta ne da Amurka, da Dalar Amurka, da Tattalin Arzikin Amurka. Sai kuma Nato da Ƙawayenta saɓanin Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya da Kwamitin Tsao. Masanin ya ce a taƙaice kana iya cewa tsari ne na Amurka kawai amma ba na Duniya ba.

Sauyawar Amurka daga mai tabbar da doka zuwa mai saɓa doka

Ƙasashen da ke ƙalubalantar wannan tsari na duniya galibi ana yi mudsu laƙabi da masu neman sauya tsari (revisionist powers). Da daɗewa masu tsara manufofin Amurka da kuma masu sahrhi na kiran China da Rasha da wannan suna, inda suke cewa ƙasashen biyu na son ganin sun dusashe tasirin Amurka ne a duniya kawai.

To amma kuma a 'yan watannin nan, in ji farfesa Ikenberry, Amurka ce da kanta ta zama kan gaba wajen neman sauya wannan tsari da kanta, kuma gwamnatin Trump ta tashi haiƙan domin ganin ta rusa kusan duk wani tanadi da ɓangare na wannan tsari na Sassaucin Ra'ayi, kama daga kasuwanci da ƙawance da goyon baya na dumukuraɗiyya da kuma kare haƙƙin ɗan'Adam.

Sauye-sauyen da Trump ke yi kan harkokin diflomasiyya sun kasance na baya a farin jini a wajen al'umma.

Wata ƙur'ar sanin ra'ayin jama'a da aka yi kwanan nan ta nuna cewa Amurka sun fi son manufarsa kan baƙi fiye da komai, yayin da matsayinsa kan yaƙin Rasha da Ukraine da kuma rikicin Isra'ila da Falasdinu ba shi da goyon bayan jama'a sosai a kai.

Sama da kashi biyu bisa uku na Amurkawa na ɗaukar Ukraine a matsayin ƙawa inda kusan rabinsu ke goyon bayan shugaban Ukraine ɗin Volodymyr Zelensky.

Juyin-wainar da Trump ya yi wa diflomasiyya

"Ya zuwa watan Fabarairun 2025, Amurka ce ke barzanar sauya ko jirkita waɗannan dokoki na duniya," in ji Dr Julie Newton, mai bincike a kan harkokin Rasha da ƙasashen Turai da Asia a Jami'ar Oxford.

Masaniyar ta bayar da misalin wannan sheda da yadda Trump ke neman iko da ma'adanan Ukraine; neman gyara hulɗar Amurka da Rasha; yadda Trump ya caccaki Zelensky a gaban duniya da kuma goyon bayan da Trump ke bai wa abokansa na jam'iyyun masu tsattsauran ra'ayin riƙau a Turai.

A ranar 24 ga watan Fabarairu - ranar cika shekara uku d Rasha ta ƙaddamar da cikakken yaƙi a kan Ukraine - Amurka ta kaɗa ƙuria'r kin amincewa da matsayar Babban taron Majalisar Ɗinkkin Duniya da ta yi Allah-wadarai da mamayar da Rasha ta yi wa Ukraine.

A madadin haka jami'an diflomasiyyar Amurka sun fitar da wata sanarwa ne inda a ciki suke jimami da ta'aziyya ga rayukan da aka rasa a gaba ɗaya yankuna rasha da Ukraine a yaƙin,

Kuma a halin da ake ciki Trump ya sanar da cewa yana tattaunawa da Putin domin mayar da hulɗar kasuwanci da tattalin arziƙi tsakanin Amurka da Rasha.

''Juyin-juya-hali na ƙarfin tsiya da Trump ke yi wa diflomasiyya na lalatawa da watsa tanade-tanaden haɗinkai da tsaro da ƙasashen Turai 35 suka yi a birnin Helsinki na Finland (kan rasha da Amurka), tare da mayar da Amurka a matsayin abokiyar gaba a idon ƙawayenta,'' in ji Dr Newton.

Yarjejeniyar ta Helsinki ta 1975, tsakanin Amurka da Tarayyar Soviet da kasashen Turai na nufin kiyayewa da iyakokin ƙasashe da kuma hana tsoma baki a harkokin cikin gidan wata ƙasa a tsakaninsu.

"Trump na tunani irin na Putin—kamar mai mulkin mallaka na ƙarni na 19," in ji Sergey Radchenko, ƙwararre a kan harkokin Rasha a Jami'ar Johns Hopkins.

"Turai tana da ƙarfin tattalin arziƙi da kuma kuɗin da za ta iya matsa wa Rasha," in ji Radchenko. "Duk yadda Trump ya kai da tattanawa da Putin, abu ne mai wuya a ce ƙasashen Turai su mayar da dangantaka da Rasha."

Yayi wuri sosai a ayyana cewa an kawo ƙarshen tsarin Sassaucin Ra'ayi na Duniya, in ji Shelby Magid ta cibiyar masana kan harkokin Turai da Rasha da ke Amurka (Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center).

Har yanzu takunkuman da Amurka ta sanya wa Rasha suna nan, kuma gwamnatin Trump ta nuna cewa sai Rasha ta kawo ƙarshen yaƙin Ukraine za a cire mata su.

Masaniyar ta ce, "Na yarda cewa akwai haɗarin sasantawa da gayara hulɗa da wuri, to amma ba mu kai ga nan ba zuwa yanzu."

"A ƙarshe abin da zai faru ga tsarin na duniya, zai dogara ne ga galibi yadda aka kammala yaƙin da kuma wanzar da zaman lafiya, maimakon hanyar da ak abi wajen tabbatar da hakan." In ji Magid.