Yaƙin Rasha da Ukraine: Shin Trump zai iya tabbatar da tsagaita wuta?

Zaɓaɓɓan shugaban ƙasar Amurka Donald Trump ya yi alƙawarin kawo ƙarshen yaƙin da ake yi a ƙasar Ukraine a cikin "kwana ɗaya". A yanzu da yaƙin ke kara ƙazancewa, musamman yanzu da Ukraine ta samu sahalewar amfani da makaman ATCMS masu cin dogon zango da nakiyoyi, shin akwai yiwuwar samun nasarar shiga tsakani domin a tsagaita wuta?

A lokacin yaƙin neman zaɓe, Donald Trump bai fayyace hanyoyin da zai bi wajen kawo ƙarshen yaƙin ba, amma masana da dama sun yi amannar cewa ana tsare-tsaren ganin an kawo ƙarshensa.

Kyiv na tsammanin zaɓaɓɓan shugaban ƙasar na Amurka zai fara tattaunawa tsakanin ƙasashen biyu idan ya fara mulki. Shugaban ƙasa Zelensky ya ce yana so a kawo ƙarshen yaƙin a shekarar 2025 'ta hanyar diflomasiyya.'

Amma shin me hakan ke nufi a wannan lokacin, sannan me za a iya samu daga tattaunawar, kuma shin abubuwan da ke faruwa a fagen dagar, wanda yanzu ya kai tsawon tafiyar kilomita 1,000, za su iya shafar tattaunawar?

Fagen daga: Dakarun Rasha na ƙara kutsawa

Yadda al'amura suke faruwa a yanzu Rasha ta fi samun nasara a fagen daga. Rasha na ci gaba da kutsawa ta gabashin yankin Donbass da kuma yunƙurin kutsawa ta yankin birnin Kupyansk da ke yankin Khakiv da arewa maso gabashi da birnin Zaporizhzhia, wanda babban birni ne da a tsakiyar kudu maso gabas.

A watan Oktoba, Rasha ta mamaye ƙarin murabba'in kilomita 500 a yankin Ukraine - kutsawa mafi girma tun watan Maris na 2022. A cewar shugaban ƙasar, Zelensky, kashi 27 na yankunan Ukraine na ƙarkashin mamayar Rasha.

Masana da dama da wakilan jami'an tsaro sun bayyana BBC cewa Rasha na ƙoƙarin ƙara kutsawa cikin ƙasar Ukraine kafin a fara tattaunawar tsagaita wuta, wadda ake tunanin Donald Trump zai fara a Janairun 2025.

Ana tunanin shugaban ƙasa Putin yana so ne ya isa har zuwa birnin Donesk da Luhansk, ko kuma ma ya ƙwace iko da babbn birnin yankin, kamar na birnin Zaporizhzhia.

Shin makaman ATACMS da nakiyoyi za su ɓata lissafin?

Matakin da shugaban ƙasar Amurka mai barin gado, Joe Biden ya ɗauka na sahalewa Ukraine amfani da makamai masu linzami na Amurka masu cin dogon zango domin kai hari a yankunan Rasha sun kawo wani sauyi a yaƙin.

Tun farkon yaƙin ne aka ba Ukraine ATACMS, kuma sun yi amfani da su domin kai hari a yankunan Cremea da gabashin Ukraine, waɗanda dukansu yankunan Ukraine ne da ke ƙarƙashin mamayar Rasha.

A farkon wannan makon ne Biden ya salahalewa Ukraine amfani da makaman domin kai wa Rasha hari, matakin da Rasha ta bayyana da yunƙurin ta'azzara yaƙin da "ƙara zuba wa wutar yaƙin fetur."

Masana sun yi amannar makaman ATACMS, waɗanda suke cin zangon kilomita 300 za su ɗan taimaka wa Ukraine ne kawai. Masanan sun ce, Rasha ta daɗe tana shirin fuskantar hare-haren makaman, kuma wataƙila sun ƙara matsawa nesa da iyakokin ƙasashen biyu domin gujewa hare-hare.

Harin farko da Ukraine ta yi amfani da ATACMS, ana tunanin sun isa kusan kilomita 100 na Rasha.

Haka kuma Amurka ta bayyana shirinta na ba Ukraine wasu nakiyoyi manya, waɗanda Rasha ta daɗe tana amfani da su. Sai dai ba kamar irin na Amurkar ba, nakiyoyin na Rasha sun fi girma da muni. Kusan fararen hula 300 ne ake tunanin sun rasu a sanadiyar nakiyoyin a cikin shekara biyu da rabi.

Ƙungiyoyin agaji na duniya irin su Red Cross sun yi kira a daina amfani da nakiyoyi.

Ra'ayoyi mabambanta

A daidai lokacin da lamari suka ƙara dagulewa a filin daga ga Ukraine, an fara samun sauyin ra'ayoyi a game da yaƙin a kasar. Mutanen Ukraine sun gaji da yaƙin bayan luguden bama-baman da suka sha da rashin lantarki da rashin barci na kusan shekara uku.

Wani bincike da aka yi ya nuna cewa mutanen ƙasar da dama sun fara burin ganin an fara tattaunawar tsagaita wuta da Rasha, ko da kuwa hakan na nufin ƙasar za ta rasa wasu yankuna ga Rasha.

Wani zaɓen jin ra'ayi, wanda cibiyar masana ta Razumkov ta yi a watan Oktoba, ya nuna cewa mutum ɗaya a cikin duk mutum uku na ƙasar na so a tsagaita wuta.

Haka kuma wani binciken da aka yi a watan Oktoba ya nuna cewa wasu ƴan Ukraine sun yanke ƙaunar cewa ƙasarsu za ta samu nasara a yaƙin, duk har yanzu mafi yawansu na da fahimtar cewa za su samu nasara.

Jiran tsarin Trump

Bayan nasarar Donald Trump a zaɓen shugaban ƙasar Amurka, masu bibiyar al'amuran yaƙi sun fara tsimayin cikakken bayanin tsare-tsaren Trump na zaman lafiya.

Jawabinsa na farko bayan lashe zaɓen, ya bayyana cewa, "za mu yi duk mai yiwuwa domin kawo ƙarshen yaƙin Rasha da Ukraine. Dole a dakatar da yaƙin nan. Dole Rasha da Ukraine su tsagaita wuta."

Wasu kafofin sadarwa a Amurka sun ce Trump ya tattauna da Vladmir Putin ta tarho, inda ake tunanin ya gargaɗi shugaban na Rasha da ya yi kiyayi faɗaɗa yaƙin, duk da cewa fadar gwamnatin Rasha ta musanta labarin.

Ba kamar jam'iyyar Democrats ba, Trump ya fito ya bayyana aniyarsa ta naɗa wakili na musamman zuwa Ukraine domin jagorantar tattaunawar, wanda ita ma Ukraine din take gani akwai haske.

A daidai lokacin da Ukraine da Rasha ke tsimayin matakin farko da gwamnatin sabuwar gwamnatin Amurka za ta ɗauka a game da yaƙin, abu ɗaya a fili yake - duk wani yunkurin samar da zaman lafiya zai ɗauki lokaci kuma ba zai zo da sauƙi ba. Ƙasashen biyu da shugabanninsu, Zelensky da Putin suna da rawar da za su taka domin kawo ƙarshen yaƙin.

Hada hotuna: Angelina Korba