BBC Radio Leeds' Adam Pope thinks a tally in the "late 30s" will be enough for Premier League survival.
Leeds sit on 29 points in 16th place, with West Ham in the relegation places in 18th on 23 points.
"I still think something in the late 30s will do it," Pope told BBC Radio Leeds' Don't Go To Bed Just Yet podcast.
Kaiser Chiefs bassist Simon Rix says he is feeling "a bit cocky" given the Whites' recent form.
"If you think we only need nine more points from 13 games it seems mad," he says.
"West Ham need 18 more from their 13 games. When they only have 23 from the first lot of games, it seems, practically, like they can't do that.
"People are scared of us getting 42 points and still getting relegated. West Ham are in a great run of form but in their amazing run they've caught up with Leeds by two points. To me, it's very hard for them to catch us basically."
'Leeds fans don't know how good this team could be'published at 12:30 GMT 10 February
12:30 GMT 10 February
Adonis Storr Fan writer
Image source, Getty Images
When Leeds United's starting line-up was announced in a social media post from the club's account before kick-off last Friday night against Nottingham Forest, the most notable topic in the comments was disappointment that Ilia Gruev was starting.
The general sentiments can be summed up by one tweet: "Gruev wasn't good enough for the Championship, but they let him start every Premier League game."
While the Bulgarian is a defensive midfielder, his four assists and zero goals in the previous 67 league appearances before Friday night's 3-1 victory over Forest had not got everyone enthused.
But after being kicked in the head by team-mate Dominic Calvert-Lewin in the 65th minute, it was Gruev's name ringing out around Elland Road. At that stage, Leeds were 3-0 up, Gruev had two assists and was having his best game in a Leeds shirt.
But the Bulgarian midfielder didn't just play well last Friday, his performance was statistically one of the all-time great individual efforts seen at Elland Road.
One of the things the Leeds manager perhaps hasn't been given enough credit for, is improving players; and Gruev's performance has shown that even Leeds fans don't know how good this team could be.
When asked if Gruev was OK after a game in which he was kicked in the head, Farke said "Ilia is tough" and in that sense the Bulgarian is representing Leeds in more ways than one.
Chelsea v Leeds: Key stats and talking pointspublished at 08:26 GMT 10 February
08:26 GMT 10 February
Noel Sliney BBC Sport senior journalist
In-form Chelsea are seeking a seventh successive home league win over Leeds United, whose most recent victory at Stamford Bridge came in December 1999.
Nonetheless, Leeds won this season's reverse fixture 3-1 and are looking to complete their first league double over Chelsea since the 1991-92 title-winning campaign.
Chelsea making most of favourable fixtures
Seven wins in nine games has been an impressive riposte by Liam Rosenior to those who questioned his appointment as Chelsea head coach five weeks ago. On Saturday, aided by Cole Palmer's club record fourth Premier League hat-trick, he became just the second English manager to win his first four matches in charge in the competition.
The first, Craig Shakespeare, went on to win his first five with Leicester City in 2017 but was sacked six months later. Rosenior will be well aware how quickly fortunes can turn.
Rosenior's lack of experience at a top-level club means he is considered by some to be a gamble. The odds have been in his favour so far thanks to a kind run of league fixtures; Leeds and Burnley are up next, meaning Chelsea will have played five top-flight games in a row against sides in the bottom six at the time.
Their record against teams in the lower part of the table is the third best in the division. The greater test for Rosenior and his players will be to sustain their form in the games that follow, starting on 1 March with a trip to Arsenal.
Whites flag on the road
Leeds United are one of two sides, along with Brighton, among the current bottom eight to have beaten Chelsea this season. That was a 3-1 victory for the Whites under the lights at Elland Road in December, and they made it five wins from five in night games at home this season by beating Nottingham Forest on Friday.
Manager Daniel Farke, who was understandably delighted with "a massive performance and a massive win", took four points from his two previous meetings with Rosenior when the latter was in charge at Hull City in the 2023-24 Championship season.
However, Leeds have only won two of their past 25 Premier League away fixtures – both against Wolves, in March 2023 and September this season.
They have seven away points this season from 12 games. Only Wolves and Burnley have a worse away record, and Leeds have earned a lower proportion of their points on the road than any other side in the division.
Sutton's predictions: Chelsea v Leedspublished at 07:16 GMT 10 February
07:16 GMT 10 February
Leeds turned Chelsea over at Elland Road in December but they are not the same force away from home and this game smells of Chelsea revenge to me.
The Blues have made a good start under new boss Liam Rosenior, with four wins out of four in the league. Cole Palmer has hit form too, and they should win this fairly comfortably.
Jonny Buchan, Adam Pope and Kaiser Chiefs' bassist Simon Rix ask if they can afford to start looking up the Premier League table, rather than down it, and they delve into the fine form of Ilia Gruev.
Pope said: "Gruev has got to be one of the first on the sheet – he is so consistent. He has added something to his game. It is a hard case to remove him out of that side."
In his 78th appearance for Leeds in all competitions, Gruev provided two assists in a game for the first time.
Rix also supported Pope's view and said: "He has made a case for himself to always be in there."
Farke on Buonanotte, Struijk injury and staying calmpublished at 12:24 GMT 9 February
12:24 GMT 9 February
Leeds United boss Daniel Farke has been speaking to the media before Tuesday's Premier League game against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge (kick-off 19:30 GMT).
Here are the key lines from his news conference:
Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Ilia Gruev should be fit but Pascal Struijk and Anton Stach will miss out.
Offering more detail, Farke said: "Dominic was struggling with illness but I hope it's not too bad. Pascal Struijk will definitely miss this game, he has problems with his hip flexor. Stach will be back probably just for the Villa game. Apart from this I hope to have everyone available."
On Struijk, Farke added: "You miss a player with red-hot form. Pascal was a rock in the last weeks. He is the only left-footed centre-back. If you play with three at the back it makes a difference. A right-footed player has different passing angles. Also his strength in the air, in the last game he won so many headers. It is not ideal to not have him available."
On travelling to one of the big-name clubs on the road, Farke offered: "It is still the same game, same rules, 11 v 11. You feel more comfortable at home but it's still the same game. We travel with confidence, belief and if we perform well we know we have a chance on the road."
Farke reflected on the win over Chelsea in December - a result which started a superb upturn in form for Leeds: "Each time we win it's a pivotal game. There was no turning point. We had wins before, at home and on the road. One thing is for sure, it was a top performance and fully deserved win. Days like this don't come that often that you are able to dominate one of the big names. To win in this way, this is why we worked so hard for two and a half years to be back on this level. This result won't help us tomorrow. They may want to show a reaction and we maybe need to be more on it."
On a points tally needed to stay in the Premier League: "It doesn't matter if I change my assessment of how many points we need. It's not like if we achieve 38 points we want to stop winning points. In general, the data and stats say one point average per game you will stay up. If it's one out of 20 seasons or whatever where you need more points, then we need more points. I am not too concentrated on doing maths. I am concentrated on winning football games."
Facundo Buonanotte was left out against Nottingham Forest and asked if he has impressed since, Farke said: "We had the session on Saturday morning with a smaller group - Sunday a light one. It wasn't that you could impress too much in the session. He is a top guy and reacted in the way we expected."
Farke was asked about the form of Gruev and praised his consistency, stating: "He was always a very reliable player for us. You always get a seven-out-of-10 performance from him. He has a really good defensive awareness, tactically spot on, covers more than 12km every game and helps us with reliability in passing. He is an important player for us and going forward."
On the return of Dan James: "It's good we have him back. He was out for eight and a half weeks, relatively long. Even before it was on and off for him in terms of injury. He is a very experienced player, knows his body and what he has to do. He came back in good shape. Right now, each day, with us on the training pitch is beneficial. He looked sharp in training and was involved in the matchday squad. So it's good to have him back. Hopefully now he can stay fit."
Farke was asked how he stays emotionally level when his side come up against the Premier League's big-name teams and suffer setbacks: "The fire is burning inside and I am a pretty emotional person. If you want to be a manager at this level you can't jump around on the sidelines or in a press conference. The players need a proper leader who they know they can trust, who stays balanced and calm. I can't allow myself to burst out too often with my emotions. After the game, before the game, you are concentrated and focused. The players are emotional anyway. For such a passionate club, it never works if you can't handle the heat. Against the big teams you have mixed results. You can't always beat Man City, Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea, whatever."
'Outstanding' Leeds thump 'massively poor' Forestpublished at 10:00 GMT 9 February
10:00 GMT 9 February
Image source, Getty Images
Former Premier League striker Clinton Morrison reacting to Friday's result as Leeds beat Nottingham Forest: "It was bad for Forest. Credit to Leeds, they were outstanding. The players they have brought have done ever so well. The likes of Okafor and Calvert-Lewin look a threat.
"Leeds have a great chance to stay up as Elland Road is one of the hardest places to play.
"Forest were poor - massively poor. They need to be better than that. Pressure will mount on them. I still think they will stay up but it is going to go down to the wire. That was a six-pointer and Leeds were fantastic."
Telegraph journalist Luke Edwards on Nottingham Forest hosting Wolves on Wednesday: "Must win. Simple. The optics of it are terrible if you lose at home to the worst team in the league. They have that dilemma with Europe too. It will be emotional and will capture the attention of the players being in the knockout round.
"We praised Sean Dyche when he came in for making them hard to beat. I'm not so sure they are that hard to beat at the moment. That's when you're in trouble when that is a manager's philosophy - being hard to beat but you aren't."
Watch Premier League highlights and analysispublished at 11:15 GMT 8 February
11:15 GMT 8 February
Pundits Alan Shearer and Danny Murphy join host Kelly Cates to bring you the action and talking points from Saturday's Premier League fixtures and Friday's action.
Olivia: It was a great game to watch. Leeds showed so much flare and discipline. Really well managed and players giving everything for each other. I like the way James Justin stood up for Brenden Aaaronson when there was a bad tackle - no violence, just 'what do you think you're doing?' to the Forest player. The Leeds team is obviously enjoying their football. It's great to see Dan James back. Could have scored more and were creating lots but three is plenty... for now. Loved the crowd atmosphere. Bring on more evening games!
Peter: A superb result which was so very important. The attitude of every Leeds player was fantastic as always, working their socks of for each other. Played excellent football and it was a well-deserved result. We can't relax though as there's still a long way to go. In Daniel Farke we trust. MOT.
James: Farke has a point to prove after his previous experience taking Norwich City into the Premier League didn't end well. This time round with Leeds, he's hungry to show he's got what it takes and he's instilled a confidence in these Leeds players, who are also out to prove they have what it takes to be in this division. On current showings, it looks like they have.
Andy: Taking into account last week's result and the magnitude of Friday's game, I thought every player managed the occasion and pressure fantastically and left everything on the pitch, showing the fight and composure you need to survive in this brutal league. Special mention to our manager, who continues to impress, learn and evolve into a very astute and clever tactician. Roll on, Chelsea!
Forest fans
Tom: Stefan Ortega should never have started. Angus Gunn should have been between the sticks from the start. Don't understand starting Morato when the guy is clearly a liability in defence. Should have taken the £15m for him. And not starting Omari Hutchinson or Lorenzo Lucca when that partnership created our goal? Something needs to change on Wednesday, for sure.
Peter: Forest were inept and woeful. No plan on how to win the game, no fight or ingenuity on how not to lose the game. Sean Dyche looks out of ideas and we appear determined to be relegation candidates at all costs. Something needs to change.
Bob: Absolutely dreadful performance. Second best in every aspect of the game. Forest made Leeds look like world-beaters. No passion, urgency or energy. Embarrassing.
Simon: Forest had an off day and missed Neco Williams and Murillo. Morato gives possession away far too easily and I think it's time up for him. On the plus side, Lucca looks an interesting addition up front. He scored on his debut and he's a big distraction to the opposition defenders just because of his height. Let's see what the next couple of matches bring.
Analysis: Calvert-Lewin quality on show as England calls growpublished at 23:07 GMT 6 February
23:07 GMT 6 February
Nick Mashiter Football reporter
Image source, Getty Images
Chants of "England's number nine" rang around Elland Road as Dominic Calvert-Lewin's 10th goal of the season wrapped up the crucial win.
The relief was palpable.
He is the Premier League's top English scorer and his goals look as if they will fire his side to safety.
Calvert-Lewin's clever chested effort emphasised his confidence at a club which has helped him rediscover his form following his summer arrival on a free transfer.
He had scored just 13 goals in three seasons at Everton - last netting double figures in 2021 - but has revived his career in impressive fashion.
Few would have expected such a turnaround, but Daniel Farke has tapped into a scoring touch which looked to have deserted the 28-year-old.
It is the perfect time too, with England boss Thomas Tuchel having just one camp next month before this summer's World Cup.
Calvert-Lewin has not played for his country since 2021, but the clamour to add to his 11 caps will grow greater if he continues this impact and stays injury free.
Leeds 3-1 Nottingham Forest: What Farke, Calvert-Lewin and Justin saidpublished at 23:04 GMT 6 February
23:04 GMT 6 February
Media caption,
Leeds manager Daniel Farke, speaking to BBC Match of the Day: "Proud of my boys. An important game for us. A sign of a great mentality, a great spirit. Also a winning mentality when you are asked to deliver and you deliver in this way. Emphatic fight from my boys, great performance. We showed the other side of us, the fighting edge and the steal. A perfect win.
"We didn't allow them to develop the game - they have so much quality up front and in counter-attacks. We were very dominant. We started the second half strongly, but after a few injuries and getting a bit tired, they scored. We then showed so much maturity to bring it over the line."
On their home form: "As a promoted side, it's always important to have your home stadium as a fortress and Elland Road is a fortress. We edge three points closer. We are happy tonight but tomorrow we go again.
"Perhaps we should apply to always have a kick-off here on a Friday evening. It's then also up to the boys to deliver. It's important we use this atmosphere for emphatic performances."
On Dominic Calvert-Lewin: "Perfect goalscorer. A proven goalscorer at this level but also a guy who leads our lines. A great character in the dressing room and now he delivers."
On being on 29 points: "The other teams also have a game in hand. I don't think 29 points will be enough to stay in this league so we need to keep going. We are on a good path and if we deliver performances like this we will also have a good chance."
Leeds striker Calvert-Lewin, speaking to Sky Sports: "Everything came together. An all-round performance from the team. We had good discipline and managed the game well. Things went our way on the night. The conditions were difficult and we knew what they were going to bring. We knew we would have to have our tin hats on at times, and we did. We battled well and won the game.
"We've just done today what we have been doing for the past few weeks, executing our gameplan, on the ball and off the ball, trying to dominate possession and manage the game. We are trying to mature as we go through the season. Again we are not getting carried away. It is a massive three points for us and one we can take confidence from."
Leeds' James Justin, speaking to Sky Sports: "It's always nice to take the three points back to the training ground. We deserved it. We had to bounce back from last week against Arsenal. The lads put in a great shift and it's a massive three points."
On not dwelling on the defeat by Arsenal: "Some games in the Premier League, a team just blows you away, especially a team of their quality. If you don't turn up at your absolute best then things like that will happen. It was swept to one side and we had to focus on the big game tonight, and we did the job."
On whether he'll be focusing on this weekend's games: "We'll be recovering for Tuesday [against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge]. It's another chance to get points and get another result to keep us ticking over in the table. There's a lot to play for."
On competing with teams higher up in the table: "We're not afraid of anyone in this league and that's the way we like it. We'll fight in every game, give it our all and see what happens. Some of the football we played tonight was some of the best of the season. To put in a performance like that is a big one."
Leeds have earned 76% of their Premier League points this season at Elland Road (22/29), the highest proportion at home of any side in the division.
United's Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored 10 or more goals in a Premier League season for only the third time, after 2019-20 (13) and 2020-21 (16). Eight of those goals have come since the start of December – the most of any player in the division in this time.
The Commentators' View on 'consummate professional' Milnerpublished at 19:55 GMT 6 February
19:55 GMT 6 February
Image source, Getty Images
James Milner has been described as the "consummate professional" on BBC Radio 5 Live's The Commentators' View podcast, as he closes in on Gareth Barry's record for most appearances in the Premier League.
If Milner features for Brighton against Crystal Palace on Sunday, he will reach 653, the same number Barry finished with when he retired in 2020.
Speaking on the podcast, BBC senior football reporter Ian Dennis said: "I did spend a lot of time with him when I covered the England under-21s. There was a tournament in Holland in 2007 and then I remember him in Sweden in 2009 and spoke a lot to him when he was an England international at various England camps. And the way he has conducted himself, he is the model pro, isn't he? He is the consummate professional."
BBC commentator Alistair Bruce-Ball added: "The other thing when we're talking about being the consummate professional, 40 years old, he gets on for a minute or two at the end of that game [last weekend] and annoyingly when he's on, Everton equalise.
"You've got to do all the running after the game because you've only played a couple of minutes of football, but when you're in your 24th season of Premier League football, and you're still prepared to do all of that, that says something in itself."
BBC football correspondent John Murray touched on how much Milner will have had to look after himself to sustain the longevity he has had, saying: "It can't be a coincidence that he's kept himself fit over the years, which I think attests to himself being a professional. He's clearly had to look after himself to be able to do that."
Leeds v Nottingham Forest: Team newspublished at 19:07 GMT 6 February
19:07 GMT 6 February
Boss Daniel Farke makes just one change for Leeds for their crucial game with fellow strugglers Nottingham Forest.
The injured Anton Stach drops out with Noah Okafor replacing him.
James Justin is fit to start after a toe injury while Dan James is on the bench after a hamstring injury along with Jaka Bijol, who has been nursing his own hamstring problem.
Lukas Nmecha also returns to the squad but Facundo Buonanotte misses out.
Leeds v Nottingham Forest: Key stats & talking pointspublished at 13:28 GMT 6 February
13:28 GMT 6 February
Noel Sliney BBC Sport senior journalist
The result of this game between two relegation-threatened sides, currently separated only by goals scored, could do much for the mood in both camps. A win for either team on Friday night would open up a nine-point buffer above the relegation zone. Lose, and that gap could be down to three by Saturday evening.
Both sides are in decent form, with Leeds only losing two of their past 11 league games and Nottingham Forest enjoying a season's best four-match unbeaten run.
Leeds upping the ante
Leeds manager Daniel Farke was phlegmatic after his side's first defeat in six home games last weekend, a 4-0 thumping by league leaders Arsenal, and he believes 12 more points will be enough to stay up.
"Three wins and three draws, six positive results from 14 games," he said on Thursday. "I would back my players to get six positive results."
He has every reason to be confident. During their considerable improvement over the past two months, Leeds have beaten Chelsea at Elland Road and held Liverpool, twice, and Manchester United to draws.
Since their change of formation to 3-5-2 from the start of that run, Leeds have significantly increased their work-rate and intensity – which were already high beforehand.
They're covering almost 2km more per game from the beginning of December onwards – for an average of 115.8km – and are closing down their opponents with greater regularity. The Whites rank second in the Premier League for both metrics.
That high tempo is likely to be aided by the enhanced atmosphere at a night match. Leeds have won all four of their Premier League kick-offs at 7.30pm or later this season, with the highlight being a 4-1 thumping of Crystal Palace before Christmas when the energy of the crowd translated into on-pitch dominance.
Farke admits: "I'm a football romantic, I love the atmosphere under the floodlights at Elland Road when everyone is buzzing. The good record is no guarantee but we hope for a very special atmosphere again."
Improving Forest's unwanted record
Nottingham Forest have taken eight points from their past four matches, including consecutive away wins. They came from behind in November's reverse fixture against Leeds to earn a first Premier League victory under head coach Sean Dyche.
It means Forest are looking to complete the league double over Leeds for only the second time in the top flight, after 1995-96.
However, while Forest have the best head-to-head points tally among the current bottom six sides, with 12 points and only one defeat from seven meetings, they hold an unwanted record at Elland Road.
In 25 top-flight fixtures there, Nottingham Forest have never kept a clean sheet. It's the second longest such away streak in top-flight history, behind Birmingham City's run of conceding in all 37 visits to Blackburn Rovers.
Sutton's predictions: Leeds United v Nottingham Forestpublished at 12:30 GMT 6 February
12:30 GMT 6 February
Chris Sutton is making predictions for all 380 Premier League games this season, against AI, BBC Sport readers and a variety of guests.
His guest for week 25 is Gladiators star Apollo, real name Alex Gray, who supports Newcastle.
Sutton says: "I am at this game and we are getting to the stage where it really matters how the teams fighting relegation do in their head-to-head-battles like this.
"I think the bottom two, Wolves and Burnley are down, but you don't know what West Ham will do from here.
"There are signs they may click, so with Leeds and Nottingham Forest both on 26 points, this is big for both of them.
"From a Leeds point of view, their home form has carried them a lot this season.
"They got walloped at Elland Road by Arsenal last weekend but they just have to put that behind them for this game because, as the season has gone on, they have proved that they can be competitive.
"Forest's away form is actually better than their home form - they have picked up 14 points on the road compared to 12 at the City Ground, in the same number of games.
"Sean Dyche's side were comfortable with 10 men against Crystal Palace last time out and they have won their past two away games too, against Brentford and the Hammers. Overall, they are unbeaten in four league games, which is the longest they have gone without losing all season.
"As you can see, I've looked into all the stats for you - but will my research help me get my prediction right? Probably not.
"This is going to be a very tight affair, and Forest won't worry about having much possession, but scoring goals has been a bigger problem for them because they have missed Chris Wood badly - only Wolves have scored fewer than them.
"Forest have brought in 6ft 7in striker Lorenzo Lucca on loan from Napoli to try and fill the gap left by Wood's long-term knee injury but he has not been in great form in Serie A this season.
"So, after a great deal of thought, I am going to back Leeds at home - although now I've said that it will probably end up as a 1-1 draw.
'Manager's dream' Milner nears Premier League recordpublished at 10:48 GMT 6 February
10:48 GMT 6 February
Neil Johnston BBC Sport journalist
Image source, Getty Images
Twenty-four years after making his debut, James Milner, 40, will equal the record for most Premier League appearances if he features for Brighton against Crystal Palace on Sunday.
A stellar career spanning more than two decades, six top-flight clubs, 652 Premier League appearances, 61 England caps, three Premier League titles, two FA Cups and one Champions League triumph has also delivered some unexpected moments.
Milner is set to go level with Gareth Barry, who played 653 times, at the top of the all-time Premier League appearance list some 8,491 days after making his debut for hometown club Leeds United soon after leaving school in 2002.
Milner was just 16 and earning £70 a week as a YTS player when he broke into the first team at Leeds, six months after taking his GCSE exams.
Milner signed for Newcastle in a deal worth £5m in 2005.
Alan Shearer, who played with Milner at Newcastle, describes him as a model professional and a "manager's dream".
"You would do well if you had him in your squad because you knew exactly what you were going to get," adds former England captain Shearer.
However, a year after signing, Milner was sent out on loan to Premier League rivals Aston Villa, with then Magpies boss Graeme Souness defending his decision at the time saying "you won't win the league with James Milners".
Milner had impressed on loan at Villa so much that in September 2006 they offered around £4m to sign him permanently but Newcastle pulled out of the deal at the 11th hour at the end of the transfer window and he would not get his permanent switch to Villa for another two years.
In 2020 he opted for the challenge of reviving Manchester City's fortunes and left five years later having helped them win two Premier League titles, one FA Cup, one League Cup and one Community Shield.
"We won the Premier League together in 2012 but there were times that season when things were not going well," recalls former City defender Micah Richards.
"He was one of the people who kept everyone going."
After 147 top-flight appearances for City, he was ready for his next challenge.
Next stop...Liverpool, where he won the Champions League, Premier League, FA Cup, League Cup, Uefa Super Cup, Fifa Club World Cup and the Community Shield.
After Liverpool came an offer from Brighton in 2023 to prolong his top-flight career, where he continues to compete in what is his 24th Premier League season.
Milner became the Premier League's second-oldest goalscorer earlier this season and celebrated by recreating Diogo Jota's celebration in tribute to his former Liverpool team-mate, who died in a car crash last July.
"I've not scored [in the Premier League] for six years and I was wearing his number. Obviously, I've got help from the great man," said an emotional Milner after the match.
Image source, Google
Milner still remembers a conversation with veteran Leeds goalkeeper Nigel Martyn soon after breaking into the first team 24 years ago.
"He told me, 'Enjoy it while you can because it goes so fast'. I said, 'Leave it out, Nige, I'm 16!'
"And here we are in the blink of an eye - and I'm where he was."
Fine margins could help swing Elland Road showdownpublished at 08:19 GMT 6 February
08:19 GMT 6 February
Nick Mashiter Football reporter
Image source, Getty Images
It could come down to fine margins at Elland Road.
Nottingham Forest travel to Leeds knowing the victors would move nine points clear of the Premier League's relegation zone.
They are level on 26 points, six ahead of West Ham, and on goal different - with 16th placed Leeds holding the slender advantage having scored seven more.
But the winners will hold a commanding lead at least until the Hammers' trip to Burnley on Saturday as Daniel Farke and Sean Dyche look to take a giant leap to safety.
There will be nerves and expectation in equal measure on Friday night and one mistake could make the difference - which is where Leeds have the edge.
The hosts have made the fewest errors leading to a shot [11] in the Premier League this season and no team has made fewer mistakes leading to a goal than Leeds' three - Arsenal, Bournemouth, Manchester City and Manchester United have also made three.
Meanwhile, only Tottenham [28] have made more errors leading to a shot than Forest [27] while only four sides have made more leading to a goal than Forest's six.
Although, despite Leeds' stats, they have the worst save percentage and have conceded seven more goals than expected given the number and quality of chances they have faced.
Only Wolves [+12.4] and Bournemouth [+8] have underperformed their xG by more.
Both teams still tipped for survival
Forest have not been as solid at the back as Leeds - they have given up 20 more shots than this weekend's opponents and only Burnley [48.2] and West Ham [41.1] have given up more xG against in the league
While Leeds have conceded far more than expected [42], Forest have conceded fewer [35], mainly due to Matz Sels in goal although the Belgium international is likely to miss out this evening with a groin injury.
Yet both teams are tipped to stay up ahead of the current bottom three of West Ham, Burnley and Wolves.
The bottom two of Burnley and Wolves are rated to be all but down according to Opta, with West Ham having a 83.3% change of relegation to the Championship.
That is despite only Wolves [15] scoring fewer goals than Forest's 24.
But that is mainly due to Forest not taking their chances - they have had more shots than eight other teams but only Wolves [6.7%] have a worse shot conversion rate than their 8.5%.
Leeds have also struggled to finish their chances with only four teams, including Forest and Wolves, below their 10.4%.
