Ubwo Uburengero buzokwama bwumvikana ku kibazo ca Ukraine?

Mu gihe buke buke ingabo z’Uburusiya zigenda zitera intambwe, mu karere ka Donbas abahinga ba gisirikare nabo bakabona ko hari intambara ndende yo guhasha umwansi, ubwo nta migaga yoba yatanguye kwibonekeza ku bijanye n’imfashanyo Uburengero buha Ukraine?

Mu gihe abandanya kuyobora intambara yibereye mu biro vyiwe i Kremlin, Vladimir Putin yoba yibaza iki ku mpari ziri hagati y’ibihugu vy’Uburengero ku bijanye n’ingene vyoha imfashanyo nyayo Ukraine, be n’urugero rw’ibihano bikwiye gufatira Uburusiya?

Ku ruhande rumwe, arabona ingene reta z’Ubwongereza, Pologne n’iz’ibihugu vy’akarere ka Baltique zitera akamo ko akwiye gutsindwa bidasubirwamwo.

Mu ndwi iheze, Liz Truss, umushikiranganji w‘Ubwongereza ajejwe imigenderanire yavuze ati: “Dutegerezwa gukora ibishoboka vyose kugira ngo abanya-Ukraine birukane abarusiya”.

“Nta biganiro bishoboka ku bijanye n’ubutaka bwa Ukraine”.

Ariko ku rundi ruhande naho, Perezida Putin arabona ingene abategetsi mu Bufaransa, mu Budagi no mu Butaliyano batera akamo ko hakwiye kuba iyindi nzira.

Mw’ijambo yashikirije mu ntango za Rusama (5), Perezida Emmanuel Macron w’Ubufaransa yasavye ko intambara hagati y’Uburusiya  na ukraine zohagarara, anatera akamo Uburengero “kutemera kugwa mu gasuzuguro, canke kugira agatima ko kwihora”.

Umusi wakurikiye, umushikiranganji wa mbere w’Ubutaliyano Mario Draghi, mw’ijambo yavugiye muri Maison Blance/White House, yavuze ko abanyagihugu i Bulaya bashaka “kuraba ingene hoba agahengwe hanyuma ibiganiro nyavyo bigasubira gutangura”.

Inyuma y’aho, Macron n’umukuru wa Reta y’Ubudagi (Chancelier/Chancellor) Olaf Scholz bagiranye na Putin ikiganiro c’iminota 80 kuri terefone ku wa gatandatu mu ntumbero yo kurabira hamwe ingene Ukraine yoshobora gusohora intete iciye mu Nyanja yirabura (Mer Noire/Black Sea), icegera c’umushikiranganji wa mbere wa Lettonie/Latvia yararakariye bikomeye ku mbuga hwaniro.

Artis Pabriks yanditse kuri Twitter ati: “Biboneka ko hari abiyita abategetsi b’Uburengero batari bake bakeneye kwiteza isoni ku mugaragaro, kandi biyibagije rwose ukuri ku bijanye n’ingene poritike imeze.

Uruvangatirane rw’ibimenyetso

Birumvikana, umukuru wa Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika niwe araje ishinga Kremlin.

Ariko Joe Biden yagiye atanga ibimenyetso bitandukanye mu bihe bitandukanye.

Aha ni nk’igihe mu kwa gatatu guheze yita Putin “inkozi y’ikibi” mbere akumvikana asa n’uwuvuga ko ubutegetsi bwa Moscou bukwiye guhinduka.

Hagati aho, muri ino ndwi yerekanye amadidane ku vyerekeye kurungikira Ukraine vya muzinga “bishobora kurasa mu Burusiya”.

Uwahoze ari umushikiranganji wa mbere n‘umukuru w’igihugu Dmitry Medvedev yavuze ko ayo majambo “yumvikana”.

Ariko Kremlin ivuga ko ingingo ya Amerika yatangajwe ku wa gatatu yo kurungika vya muzinga vyisumbuye muri Ukraine “ije gusongera isibe”.

Mu gihe umukuru w’igihugu wa Amerika akunze kugwa mu mutego wo kuvuga ivyo atateguye, akenshi umunyamabanga wa reta ajejwe imigenderanire Anthony Blinken niwe yisanga ategerezwa gutanga intumbero irashe y’ubutegetsi.

Mu nama iheruka y’abashikiranganji b’imigenderanire bo mu bihugu bigize ishirahamwe ryo kwivunira umwansi hamwe, OTAN/NATO, i Berlin, Blinken yavuze ko Amerika n’incuti zayo vyari “birajwe ishinga no guha Ukraine inguvu zose zishoboka ku rubuga rw’intambara, hamwe no mu biganiro ivyo ari vyo vyose, kugira ngo ishobore gusubiza inyuma igitero c’Uburusiya yongere icungere neza intahe y’ukwikukira n’ubusugire bwayo”.

Amajambo akomeye, ariko kandi wosigura gute “inguvu zose zishoboka”? Hanyuma kandi kuvuga ngo gucungera “neza” ukwikukira n’ubusugire vya Ukraine bisigura iki mu bisanzwe?

None ubwo imigaga ntiyoba itanguye kwaguka mu mwumvikano w’ibihugu vy’Uburengero kuri Ukraine?

Ian Bond, , umukuru w’igisata kijejwe imigenderanire mu kigo Centre for European Reform, afatira ku biganiro vyamaze amayinga kugira ngo bashike ku ngingo yo guhagarika igice gito c’ibitoro biva mu burusiya, akavuga ati: “Raba honyene intambara yahabaye kugira bemeze ibihano mu vy’ibitoro”.

Iciyumviro ico ari co cose kiza kivuga ko Ubumwe bwa Bulaya bushobora gusubira vuba kugura gaze y’Uburusiya kiramaze kwigizwa kure.

Ibihugu vya Baltique hamwe na Pologne vyipfuza ko ibi vyoba vuba bwango ariko umushikiranganji wa mbere wa Estonia, Kaja Kallas, muri ino ndwi yaremeye ko “ibihano vyose bizokurikira bizoba bigoye gusumba”.

Umukuru wa  reta ya Autriche/Austria, Karl Nehammer, yavuze ko ibihano kuri gaze “ataco bizoba bivuze mu bihano biri imbere”.

Hakenewe ibindi birwanisho

Kyiv ivuga ko Uburengero bwayemereye vyinshi ariko bugatanga bike.

Muri ino ndwi, kubona Amerika n’Ubudagi  vyaremeye gutanga inkoho zigezweho zirasira rimwe ibisasu vya muzinga vyinshi, hamwe n’ibikoresho vyo gucungera ikirere be n’ama radars, vyarafashije gushira mu ngiro ivyihutirwa bisabwa n’intwazangabo za Ukraine zikomerewe.

Ariko ibivugwa ko Ubudagi bwagiye bukwega ibirenge mu gushira mu ngiro ivyo bwari bwariyemeje, hamwe n’uko Joe Biden abandanya ashimangira ko ibirwanisho vya Amerika vyokoreshwa gusa gutera Abarusiya bari ku butaka bwa Ukraine, bituma haba abibaza igituma Uburengero bushaka gushinga imibe kuri ino ntambara ya Ukraine mu gihe Uburusiya bwobwo ata mbibe bushiraho.

Ian Bond ati: “Hari ikintu c’ukwinengesera kibandanya nk’uko umengo twoba tuvuga tuti’ turashaka ko abanya Ukraine batsinda ariko ntibatsinde cane’”.

Abatari bake bazi ko Putin yatanguje iyi ntambara azi neza ko Uburengero butocutsa agatima ko kurwana.

Ibihugu bihurikiye muri OTAN, mu gihe ari ho vyari bikiva muri Afghanistan mu bimaramare, ntivyari gusubira kwita mu zindi ngorane ku rubuga mpuzamakungu

Amakuru aherutse kuva i Moscou avuga ko icizere ari cinshi cane mu Burusiya kubera intambwe ingabo ziri ku rubuga rw’intambara zigenda zitera hamwe n’icizere, nk’uko biri mu majambo y’isoko rimwe risubirwamwo n’urubuga ngurukanabumenyi Meduza,  c’uko “bitebe bitebuke”, Ubulaya buzoteba bukaruha no gufasha Ukraine.

Kremlin ishobora kuba yararyohewe n’amajambo yashikirijwe muri ino ndwi na reta y’Ubwongereza, aho igabisha ko imiryango irenga imiriyoni zitandatu y’Ubwongereza ishobora kugira ibibazo vy’umuyagankuba mu gihe Uburusiya bwohagarika gaze mu rushana ruza.

Ishavu ry’abanyagihugu  mu burengero rirashobora gutuma imfashanyo kuri Ukraine ihagarara?

Ikindi ikintu kibi gishobora gushika nk’uko Avril Haines arongoye igisata kijejwe igendereza ryo hagati mu gihugu  yabisiguriye abari mu nama nshingamateka na nkenguzamateka mu kwezi guheze.

Yabwiye abagize komite ishinzwe ibikorwa vya gisirikare mu nama nkenguzamateka ati: "Birashoboka ko [Putin] yizeye ko Amerika n'Ubumwe bwa Bulaya hazogera igihe bigacika intege”.

N’aho hoba hari impungenge zitewe n’ingaruka z’ivyo bo nyene bakora hamwe n’ubwoba bwo gutanga ibirwanisho, ivyo ibihugu vy’Uburengero biracahagaze neza ku vyo bumvikanye ku vyerekeye Ukraine. Ariko imigaga isanzwe ihari ishobora kugenda yaguka.

Ian Bond ati: “Mu gihe hogira uruhande rwotera intambwe, aha bica bitangura kugorana”.

“Mu gihe Abarusiya botobora impome za Ukraine mu buseruko hanyuma bagatera baja ku ruzi Dnieper, hoca haba ikibazo gihambaye co kumenya  ubutaka Ukraine yohava yemera gutakaza kugira ngo intambara ihagarare”.

Muri iyi nzira nyene, mu gihe ingabo za Ukraine zotangura gusubiza inyuma Abarusiya, Ian Bond avuga  “hoca haba ibihugu bimwe vyo mu Burengero bica bivuga biti ‘ntimuhirahire ngo murondere kwisubiza uturere twa Donbas tugenzurwa n’Uburusiya kuva mu 2014’”.

Ntiharagera ko iki kibazo gitera impari muri kino gihe, ariko igihe Henry Kissinger  yahoze ajejwe imigenderanire ya Amerika, atanga iciyumviko i Davos ko Ukraine ikwiye kwiyumvira ngene yoheba ubutaka kugira ngo ibane neza n’Uburusiya, yaratewe ivyatsi mu burakari bwinshi muri Ukraine no hanze.  

Ikimenyetso c’impari zibabaje ziri imbere.