Ga yadda zaɓen Amurka zai iya sauya duniya

Lokacin da Shugaban Ƙasa Joe Biden ya kai ziyarar bazata birnin Kyiv a watan Fabrairun 2023 don nuna goyon baya ga Shugaban Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, ya ce: "Na ji wani yanayi na musamman."

"Amurka abar kwaikwayo ce a idon duniya," in ji shi.

Yanzu duniya na dakon ganin wanda zai karɓi wannan ragamar ta abar kwaikwayo a idon duniya bayan AMurkawa sun yi zaɓinsu a ƙuri'ar mako mai zuwa. Ko Kamala za ta ɗora kan sawun Biden? Ko Trump ne zai koma karaga?

Yanzu muna cikin wani lokaci da ake ƙara samun shakku game da tasirin Amurka a faɗin duniya. Ƙasashe na ƙara yunƙurowa, gwamnatoci masu mulkin kama-karya na ƙulla ƙawance, da kuma yaƙe-yaƙe a Gaza da Ukraine na ƙara jefa shakku kan rawar da Amurkar ke takawa.

Amurkar ta isa ne saboda ƙarifn tattalin arziki da kuma na soji da take da shi, da kuma kasancewarta cikin ƙawancen ƙasashen duniya.

Na nemi ji daga bakin masu nazari da dama game da tasirin wannan zaɓe a duniya baki ɗaya.

Ƙarfin soji

"Ba zan so na kambama wannan zance ba," a cewar Rose Gottemoeller, tsohon shugaban ƙungiyar ƙawancen ƙasashen Yamma ta Nato. "Donald Trump ciwon kai ne ga ƙasashen Turai saboda yadda ya yi barazanar ficewa daga ƙungiyar."

Kuɗin da Amurka ke kashewa a fannin tsaro ya kai biyu bisa uku na ƙasashen Nato 31 baki ɗayansu. Baya ga Nato, takan kashe kuɗi fiye da ƙasashe 10 cikinsu har da China da Rasha.

Trump na cewa ne yana matsa wa mambobin ne domin cika nasu alƙawarin, wanda shi ne ba da kashi biyu cikin 100 na jimillar arzikinsu na cikin gida - 23 ne kawai daga cikinsu kuma suka cika wannan sharaɗi a 2024.

Idan Kamala ta yi nasara, a cewar Gottemoeller "Nato za ta ci gaba da samun kulawa daga Amurka. Za ta ci gaba da aiki wajen ganin Ukraine ta yi nasara, amma kuma ba za ta ƙaƙƙauta ba wajen matsa wa ƙasashen Turai game da biyan kuɗin".

Ana ganin cewa ko ma wane ne ya ci mulkin zai fuskanci ƙarin matsin lambar ganin Ukraine ta daina gwabza yaƙin nan saboda yadda 'yanmajalisar Amurka ke ƙara tsanar amincewa da gagaruman kuɗaɗen tallafi da ƙasarsu ke bai wa ƙasashen duniya.

Ko ma me zai faru dai, Gottemoeller na ganin "Nato ba za ta wargaje ba." Akwai buƙatar Turai "ta ƙara ƙoƙari".

Mai samar da zaman lafiya?

Shugaba mai zuwa zai yi aiki ne a duniyar da ke fuskantar yaƙi tsakanin manyan ƙasashen duniya tun bayan Yaƙin Cacar Baka.

"Amurka ce kan gaba wajen ayyukan zaman lafiya a duniya," in ji Comfort Ero, shugaban cibiyar International Crisis Group. Amma ta yi togaciya da cewa "sai dai ikonta na sasanta rikice-rikice na raguwa".

Yaƙe-yaƙe na ƙaruwa. "Munanan rikice-rikice na ƙara guje wa sasanci, inda manyan ƙasashe ke rige-rige ƙanana kuma ke tasowa," kamar yadda Ero ta bayyana.

Yaƙi kamar na Ukraine ya janyo manyan ƙasashe da yawa, da kuma na Sudan da ya janyo ƙasashe maƙwabta da ke da muradu iri-iri.

Ero ta ce Amurka na ƙara rasa kimarta. "Ƙasashe sun lura cewa takan kalli abin da Rasha ke yi a Ukraine da wani ido daban da wanda take kallon abin da Isra'ila ke yi a Gaza daban. Yaƙin Sudan ya ɗaiɗaita al'umma amma kuma ba a kallonsa da muhimmanci."

Ta ce idan Kamala ta ci za a ɗora ne kan abin da ke faruwa a yanzu. "Idan Trump ya ci, zai iya bai wa Isra'ila ƙarin goyon baya ma kan ayyukanta a Gaza, kuma ya nuna zai iya yanke tallafin da ake bai wa Ukraine".

Kamala ta sha bin sawun Biden na cewa "Isra'ila na da haƙƙin kare kanta", amma kuma ta sha nanata cewa "dole ne a kawo ƙarshen kisan Falasɗinawa".

Shi ma Trump ya bayyana cewa "lokaci ya yi da za a daina kashe mutane". Amma kuma rahotonni sun ce ya faɗa wa Benjamin Netanyahu cewa "ka ci gaba da abin da ya zama dole".

Ɗantakarar na Republican ya sha bayyana kansa a matsayin mai son zaman lafiya. "Zan kawo zaman lafiya a Gabas ta Tsakiya, kuma nan kusa," kamar yadda ya ci alwashi a hirar da ya yi gidan talabijin na Saudiyya Al Arabiya ranar Lahadi.

Ya alƙwarta faɗaɗa Yarjejeniyar Abraham 2020. Wannan yarjejeniya tana gyara alaƙa ne tsakanin ƙasashen Larabawa da Isra'ila, amma kuma ana ganin ta yi watsi da Falasɗinawa a gefe.

Game Ukraine kuma, bai taɓa ɓoye yadda Putin ke burge shi ba. Ya ce zai kawo ƙarshen yaƙin ciki har da tallafin biliyoyin dala da Amurka ke bayarwa.

A gefe guda kuma, Kamala ta ce: "Ina alfaharin goyon bayan Ukraine. Zan ci gaba da goyon bayanta. Kuma zan ci gaba da ƙoƙarin ganin ta yi nasara."

Kasuwanci da China

Wani babban mai nazari a China Rana Mitter na ganin yunƙurin Trump na ƙara kashi 60 cikin 100 na haraji kan kayayyakin China a matsayin "babbar kaɗuwa ga tattalin arzikin duniya".

Saka haraji tsababa kan kayayyaki China da na saura na cikin burin Trump bisa aƙidarsa ta "Amurka farko". Amma kuma yana yaba wa alaƙarsa da Shugaban China Xi Jinping.

Ya taɓa faɗa wa jaridar Walla Street Journal cewa ba zai yi amfani da ƙarfin soji ba idan Chinar ta auka wa Taiwan "saboda shugaban yana ganin mutuncina kuma ya san ba ni da kirki".

Amma kuma duka 'yan Republican da Democrats ba su raga wa China. Dukkansu na ganin Chinar na yunƙurin doke Amurka ne a matsayin mafi tasiri a duniya.

Yaƙi da sauyin yanayi

"Zaɓen nan na da tasiri sosai ba ga 'yan ƙasar kaɗai ba har ma da duka duniya, saboda matsalar sauyin yanayi," a cewar Mary Robinson shugabar Elders - wata ƙungiyar shugabannin duniya da Nelson Mandela.

"Akwai buƙatar kula da duk wani taƙi wajen kauce wa matsalar ta sauyin yanayi, da kuma guje wa faruwar guguwa nan gaba," in ji ta.

Jagoranci a ayyukan agaji

Sakamakon zaɓen Amurka na da tasiri mai girma, ganin irin tasirin da ƙasar ke da shi ba kawai a ɓangaren soji da tattalin arziki ba, har da aniyarta ta jagorantar ƙasashen duniya," a cewar Martin Griffiths, wanda tsohon mai taimaka wa sakataren Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya a ɓangaren aikin agaji.

Yana ganin alfanu mai yawa idan Kamala ta yi nasara. "Mulkin Kamala zai ƙara ƙarfin gwiwa kan hakan," in ji shi. "Amma shugabancinn Trump zai mayar da hankali kan kaɗaici da wariya kuma ya haifar da ƙarin matsaloli a duniya."

Haka nan, Amurka ta fi kowace ƙasa bai wa MDD tallafi. A 2022, ta ba da kuɗi mafi yawa a tarihi na dala biliyan 18.1.

Amma Trump ya zaftare kuɗaɗe daga tallafa wa shirye-shiryen majalisar da yawa, har ma ya fitar da ƙasar daga Hukumar Lafiya ta Duniya. Wasu ƙasashen sun yi ƙoƙarin cike giɓin, wanda da ma abin da yake so kenan.

Biden da jami'an gwamnatinsa sun sha neman a ƙara yawan kayan agajin da ake aikawa Gaza. Amma masu suka na cewa tallafin ba zai taɓa isa ba.

Wani gargaɗi da gwamnatin Amurkar ta yi wa Isra'ila na katse tallafin soji idan ba ta inganta shigar da agajin ga Falasɗinawa ba, ya nuna ba za a iya ɗaukar matakin ba sai bayan zaɓe.