Intambara ya Ukraine: Ubushinwa bufasha iki Uburusiya?

Leta zunze Ubumwe za Amerika ubu naho zivuga ko ubutegetsi bwa Beijing buriko bwihweza ingene bworungikira Uburusiya infashanyo y’ibirwanisho n’ibindi bikoresho vy’intambara. Ariko ivyo Ubushinwa burabihakana bwivuye inyuma.

Ubushinwa bwoba buriko buraha Uburusiya Ibirwanisho?

Ubushinwa bwakomeje kugwiza ubushobozi bwo gukora Ibirwanisho, ubu bukaba bugeze mu kibanza ca kane mu bihugu bishorera hanze ibirwanisho vyinshi

Siemon Wezeman wo mu kigo ‘Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’ "Ibirwanisho vy’Ubushinwa ubu biramaze guter’imbere.”

Atanga akarorero kuri ‘drones’ z’Ubushinwa, nka kimwe mu bikoresho Uburusiya bwokwishimira kuroinka.

Leta zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zimeneysha ko ibigo vy’Ubushinwa bija vyaramaze guha Uburusiya infashanyo ‘itagizwe n’ibirwanosho vyica, kandi zemeza ko zifise amakuru mashasha yerekana ko ubutegetsi bwa Beijing bwimiriije gutanga nl infashanyo y’ibirwanisho.

Maria Shagina, umuhinga mu bijanye n’ibihano vy’ubutunzi mu kigo gitanga inyigisho ku nyifato zihuye n’ibibazo biri hagati y’ibihugu mpuzamakungu ciga - International Institute of Strategic Studies- avuga ko Ubushinwa ata birwanosho buraha Uburusiya muburyo bweruye ariko ko bwoba buriko buyigurishako ubuhinga bwa none buteye imbere cane, bugakoreshwa ku bikorwa vyerekeye igisirikare.

Yagize arti :"Hari ibimenyetso vyerekana ko Ubushinwa ari bwo bwa mbere bushorera hanze ibidandazwa vyo mu bwoko bwa ‘semiconductors’, bikoreshwa mu bintu dusanga vyifashishwa mu buzima bwa minsi yose bikorana n’umuyagankuba –‘electroniques’.

Urwo rudandazwa avuga ko bishikira Uburusiya biciye mu bigo Ubushinwa bwikingiriza biri muri Hong Kong na Emirats zunze Ubumwe z’Abarabu.

Maria Shagina yemeza kandi ko ‘Ibigo bimwe bimwe vy’Ubushinwa biriko bitanga drones zikoreshwa mu bikorwa bisanzwe vya ‘gisivile’, bwikinze mu kiza ko hatari itandukaniro rigaragara hagati ya drones zikoreshwa mu gisirikare canke mu gisivile gusa’

Ikigo Center for Advanced Defense Studies gifise icicaro muri Leta zunze ubumwe za Amerika, kimenyesha ko ibigo vy’Ubushinwa buriko burungika mu Burusiya ibice vy’ibikoresho vya ‘electronic’ biteranywa bigakorwamwo ‘missiles anti-aircrafts radars’, n’ukuvuga ibikoresho bishobora kubona no burizamwo ibitero vyo mu kirere

Leta zunze Ubumwe za Amarika zaramaze gufatira ibihano ikigo c’Ubushinwa ubutegetsi bwa Washington bwemeza ko cahaye amasanamu yafashwe n’ivyuma vya ‘satellites’ Uburusiya mu nzira yo gufasha abacangero babwo bari mu ntambara ya Ukraine.

Umunywanyi wa mbere w’Uburusiya mu budandaji

Inyuma y’aho Uburusiya butereye Ukraine mu mwaka uheze, Ibihugu vyo mu burengerazuba bw’isi bwabufatiye ibihano bikomeye cane -vyanka kwongera kubushorera amasoko ntanganguvu n’ubuhinga buteye imbere bwa ‘electronic’

Ibihugu vyinshi biteye imbere vyaciye umubano n’Ubururiya burundu, nayo urudandazwa rwayo na Leta zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, Ubiowngereza n’ ubumwe bwa Bulaya rurakoroka cane mu mwaka wa 2022.

Ariko n’aho biri uko, urudandazwa hagati y’Ubushinwa n’ Uburusiya rwo rwakomeje kuduga, aho rwiyongereyeko miliyaridi ijana na mirongo icenda z’ama dollars y’abanya Amerika ($190 bn) -n’ukuvuga ko rwaduze ibice 30% ugereranije no mu 2021.

Ivyo Uburusiya bwinjiza ivyo busumira mu Bushinwa vyongeyeko ibice 13% , kugera ku miliyaridi 76 ($76 bn), kandi n’ivyo bushorera mu Bushinwa vyariyongereye ibice 43%, bigera kuri miliyaridi 114 ($114bn).

Mu gihe guhanahana ibidandazwa hagati y’Uburusiya n’ibihugu bitunze vyo mu burengerazuba b’isi kwaganutse mu 2022, Ubushinwa bahindutse umunywanyi w’Uburusiya yabihese kure n’iyo mu rudandazwa.

Ubushinwa bugurira Uburusiya amavuta n’umwuka wa gaze bingana gute?

Hafi ica kabiri cose c’amafaranga yinjira mu kigega ca leta y’ Uburusiya, aba aturutse mu mavuta na gaze, nayo urugero rwavyo bwashorera mu Bumwe bwa Bulaya rwaramanutse cane mu kiringo c’umwaka ushize kubera ibihano bibwugarije.

Mu kuzibira ico kinogo Uburusiya bwerekeje mumasoko y’umugabane wa Aziya.

Ni nde ariko aragura amavuta na gaze vy’Uburusiya ?

Urugero rw’amavuta ya peterori abitswe mu mero y’amazi (liquid petroleum gas -LPG) Uburusiya bwashoreye Ubushinwa, mu 2022, rwoyongereye incuro kabiri ugereranije n’urwo um 2021.

Uburusiya bwarengeje ibice 50% kuri gaze bushora iciye mu nzira y’ umuringoti wo mu karere ka Siberie (The Power of Siberia), ndetse bwongera ibice 10% ku gitoro gishorwa kutayunguruye (crude oil).

Umuryango G7 uhurikiyemwo ibihugu biteye imbere kurusha ibindi kw’isi, hamwe n’ umuryango w’Ubumwe bwa Bulaya ndetse na Australia, vyagerageje gushinga icirointarengwa ku mavuta Uburusiya bushorera hanze aciye mu mazi, ariko Ubushinwa bwaranse kwumvikana na vyo, bukomeza kugura ku giciro gisanzwe kw’isoko mpuzamakungu.

Hari n’imigambi y’igihe kire kire yo kwagura iyo migenderanire mu budandaji

Ivyo bihugu vyompi vyemeranije kwubaka umuringoti mushasha wa gaze (the Power of Siberia 2).

Uwuhasanzwe watanguye gukoreshwa kuva mu 2019, hisunzwe amasezerano y’imyaka 30, afise igiciro ca miliyaridi amajana ane ($ 400 bn)