Monthly Outlook

An unsettled spell of weather developing later this week should be followed by high pressure rebuilding to bring another drier period in the first half of August.

Temperatures are most likely to stay above or at least near average, and some very warm days are still possible, especially in the southern UK.

Becoming unsettled widely at the weekend

With high pressure still exerting some influence, much of the UK should still have plenty of dry weather from Wednesday to Friday but there could be a little patchy rain, mainly in northern regions and especially north-western Scotland. Elsewhere, just a few isolated showers may crop up to interrupt periods of warm sunshine.

Temperatures will be near average across Scotland and Northern Ireland but above for much of England and Wales, with highs in some areas in the mid to upper 20s.

The pattern will start to change later on Friday and into the weekend, with high pressure declining away to the south-west. This will allow Atlantic frontal systems to move south-eastwards across the UK and bring bands of rain or showers across, some heavy with a risk of localised thunderstorms, while it also becomes windier.

It might not be until later Saturday that rain reaches the south-east, so one more warm to very warm day is possible here before all areas trend down a little on Sunday.

Changeable. Temperatures mostly above or near normal

Next week a similar broad pattern will most probably continue, with high pressure anomalies to the west and south-west, occasionally extending a ridge across the UK. However, it should weaken enough at times to allow further Atlantic frontal systems to move across the UK as low pressure systems track near or to the north of the northern UK. As a result, there will be further bands of rain moving across, interspersed with brighter but showery periods, and it will be breezy at times. Further chances of isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

Wettest conditions are likely to be across the northern UK, particularly Scotland. Precipitation amounts will be lower for the week elsewhere, and may be below average across southern England, although it is unlikely to be persistently dry, with chances of occasional weaker rain bands or showers.

Some very warm days in the upper 20s Celsius are still possible in the southern UK, especially later in the week, with chances of stronger high pressure trying to build. Temperatures elsewhere should overall be a little above or at least near normal.

Warm and becoming drier as high pressure rebuilds

Similar conditions may persist for a while but there are signs that high pressure may return more strongly across the UK before mid-August. For a while the northern UK may stay rather wet, particularly Scotland, but as high pressure tries to expand there should be a northward shift of Atlantic low pressure and frontal systems, with much of the rest of the UK becoming drier than average.

Most areas should end up with below-average rainfall through the middle of the month. Nevertheless, occasional chances of showers or thunderstorms remain, potentially more so in the south than the north if the axis of high pressure shifts farther north. Temperatures should be above normal with some very warm days possible.

Friday's outlook will again look at the expected changeable period and see how long it may last before high pressure rebuilds. There will also be a look towards the second half of August.