Image source, EPA/Shuttershock

Under a new government policy due to begin in October, more prisoners in England and Wales will be released earlier to tackle prison overcrowding.

The reasons why prisons are close to capacity have been explored in an independent review, which identified the following:

• England and Wales imprison more people per capita than nearly all other western European countries - just behind Poland
• An increased use of custodial sentences, with the likelihood of re-offending after serving a custodial sentence higher than after a non-custodial sentence
• A decline in non-custodial sentences - community order sentences imposed each year dropped 61% between 2010 and 2024

• An increase in the length of custodial sentences - the average custodial sentence for indictable offences has increased from 16 months in 1993 to 22.5 months by June 2024
• A rise in the minimum term of life sentences from an average of 13 years in 2000 to 21 years in 2021
• A large rise in the number of offenders being recalled to prisons in England and Wales - there were 51,419 licence recalls in the year ending March 2026, up from 40,259 in the previous year - a 28% increase
• The political landscape has been dominated by a "tough on crime" narrative, encouraging longer incarceration without looking at the broader implications and impact, the review found

Image source, UK POOL

We've been hearing from Andy Burnham again, this time speaking in Derbyshire. The prime minister has reiterated what he said in his earlier Facebook post about the early release proposals he's pushing forward.

When asked why he's now saying it is possible to exclude PC Andrew Harper's killers from the scheme when he previously said it wasn't, Burnham replies: "I didn't say that."

"I don’t want to see a single prisoner released early, and that’s the spirit that I’ve brought to the first three weeks that I’ve served as prime minister, and I’ve always worked like that."

Burnham goes on to say he's "never taken no for an answer".

"It’s always been my style, I won’t give up, and I believe there is more I can do.

"It’s my job to speak up for the public on this issue. I take that duty very seriously indeed, and I’m confident that there’s more that can be done, and will be done to address public concern."

Burnham adds that he has "never accepted" that there is nothing more that can be done.

Jack Fenwick
Political correspondent

This is the first big communications test for the new prime minister, who prides himself on being able to deliver messages effectively.

Andy Burnham said this morning he had "not accepted that it is impossible to do more" to prevent dangerous criminals being released early.

But that’s not the impression created by the government in recent days.

Yesterday lunchtime, Downing Street heavily suggested it could do no more.

Over the weekend, the Ministry of Justice said that exempting more prisoners from early release risked "prisons reaching capacity and collapsing".

And last week Burnham himself wrote in the Telegraph that he’d "pushed to the very limits of what is possible to do".

Justice Secretary Alex Norris even apologised to the families of victims including PC Andrew Harper.

The PM always maintained he wanted to do more – but the change in rhetoric from the government today is stark.

PC Harper’s mother Debbie Adlam told BBC Breakfast the handling of the situation had been a "hash".

Burnham says he has now asked the Justice Secretary to fast-track a plan to free up more prison space.

Downing Street will hope that the events of the last week will lead to the impression of a PM who has forced the system to do what he wanted. But they’ll fear that the lasting impression could instead be of a communications mishap that’s left victims’ families in anguish.

Image source, Getty Images

Andy Burnham says he has asked Justice Secretary Alex Norris to undertake three "strands of further work" to address concerns over the potential early release of PC Andrew Harper's killers.

The measures include:

• Increasing the "rate of removal" of foreign national offenders to their country of origin
• Finding "an early resolution" to Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) sentences. These sentences have no maximum term and were aimed at people who were dangerous, but whose offence did not lead to a life sentence. It was created in 2005 and abolished in 2012. Burnham says finding a resolution for them could allow "lower-risk prisoners" to be released
• Make more use of "the entire prison estate" - physical prison buildings and facilities - including "using the female estate for male offenders"

There is still a lot we don't know about Burnham's proposals, including how the government will implement the above measures. Stay with us as we bring you the latest updates and analysis.

Image source, Family Handout issued through Thames Valley via PA Wire

The prospect of PC Harper's killers being released early from prison under a new government policy has sparked criticism from his family, friends and some in politics. Here's a quick reminder of the various twists and turns to this point.

The Sentencing Act 2026 changed the rules for England and Wales around the sentencing and management of prisoners to ease overcrowding in jails.

Keir Starmer's government voted the scheme through in January 2026.

Some 6,000 criminals were due to be released at varying stages, and the scheme was due to come into force from 2 September. A revised version of the scheme will now begin from October.

But on 22 July, PC Harper's mother, Debbie Adlam, called the scheme - which could reduce the sentences of two of her son's killers - an "insult".

She told the Telegraph she had received a letter from the Ministry of Justice confirming the sentences could be reduced for Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers, who were sentenced to 13 years in custody for manslaughter in 2020.

A day later on 23 July, newly elected Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced he was pausing the scheme for review.

On 3 August, the government announced a revision to the scheme - that prisoners who committed rape, grooming, and serious child sex offences will be excluded.

Harper's mother Debbie Adlam previously told BBC Newsnight she was "devastated" that the change to the scheme still left two of her sons' killers eligible for early release.

On 4 August, Justice Secretary Alex Norris said there would be a "prison capacity crisis" if the government excluded any more people from the scheme.

Downing Street said yesterday it was "not possible" to exempt "one or two offenders" convicted of manslaughter.

But this morning, Andy Burnham seemingly contradicted that and says he is "increasingly confident" that work to free up spaces in prison will allow the government to prevent the early release of PC Harper's killers.

Today's statement from the prime minister appears to contradict earlier comments made by Downing Street.

This morning, Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said he's "not accepted that it is impossible to do more" - regarding stopping the early release of PC Harper's killers.

But yesterday, No 10 said it was "not possible" to exempt "one or two offenders" convicted of manslaughter from the early release scheme, but did add the justice secretary would look at ways to keep "a greater number of the most serious offenders" behind bars.

Image source, PA Media

In his statement, posted online, the prime minister has written more about his aim to stop the early release of PC Harper's killers.

"It will be based on a range of options including the three strands of further work I asked him [the justice secretary] to initiate last week: increasing the rate of removal of foreign national offenders from the prison estate to their country of origin; finding an early resolution to the long-running injustice of IPP sentences, which could allow for the release of lower-risk prisoners; and making greater use of the entire prison estate including using the female estate for male offenders.

"I am increasingly confident that a more focused approach along these lines will allow us to reduce the number of people released early and, in the case of the most serious offenders like those convicted of the killing of PC Harper, prevent their early release altogether.

"In advance of the Justice Secretary’s proposals being presented to Parliament, we will seek to engage other political parties in discussions with the aim of gaining the widest possible public and political consensus on the approach being taken.

"Murderers have always been exempt and our actions have already ensured that rapists, serious child sex offenders and those convicted of grooming offences will never be released early.

"And today I have shown a determination to go further.

"However, I recognise that, even with all these changes, there will be concerns from many victims about who will still be released early for other offences. I am doing all I can, but it is simply not possible to prevent all offenders from being released early without the prison system collapsing."

Here is more from Andy Burnham's statement, posted on his Facebook page:

"I understand the depth of public concern about the potential early release of those involved with the killing of PC Andrew Harper - and I share it.

"I fully appreciate the anguish of Andrew's family and, more broadly, of all those victims and their families who may see those who caused them such harm not serve their full sentence. "It is incumbent on me as Prime Minister to do everything within my power to minimise that possibility. And I am determined to do so.

"I have spent recent days considering in depth all of the issues involved and the range of advice I have received. I have been pushing for further progress. I have not accepted that it is impossible to do more.

"As a result, I have asked the Justice Secretary to fast-track the development of a plan for presentation to Parliament early next month to create more headroom within the prison system."

Prime Minister Andy Burnham says he is "increasingly confident" that work to increase space in the prison system "will allow us to reduce the number of people released early".

He adds: "And, in the case of the most serious offenders like those convicted of the killing of PC [Andrew] Harper, prevent their early release altogether."

After PC Andrew Harper's death, his widow Lissie led the campaign to introduce "Harper's Law".

Passed by Parliament, the law gives mandatory life sentences to the killers of emergency services workers. It also doubles the maximum penalty from 12 months to two years for those who assault police or other emergency workers.

Although PC Harper was killed in 2019, the new rules were introduced in 2022 and did not apply retrospectively to the sentencing of his killers.

That's one of the concerns raised by those campaigning against their early release.

Image source, Getty Images

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch says Andy Burnham "needs to act" to stop the early release of PC Andrew Harper's killers.

Writing on X, she says: "Two weeks ago I told Burnham to change course on early release. A week ago he exempted rapists and paedophiles.

"Today he's 'looking at' stopping PC Harper's killers being released."

Badenoch adds: "The victims have suffered enough. The delays & excuses are making it worse. The PM needs to act."

Image source, PA Media

As our earlier post mentions, Andy Burnham has asked Justice Secretary Alex Norris to come up with a plan to exclude PC Andrew Harper's killers from an early release scheme designed to ease prison overcrowding.

PC Harper, 28, died in 2019 when he was dragged behind the getaway car of three teenagers who had fled the scene of a quad bike theft in Berkshire.

Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers were sentenced to 13 years for manslaughter in 2020.

Under changes to the Sentencing Act made this year, Cole and Bowers will become eligible for release from custody next January after serving half of their sentences.

They are in a category of prisoners - those who have committed certain serious violent or sexual crimes - who until now would have had to serve at least two-thirds of their sentence in jail.

One of PC Andrew Harper's colleagues says she is "optimistic" the government will prevent his killers from being released.

Aileen O’Connor - chairwoman of the Thames Valley Police Federation, which represents rank and file officers - organised a petition against the killers’ early release.

It now has more than 900,000 signatures, which O’Connor says shows how the British public "have got behind this campaign".

Fighting off tears, she tells BBC Radio 4’s Today programme of the vow she made to "do something" on behalf of officers across her force and across the UK.

O'Connor says she has a "glimmer of hope and encouragement" following the latest developments, and believes Prime Minister Andy Burnham will "make the right choices".

Image source, PA Media

The mother of PC Andrew Harper, Debbie Adlam, tells BBC Breakfast of the anguish caused by "reading conflicting reports" about whether or not her son’s killers can be excluded from the early release scheme.

"I’m just getting more and more angry, I'm just in this turmoil," she says.

Adlam says that she received a phone call from No 10 last night, and was told that the prime minister "has more hope now of finding a resolution to this to try and keep them in prison".

"For me, it’s hope but I can't afford to be too hopeful, because we’ve been there before," she says.

Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers "weren’t given extreme sentences", she says, adding that she’s "not asking for a special case for my son".

"I'm only asking for them to do what they were given. I'm not asking for anything more than they were sentenced."

Jack Fenwick
Political correspondent

Housing Secretary Angela Rayner says the government is looking at freeing up more prison spaces to prevent violent offenders being released early.

Angela Rayner says ministers could explore quicker deportation of foreign prisoners, sentences given to female offenders and indefinite sentences handed out in previous decades.

She says the prime minister "doesn’t accept that we allow the most dangerous offenders out early on release" and said the "trauma" faced by the family of PC Andrew Harper and others was "unacceptable".

Rayner says the government also wants "stronger restrictions" on people who leave prison through the early release scheme and that Labour would build more prisons to prevent overcrowding in the future.

She says Andy Burnham had asked the justice secretary, Alex Norris, to come to Parliament in September with a plan to keep the most serious offenders in prison.