Why death rumours of North Korea leader Kim Jong Un spread as e appear wit im daughter

Kim Jong Un show for North Korean state media and e look very healthy for pesin wey rumour spread say e don die brain haemorrhage.

Fotos wey di state newspaper Rodong Sinmun publish show as di 42-year-old dictator dey tour wetin di paper say na clothing and footwear exhibition wit im daughter.

Di fotos come out hours afta one Chinese dissident wey dey live for US claim, without evidence, say dem rush Kim go one hospital for Beijing for coma and e don die.

For pipo wey dey follow North Korea closely, dis kain rumour don bicom routine as e dey always spread.

As one of di world most secretive states, to verify facts most times dey difficult, and dat don create fertile ground for speculation.

How dis last rumour take start?

Dis latest claim bin start wit Wanjun Xie, one man wey identify imsef as di chairman of di Chinese Democratic Party, one group wey Chinese authorities don ban.

Bifor now, e bin don circulate unverified claims, wey include rumours about di death of Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Xie bin allege say Kim suffer one serious brain haemorrhage and dem rush am go Beijing becos North Korea no get di medical facilities wey fit treat am.

E claim say Kim later die and dem secretly body return im body North Korea, while di govment hide im death from di public.

Yet di photographs tell a different story.

Di fotos show as Kim dey inspect different displays, wit imy Kim Ju Ae plus im usual entourage of officials.

While no way dey to know exactly wen dem take di fotos, oda reasons bin dey for pipo to doubt di claim.

Wetin go happun if Kim Jong Hu health collapse

If Kim health suddenly collapse, signs go likely show even beyond North Korea borders.

China fit tighten security along dia frontier to prepare for potential instability or refugee flows. Activity around North Korean diplomatic missions fit also increase.

Defectors for South Korea dey often receive information through informal networks along di Chinese border. None of dis don happun.

South Korean intelligence officials, meanwhile, tell Yonhap say dem neva hear anytin to support dis report.

Di rumour also echo previous false alarms.

Why rumour of Kim death continue to spread

For 2020, one high-profile North Korean defector claim say im dey "99% certain" say Kim don die afta one cardiovascular surgery.

Not long afterwards, Kim appear for public and di rumour disappear.

So why do these rumours continue to dey surface? Di first reason na succession.

North Korea don dey under Kim family rule for three generations, but wetin go happun afta Kim Jong Un no clear reach how e be for im predecessors.

Kim Il Sung bin spend many years dey prepare im son, Kim Jong Il, for power. By di time Kim Il Sung die for 1994, dem don already establish di succession plan well. Kim Jong Il transition into power dey smooth without plenty problems.

Kim Jong Un rise bin dey very fast and more dangerous. Afta Kim Jong Il suffer one stroke for 2008, dem quickly promote im youngest son through di ranks. By di time im papa die for 2011, e don dey publicly identified as di future leader.

Even so, Kim Jong Un spend years dey strengthen im hold on power, remove rivals and deal wit anybody wey im see as threat.

Today, South Korea intelligence agency believe say e fit dey prepare im daughter, Kim Ju Ae, to succeed am. She don increasingly dey appear for important state events and military displays.

But pipo believe say she still dey only about 13 years old. North Korea neva get woman leader bifor, and dem neva officially name am as heir. Becos she still young, she fit also face serious challenges if power struggle happun.

All of dis uncertainty don help explain why rumours about Kim health dey always attract so much attention.

Di second reason na say di rumours no totally dey impossible.

Kim dey overweight and e be heavy smoker. South Korea National Intelligence Service don repeatedly warn say im lifestyle dey put am at higher risk of cardiovascular disease. Heart problems and strokes also dey run for di Kim family.

If anytin happun to Kim, di mata go get serious implications for neighbouring countries and di wider international community. Any sudden leadership crisis for North Korea go raise tough questions about who go control di kontri nuclear weapons plus di prospect of political instability.

Power struggle fit make hardliners bicom more aggressive? Unrest fit cause refugee crisis for di border between North Korea and China? Na these kain questions dey worry no be only Beijing and Seoul, but Washington too, wey keep around 28,000 sojas for South Korea.

Intelligence agencies dey watch Kim Jong Un closely so dem ready for any news.

Becos North Korea still be like black hole wen e come to information, e easy for false reports and rumours to spread about di kontri. Na only very small group of pipo get regular access to di leader.

Even intelligence agencies dey struggle to get reliable information, and plenty of di reports wey come out usually get warning say dem neva verify am fully, or say e highly likely, instead of confirmed fact.

Pipo also suspect say di govment dey deliberately encourage confusion, and na dem dey release misleading information to cover up wetin really dey happun inside di kontri.

So, e hard to believe say Wanjun Xie somehow get hold of dat kain big news, wen even pipo and agencies wey dia job na to monitor North Korea no fit uncover am.

E fit be say na attention im dey fin. Or if e be say im wan embarrass Beijing by drawing attention to China ties wit Pyongyang, although dos ties don already dey well known and visible to di whole world.

Whatever im motive be, Xie no be di first pesin wey go exploit di uncertainty surrounding North Korea leadership.