Archie Mitchell
Business reporter

Image source, Reuters

With world leaders - including Zelensky and Macron - warning that the US's easing of sanctions on Russian oil "does not help peace", the BBC has been speaking to experts warning that Russia stands to make huge financial gains.

For Russia

The move is "a serious bailout" for Putin's regime, says Benjamin Hilgenstock, head of macroeconomic research and strategy at the Kyiv School of Economics.

He estimates that Russian oil exports could be boosted by around $10bn (£7.5bn), with half of this being paid in tax straight into the government's coffers.

If the crisis in Iran continues for longer than a month or two, it could put Russia's economy "back in quite a comfortable situation", says Hilgenstock.

For the wider world

On a global scale, the move will "only scratch the surface" of the supply disruption in the Persian Gulf, says Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at Dutch bank ING.

"There is only one solution for the oil market and that is getting oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz," he says.

Patterson says that India and other Asian countries - that have been most affected by the Strait's closure - are most likely to buy up the newly-available Russian oil.

Image source, Reuters

During a visit to France, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says the US decision to ease sanctions on Russian oil "does not help peace".

Speaking at a news conference alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, he says it could provide Russia with about $10bn (£7.4bn) to fund its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Macron says Russia is "mistaken" if it believes the US-Israel war with Iran would "offer it a respite".

He also says that the G7 reaffirmed during a meeting on Wednesday that rising oil costs "must in no way lead us to reconsider our sanctions policy toward Russia".

Image source, Lebanese Presidency Press Office/AFP via Getty Images

The Lebanese president says he has not received a response to his proposal for direct negotiation with Israel amid its war with Hezbollah.

"I expressed my readiness to negotiate, but until now we have not received a response from the other side," says Joseph Aoun in a statement after meeting with UN Secretary General António Guterres in Beirut.

Aoun also criticises "Israeli aggressions" and says they "must be halted".

He has previously called Hezbollah an "armed faction" that gives "no weight to Lebanon's interests or to the lives of its people".

Israel argues that Beirut has not taken meaningful steps toward disarming Hezbollah, viewing it as the responsibility of the Lebanese government under a previous ceasefire agreement.

Alice Cuddy
Reporting from southern Lebanon

I’ve been speaking to people in the Lebanese capital Beirut after the Israeli military dropped leaflets over the city today, calling on civilians to act against Hezbollah.

Alaa Shikhani says he thought it was an air strike when he heard the bang of leaflets being released overhead.

He looked up and saw them in the sky, blowing to other parts of the city.

State media says an Israeli aircraft was flying at a low altitude before dropping the leaflets over a number of areas, including the Hamra neighbourhood of west Beirut.

The leaflets say: "You must disarm Hezbollah, Iran’s shield”, and “Lebanon is your decision, not someone else’s”.

They include a QR code, along with the phrase: “Unit 504 is working to secure the future of Lebanon and its people", referring to an Israeli military intelligence unit.

The Lebanese army has warned people against scanning the code, and people I've been speaking to here tell me locals are saying the same. One man has showed me a leaflet with the code ripped in half.

Ali Chedid, who is selling strawberries in Beirut after being displaced from his home in southern Lebanon, says there was a "boom sound, like a strike, and suddenly we saw the leaflets".

The 33-year-old laughs as he describes the wording on the leaflets as "gibberish". Another man says that "no matter what they do we're going to stay and resist".

The Israeli military has not commented.

Two crew members who were unaccounted for after a refuelling plane crashed over western Iraq yesterday have been confirmed as having died, the US military says.

It means all six people on board the KC-135 Stratotanker lost their lives in the incident.

US Central Command has not confirmed why the aircraft crashed, but said two planes were involved in the incident - the second of which landed safely - and no hostile or friendly fire was involved.

As we reported earlier, the Israeli military has been dropping leaflets over Beirut today.

According to the Lebanese army, the leaflets feature a QR code linking to a WhatsApp and Facebook platform to allow people to communicate with an Israeli army unit responsible for recruiting agents.

In a post on X, it "warns citizens of the danger of scanning the code and accessing these links due to the legal liability and security risks they entail, in addition to enabling the breach of mobile phones and access to personal data".

The BBC has approached the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) for comment.

The United Arab Emirates air defences have "engaged" seven missiles and 27 drones coming from Iran today, its defence ministry says.

"Since the start of Iran's brazen attacks, UAE air defences have dealt with 285 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and 1567 drones," it adds in a statement.

Earlier, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed Iran was acting out of "sheer desperation" by vowing to continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz - a key trade artery through which around 20% of the world's oil passes.

When questioned by reporters, he said that America was "dealing" with the disruption around the Strait.

Numerous ships have been reported to have come under attack in the area since the war began, and Iran's supreme leader yesterday said that Iran should keep using the "lever of blocking" the Strait.

About 3,000 or so ships usually sail through the corridor each month. In 2025, about 20 million barrels of oil passed through the strait per day.

It is deep enough for the world's biggest crude oil tankers, and is used by the major oil and gas producers in the Middle East – and their customers.

Israel attempts to capitalise on clear divisions in Lebanese societypublished at 13:39 GMT 13 March

13:39 GMT 13 March

Wyre Davies
Reporting from Lebanon

Image source, Getty Images

The Israeli military has been dropping leaflets over Beirut, calling for people to rise up and help ensure that Hezbollah is disarmed.

It’s a blunt attempt by Israel to capitalise on the clear divisions and tensions in Lebanese society over the damage being done by the war and Hezbollah’s decision to continue firing rockets against Israel in support of Iran.

Israel says it has been expanding the scale and scope of its bombing campaign, hitting targets across Lebanon in a wave of air strikes against Hezbollah’s weapons stores, control centres and financial institutions.

It has bombed targets in southern Beirut, the Bekaa Valley and an expanded exclusion zone in south Lebanon – forcing hundreds of thousands of people to leave their homes.

The Norwegian Refugee Council says that at least 800,000 (or one in seven) people in Lebanon have been displaced by the war – a number set to rise further and create severe humanitarian challenges as Israel bombs more towns and villages in its attempt to destroy Hezbollah as a military force.

Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer says "everything" should be done to prevent "profiteering", in light of fears energy costs will soar due to the conflict in the Middle East.

He adds that the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband will meet with petrol retailers and energy firms in Downing Street later today to discuss what they are doing to keep prices down.

He also shared that last night RAF Typhoons "extended their action to Bahrain".

Image source, Reuters

Hegseth's irritation felt like a sign the US is feeling the pressurepublished at 13:21 GMT 13 March

13:21 GMT 13 March

Tom Bateman
US State Department correspondent, at the Pentagon

Image source, Reuters

I’ve just left the Pentagon after Hegseth and Caine’s news conference.

It felt like Hegseth was trying to sell the war in the face of growing scrutiny from parts of the US media.

This, of course, is being driven by the spiralling oil prices, the apparent resilience of the Iranian regime and news of US military casualties.

Hegseth confronted the media from the start, saying the press needed to “admit” that the US and Israel were "decimating" the Iranian military.

The regime, he said, now looked up to the skies and saw the “stars and stripes and the Star of David”, which he called “the evil regime’s worst nightmare”.

He said its conventional weapons, arsenals and production were being wiped out, and the regime was cowering underground like "rats”.

He also called for a more “patriotic press”.

But on two key questions of strategy - how to secure the Strait of Hormuz and how to get rid of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile - the answers were largely evasive.

His irritation felt like a sign the administration is feeling the pressure.

We can now bring you a quick recap of news conference which took place in the Pentagon a short while ago (scroll back through our posts from 12:06 GMT for our full coverage).

• Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US would launch its highest volume of strikes over Iran, as it continued "decimating" Iran's military
• He said Iran has no functioning air force, air defence or navy, and that its missile volume is down 90%. He later said Iran would be incapable of building more weapons and soon all of their defence companies "will be destroyed"
• On the Strait of Hormuz, Hegseth accused Iran of "sheer desperation" - but claimed the US was "dealing with" it
• He said Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was "wounded" and "likely disfigured"
• Military chief General Dan Caine said the US priority was targeting Iran's mine laying enterprise in the Strait of Hormuz
• Asked about the fatal strike on a girls' primary school in Iran, Hegseth said the US was investigating and the US-Israel operation "never target[s] civilians" in the war with Iran

Easing oil sanctions will help Russia wage war longer, Kyiv sources saypublished at 12:59 GMT 13 March

12:59 GMT 13 March

James Landale
Diplomatic correspondent

The US decision to ease some sanctions on Russian oil sales is sending shivers across Europe, amid fears it could be just the start.

In a post on X, EU president, Antonio Costa, said the US decision was “very concerning” as it affected European security. “Increasing economic pressure on Russia is decisive for it to accept a serious negotiation for a just and lasting peace,” he wrote.

“Weakening sanctions increases Russian resources to wage the war of aggression against Ukraine.”

Here in Kyiv, there is real concern. Earlier this week President Zelensky said lifting sanctions on Russia would be a “serious blow”.

Zelensky said Russia would use the extra revenue from oil sales to buy more weapons and hoped strongly the US “will not make such a concession”.

Diplomatic sources in Kyiv said today: “This is a decision that certainly will not help stabilise the market, but it will help Russia wage war longer.

"This is despite the fact that it is Russia itself that is helping the Iranian regime destabilise the Middle East.”

Is Iran expected to meet the demands of both the US and Israel, or just the US, Hegseth is asked before the news conference wraps up.

He says the US is proud to partner with Israel, but "our objectives are our objectives" - and when those are met, "we'll set the tempo".

Image source, Reuters

The news conference in the Pentagon has just finished. We just have a few more key lines to bring you, so stay with us.

A reporter cites Hegseth as saying the US military has aerial and naval superiority over Iran - "yet you're not escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Why did you not plan for this?"

"We planned for it. We recognise it. Because ultimately we want to do... sequentially in a way that makes the most sense... and ensure we're sending the right signals to the world."

Hegseth is asked about a fatal strike on a girls' primary school in Minab, Iran.

• Iran has accused the US and Israel of hitting the school. Following the attack, US Central Command (Centcom) said it was looking into reports of the incident, while Israel's military said it was "not aware" of any operations in the area

Hegseth says Centcom has designated an investigating officer from outside the force, who "will take as long as necessary" to establish what happened in this incident.

He says the US-Israel operation "never target[s] civilians" in the war with Iran.

A journalist brings up reporting from Thursday that Iran was targeting the US state of California, which the White House later said wasn't true.

Hegseth is asked if Iran has the capability to conduct such a strike.

He says that US agencies remain across all potential threats to keep Americans safe, and that the reports "had no impact on us".

Iran has said they can do many things over time, including "engaging their proxies and getting them involved in the fight", which they haven't been able to do, Hegseth adds.

Image source, Reuters

Hegseth is asked by one reporter when the Strait of Hormuz may become fully operational again.

He emphasises the only thing disrupting traffic in the Strait is Iran.

He says that is why one of the US's primary objectives was to destroy Iran's navy, and that the US is working to make sure "energy flows".

Turning his attention to Iran's nuclear position, he says taking out Iran's ability to fire ballistic missiles will help ensure Iran is denied their nuclear capabilities.

Caine tells reporters in the Pentagon now that today will be the US's "busiest" day.

A few moments ago, Hegseth told reporters today would be the "highest volume of strikes" America has sent to Iran.

Caine concludes his remarks by handing back to Hegseth who opens the floor to questions.

Continuing, Caine says the US has...

• Attacked over 6,000 targets in Iran, and "maintained an unprecedented number of sorties up overhead of Iran"
• Rendered the Iranian navy "combat ineffective"
• Continued efforts to counter Iran's continued "capability to harm friendly forces and commercial shipping"
• Made it a priority to target Iran's mine laying enterprise in the Strait of Hormuz
• He says the US will also continue to target Iranian factories where weapons are stored