Monthly Outlook

After a more changeable and slightly less warm period there will be chances of drier and hotter weather returning at times during August.

Temperatures mostly above normal

Dry and hot weather will continue into Wednesday across central, southern and eastern areas of England, with temperatures exceeding 30Cs in places. Northern Ireland and Scotland will have outbreaks of rain, some rather heavy, while Wales and the north of England see patchier rain breaking out.

Thursday will have locally heavy rain in north and west Scotland, some thundery, while lighter and rather isolated showers break out in other parts of the UK, with sunshine in between. Maximum temperatures will be a little lower than Wednesday's.

On Friday high pressure will start to build from the south-west. Showery outbreaks will continue to affect northern regions on Friday, some sharp with a lightning risk, while drier weather settles across the southern UK, although an isolated shower cannot be entirely ruled out. Highest temperatures will be in central, southern and eastern regions of the UK, in the mid-20s Celsius.

The weekend should be drier more widely as the high pressure centre probably crosses the UK, but isolated showers are still possible. On Sunday there may be chances of rain eventually moving into parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland as high pressure drifts east and allows an Atlantic frontal system to approach. Temperatures will be above average in most places.

Changeable but still warm in most areas

Next week a more unsettled period looks possible. An Atlantic weather system should bring rain or showers across most of the UK early in the week, some heavy with a chance of thunderstorms and accompanied by brisk and gusty or even squally winds. The far south-east may see less rain than other regions.

For the second half of the week the outlook has rather low confidence. High pressure may become centred west of the UK and Ireland for a while, with a less warm flow of winds across the UK. Scattered showers are possible, and there may be thunderstorms, particularly in more southern regions. However, by the end of the week the south may become drier than the north as high pressure tries to build again.

Above-normal temperatures, below-average rainfall

Further stretches of high pressure dominance look like developing by the middle of August, and as a result more notable heat is possible, especially across England and Wales and particularly the south, as a hot air mass tries to expand northwards from continental Europe again.

Temperatures are most likely to be above average right across the UK. With the jet stream and main frontal zone likely to be pushed farther north, there should be rather dry weather, with below or near-normal precipitation amounts, although there will be chances locally of sharp showers or thunderstorms. Occasional frontal bands of rain are more likely affect the far northern UK.

The exact position of high pressure will be important to the exact outcome, but temperatures are still most likely to be above the August average right across the UK into late August, and potentially at times well above, especially in the south. If high pressure were to become centred farther north-west towards Iceland and Greenland, then it may be less warm.

Friday's outlook will take another look at the chances of recurring heatwaves in August and also take a glimpse towards the end of the month.