Yadda aka fallasa shirin Isra'ila na kai wa Iran hari

Har yanzu wasu masu binciken Amurka suna mamaki tare da fara binciken yadda wasu muhimman bayanan sirrin Amurka suka yaɗu a kafafen sadarwa.

Takardun, waɗanda suka bayyana a kafar Telegram a ranar Juma'a, sun ƙunshi wasu bayanai na sirri da ake tunanin bayanan nazari ne da Amurka ta yi a kan shirye-shiryen Iran na mayar da martanin a Iran.

A ranar Litinin, kakakin hukumar tsaro na fadar shugaban ƙasar Amurka, John Kirby ya ce shugaban ƙasa Joe Biden ya shiga damuwa sosai a game da yadda bayanan suka fita.

Har yanzu jami'an gwamnati ba sun kasa gane yadda takardun suka fita, inda suke ta tantamar ko dai an musu kutse ne, ko kuma satar su aka yi, aka fitar da su, in ji Mista Kirby.

Wasu makonni da suka gabata ne Isra'ila na bayyana ƙudurinta na ƙaddamar da hari a Iran a matsayin martani ga hare-hare Iran ɗin a Isra'ila a ranar 1 ga Oktoba.

A ɓangaren ta Iran ɗin, ta ce ta kai hare-haren ne bayan Isra'ila ta kashe shugaban Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah a ranar 27 ga Satumba.

Shin takardun bayanan sirrin na sahihai ne?

Masana harkokin tsaro sun ce rubutun kanun takardun sun bayyana alamun na gaskiya ne, kuma suna kama da yadda ake rubuta takardun bayanan sirrin na baya.

Rubuta ''Top Secret" a saman takardun da kuma "FGI" a matsayin "Foreign Government Intelligenc." duk sun nuna akwai ƙamshin gaskiya a takardun.

Sannan kuma alamu sun nuna cewa an yaɗa su ne a tsakanin ƙasashen da ake yaɗa bayanan sirri da su wato Amurka da Burtaniya da Canada da Austreliya da New Zealand.

Haka kuma rubutun ''TK" a takardun na nufin "Talent Keyhole," wanda ke nufin bayanan da aka tattara da tauraron ɗam'adam (SIGINT) da hotunan bayanan sirri (IMINT).

Me suka bayyana a cikin takardun?

Takardun guda biyu dukkansu muhimman bayanan sirri ne na Amurka, inda take nazarin shirye-shiryen Isra'ila na kai hare-hare a Iran.

Abin da aka fi maimaitawa a takardun su ne amfani da wasu manyan makamai masu linzami guda biyu da ake kira da Air-launched Ballistic Missile (ALBM): Golden Horizon da Rocks.

Rocks wani makami ne mai linzami mai cin dogon zango wanda wani kamfanin Isra'ila mai suna Rafael ya hada, wanda zai iya kai hari ta sama da ta ƙasa. Shi kuma Golden Horizon wanda ake kiran da Blue Sparrow, wanda yake cin zangon kilomita 2,000 (mil 1,240).

Wannan na nufin sojin saman Isra'ila na shirin ƙaddamar da hare-hare wanda ya fi wanda aka mata muni.

Sannan harba makaman masu cin dogon zango na nufin Isra'ila na so ne ta kai harin ba tare da jiragen yaƙinta sun wuce ta sararin samaniyar wasu ƙasashen yankin ba irin Jordan.

Amma takardun ba su nuna wata alamar shirin Isra'ila na yin amfani da makaman nukiliya ba, duk da cewa Amurka ba taɓa bayyanawa a zahiri ba cewa ƙawarta Isra'ila na da nukiliya ba.

Mene ne abubuwan da takardun ba su bayyana ba?

Bayanan da takardun ba su bayyana ba sun haɗa da wuraren da Isra'ila ke shirin kai hare-hare a Iran da kuma ko yaushe ne za su kai hare-haren.

Amurka ta sha nanata cewa ba ta so Isra'ila ta kai hari a kan cibiyoyin makamashin nukiliyar Iran.

Wannan na nufin ba ta so a kai hari a sansanonin sojin Iran, musamman na dakarun juyin juya-halin Iran wato IRGC, da na dakarun Basij, domin waɗannan dakarun guda biyu su ne zuciyar tsaron Iran.

A game da yaushe za a kai hare-haren, mutane da dama ba su yi tunanin Isra'ila za ta kai zuwa yanzu ba ta mayar da martanin ba. A watan Afrilu, ita ma Iran ta jira tsawon kwana 12 kafin ta mayar da martani ta hanyar amfani da rokoki 300 da wasu makamai masu linzami a Isra'ila a matsayin martani ga harin ƙasar a kan ofishin jakadancinta a Damascus, inda aka kashe mata wasu manyan kwamandojin dakarun IRGC.

Wataƙila daga cikin abubuwan da suka sa Isra'ila ke jan ƙafa, akwai fargabar da Amurka ke yi ta ta'azzarar yaƙi a yankin a daidai lokacin da ya rage wasu watanni kafin babban zaɓen Amurka.

Shin da gangan aka fitar da bayanan sirrin?

Wataƙila da gangan wani wanda yake so ya jawo tsaiko a kan shirye-shiryen Isra'ila ya fitar da bayanan.

Iran na da ingantaccen tsarin amfani da yanar gizo a yaƙi, wanda za ta iya amfani da shi wajen yin kutse.

Waɗannan takardun, idan suka tabbata sahihai ne, sun nuna cewa duk da alaƙa mai kyau da ke tsakanin Amurka da Isra'ila, da alama ƙasar ta Amurka tana bibiyir harkoin babbar ƙawarta ɗin, idan ba ta gamsu da bayanan da aka mata ba.

Takardun sun nuna shirin sojin saman Isra'ila na mayar da martanin a Iran shiri ne babba, sannan akwai wasu tsare-tsaren da suka yi na tsaro idan ma Iran ta ƙuduri sake mayar da martani.

A taƙaice: idan har Isra'ila ta ƙaddamar da waɗannan hare-haren, to lallai yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya zai sake shiga wata fargabar mai tsanani.