Derby County

Amelia Warren
Fan writer

Topsy turvy. Up and down. A mixed bag. All of these terms could be used to describe Derby's last three matches.

Returning from the international break, and looking more than on course to climb into the Championship's top six, Derby found themselves 2-0 up at home to Watford. That was despite losing their main man Carlton Morris to injury inside 20 minutes.

Then it all went wrong.

Individual errors, an inability to adapt to a change of opposition game plan, and unpopular substitutions, made a recipe for disaster as the Rams fell to a 3-2 defeat, throwing away a two goal lead.

Onto Swansea, a chance to bounce back, and bounce back they did. With the typical 'perfect away performance.'

The Rams lacked possession, finishing with only 27%, but were deadly when they were on the ball.

Full-backs Callum Elder and Joe Ward were getting high up the pitch, swinging dangerous balls in, creating opportunities, and eventually linking up to score the first goal.

The second came courtesy of Lars Jorgen Salvesen, a striker who hasn't played many minutes for the Rams this season, but when called upon he once again composed himself and tucked the match winner away like he'd been a regular starter all season.

Derby didn't let their 'crumble' three days prior get into their heads, as the Swans pulled a goal back late on. Instead this time they stood firm, managed the game, and defended resolutely to take three points and themselves up to seventh in the table.

Middlesbrough. A classic case of not killing the game off when you're on top, and being punished for it.

The dream start for the Rams, coming courtesy of Patrick Agyemang, after Salvesen once again showed his worth in the squad, by playing the American in behind for his third goal of the season.

Agyemang's composure was second to none, and must be given full credit in tough conditions, showing exactly why big money was paid for him in the summer.

Derby had chances to put the game to bed before half-time but they weren't taken, and with that Middlesbrough were given hope that allowed them to move up a gear in the second half.

Once again, the Rams found themselves losing a match from a winning position for the second time in the space of a week.

So what can Derby take from these last three fixtures?

The importance of adaptable striker partnerships:

Despite losing Morris who has struck 10 times already this season, the Rams haven't been short of goals without him, netting five times in the last three matches.

Agyemang and Salvesen have already proven they have a partnership that could be key whilst Morris is out on the sidelines.

Further attacking options include Ben Brereton Diaz, Rhian Brewster, Corey Blackett-Taylor and Kayden Jackson who can all interchange across the front line.

This doesn't replace Morris, but the strength in depth of forward thinking options definitely makes the concern a lot less severe.

Killing teams off when on top:

Something that may be crucial in Saturday's meeting with Leicester.

Whilst the momentum is in our favour, whilst the crowd are stirring up an atmosphere, whilst we may have them on the ropes, we must take our chances.

The difference between a top six Championship team and a mid-table one is their ability to manage a lead. Defending it and managing the game when not in control, and extending it to put the game beyond doubt when they are in control.

So far from what the Rams have shown, they fall more into the mid-table bracket for me.

Making changes that can impact the game:

A managerial critique, as happy as I am with John Eustace. Unfortunately Saturday was the prime example.

By the time the changes were made, it felt like the game was already lost. By the 80th minute the momentum was massively in Boro's favour, and it was more a matter of 'when not if' they were going to go ahead.

Bringing two players into the fold just four minutes before conceding the second goal epitomised that.

When the danger could be smelt by the hour mark, why could we not try and adapt and freshen up then?

It felt as though we were clinging onto a one goal lead, instead of trying to get ourselves back on the front foot. With the personnel entering the field not being those that you felt could 'change the game' or 'make something happen out of nothing' either.

Going forward, when the momentum swings out of our favour, I'd love to see the likes of Brewster and Blackett-Taylor come on to threaten the opposition with pace and power. Allowing us to relieve some pressure, and pose more of an attacking threat ourselves.

Looking to Leicester, it's probably the perfect time to play them.

Low on confidence, probably a little bit shellshocked with where they find themselves in the table, and home advantage on our side. I'd like to think we can cause them problems, in what I expect to be an entertaining contest.

You can often catch Amelia Warren, external as a guest on BBC Radio Derby.

Pride Park will want to see an emphatic win for their Derby County side when Leicester City come to visit on Saturday (12:30 GMT).

Though technically an East Midlands derby, the rivalry between the Rams and the Foxes has as much to do with history as it does location.

Over the past two decades, Derby have only managed three wins out of their last 17 meetings while Leicester have won nine of the past 11 - plus a First Division play-off win in 1994 that still carries a sting.

However, the visitors are struggling this season and it could be a good time for the hosts to claim their first victory over the Foxes since March 2013.

• Derby have lost seven of their last eight league games against Leicester (W1), with this the first between the sides since a 4-1 win for the Foxes in January 2014.

• This is Leicester's first away league game against Derby since a 1-0 win in August 2013. They've won three of their last four league visits to Pride Park (L1), keeping a clean sheet in each victory.

• Derby County have lost two of their last three league games (W1), as many as they had in their previous 13 (W6 D5).

• Leicester have lost five of their last eight Championship games (W2 D1), with only Swansea, Portsmouth and Sheffield Wednesday losing more than the Foxes since the first game in this run on 21st October (6 each).

• Derby have had fewer shots (155) and fewer shots on target (51) than any other Championship side this season, while also having the second lowest expected goals total (17.4). Despite this, only seven clubs have scored more goals than the Rams this term (25).

"You just wonder if Leicester City had faced the punishments that so many clubs have faced since then - Derby included obviously because it's still so raw for many people - whether the success of the last 15 years, the decade, would have come to their door.

"I feel quite bitter about that."

Former Rams striker Malcolm Christie is joined by BBC Radio Derby's Ed Dawes and Dominic Dietrich as they look ahead to a big clash against Leicester City and their own personal dealings with the Foxes.

Listen to the full episode of Rams Weekly and more Derby County content on BBC Sounds.

Ed Dawes
BBC Radio Derby commentator

Image source, Getty Images

I don't really know what Leicester are to us. They're not rivals - Forest are the rivals - but Leicester... they're tied to something in me that's never really gone away.

And it goes back to one day. Wembley. 1994 First Division play-off final.

I was 15. That's important, I think, because everything hits harder at 15.

Before that, Leicester were nothing to me. Just another game on the fixture list. We played them at the Baseball Ground, but I barely gave them a thought. That all changed in one afternoon.

Derby had this proper side that season - Lionel Pickering spending everywhere, Arthur Cox building something exciting until his back gave out and he had to stop. Roy McFarland stepped up and Derby somehow kept going.

It was a ridiculous season: score loads, concede loads, but in the second half of it, honestly, Derby were irresistible. Paul Kitson, Tommy Johnson, Mark Pembridge, Marco Gabbiadini, Paul Simpson... goals everywhere. It felt like something big was coming.

And with the Premier League still new and shiny and full of promise, I just wanted Derby to be there. I needed Derby to be there.

Then came Wembley. My second time going with Derby. The Anglo-Italian Cup the year before barely counted — half-empty stadium, bit of a novelty. But this was everything. Hot day, buzzing atmosphere, all of it pointing to Derby doing it.

When Tommy Johnson scored, I genuinely thought: "This is it. Derby are going up."

And then... the stuff that still bothers me happened.

Ball comes into the box, Martin Taylor gets smashed - absolutely wiped out - and referee Roger Milford, in the last game of his career, misses it. Misses the clearest foul I've ever seen in a Derby game. Ball drops to Steve Walsh. Tap in. 1–1.

And then the moment that still lives in my head. John Harkes goes through, rounds the keeper, and you're just shouting in your head: "Put it in. Just put it in."

And he doesn't.

And that was the Premier League right there.

Minutes from the end, Walsh again. 2-1 Leicester.

And everything in me just fell apart.

To make it worse, Gary Coatsworth - already on a yellow - makes another foul that would be a second yellow on any other day. Nothing given. Another decision gone.

And when the final whistle went, I just cried. Completely cried. Properly. Fifteen years old, Wembley way, tears everywhere. My sister Harriett just looked at me like she didn't know what to say. My dad Roger did what dads do - "Come on. Let's go."

We left immediately. No hanging about.

And then a Derby fan came up to me on Wembley Way and said: "It's alright, mate. We'll be back next year."

I still feel that moment, even now.

We went into London and I sat by the fountain in Trafalgar Square, still crying. Harriett didn't speak for two days. Just disappeared into her room. My mum Kelly was devastated.

Then we went to Garfunkel's before getting the train home, and as we sat down, Nat King Cole's Smile came on — with that line: "Smile though your heart is breaking" - and my mum burst into tears. It was like the universe was mocking us. And I just remember thinking: "How can football hurt this much?"

And then what happened after all that just adds another layer. Years later, Leicester go into administration. Wipe their debt. No points deduction, because the rules weren't in place. Brand new start. Then they get the Thai owners - brilliant owners, absolutely brilliant people - and they go on the most unbelievable journey: Premier League title, FA Cup, Europe, everything.

And I was happy for the story, genuinely, but there's always been that thought: Would any of that have happened if they'd been punished the way Derby were later punished?

Because when Derby went into administration, we got hammered. Rightly or wrongly, hammered. Points gone. Relegation. Years of struggle. Leicester had their clean slate. We didn't.

And since then, weirdly, we barely touch each other. We haven't played them in the league since 2014. One FA Cup tie in 2017. That's it.

So it's not a rivalry. It never has been.

It's just that day.

That moment.

That feeling.

Wembley 1994 is when everything changed for me.

It was anger and heartbreak and disbelief and a punch in the stomach you don't forget.

But it was also the moment I realised just how much football meant to me - how much Derby meant to me.

I don't know what Leicester are.

But that day?

That day has never left.

Image source, Ed Dawes

Striker Rhian Brewster may play a role in Derby County's game against Leicester City on Saturday (12:30 GMT), Rams boss John Eustace has confirmed.

Brewster has missed Derby's past three Championship games with a hamstring issue but is set to return to training on Friday, with Eustace not ruling him out of the Foxes' visit.

"Rhian will join back in the group, hopefully, on Friday so we will have to see if he will be available on the weekend," Eustace told BBC Radio Derby.

"He's made great progress over the past couple of weeks so hopefully he'll be ready to go sooner rather than later."

Defender Danny Batth will be available after missing the defeat at Middlesbrough with a knock but midfielder Lewis Travis (calf) is not yet ready to return.

Also missing will be midfielder David Ozoh, who is "three or four weeks away" nursing a thigh problem.

Listen to the full interview with Eustace and more Derby content on BBC Sounds.

Derby County manager John Eustace says Carlton Morris will be like "a new signing" when he returns to action in February.

The Rams boss gave an upbeat bulletin on Morris, who suffered an ankle injury in the defeat against Watford last weekend, despite initially fearing it was a season-ending injury.

"It is as good news on his scan as it could be," said the Derby boss after the 2-1 defeat against Middlesbrough.

"We don't want to miss him at all but he could be back inside 10-12 weeks which is great.

"We were very fearful he would be out for the season so it is not as long as we thought. We will get the big man back around February time, which is like a new signing for us."

John Eustace has addressed the possibility of signing defender Dion Sanderson permanently and replacing injured striker Carlton Morris when the transfer window opens in January.

Birmingham City loanee Sanderson is available for selection for Saturday's game against Middlesbrough after serving a suspension, and when asked if a permanent deal was on his radar, Eustace told BBC Radio Derby: "Possibly, for sure, I think he's done fantastically well.

"I obviously know Dion from my QPR days, Birmingham days, Blackburn days, so I know the kind of character he is. He's a top, top player in my opinion when fully fit and I think he's been proving that throughout this season.

"His performances have been excellent and most importantly, he's a really good human being, and he's another great character to have in the group, into the squad and his performances have been getting better and better, but also he drives the standards."

Derby are waiting for clarity on the injury to Morris, the Championship's joint top goalscorer this season, but Eustace has ambitions to bring in another striker if his absence is long term.

"We want to keep bringing in good players to the group if we can," Eustace said.

"It's about helping the squad and if that's available then brilliant. If not then we have to get on with it and we have to make sure we stick together and keep getting positive results."

Listen to more from John Eustace on BBC Sounds.

Kim Hellberg will take helm of Middlesbrough for the first time on Saturday (15:00 GMT) as his new side host Derby County.

Boro won their first game under caretaker boss Adi Viveash but subsequently only earned one point out of their following two matches to see them out of the second place spot on goal difference.

But Hellberg's introduction to the Riverside will be a testing one, with the Rams winning six of their past seven league matches (L1) to put themselves within touching distance of the top six.

• Middlesbrough have lost just one of their last 16 home league games against Derby (W12 D3), winning each of the last three in a row.

• Derby lost their last league meeting with Middlesbrough in March (0-1), but haven't lost consecutive league matches against Boro since a run of three from April 2014 to March 2015.

• Middlesbrough have only won one of their last six league games (D3 L2), conceding in each of those games; they last endured a longer run of conceding between October and December 2024 (9 games).

• Derby County have won six of their last seven league games (L1), winning each of their last three on the road; they last enjoyed a longer such run in the Championship in October 2014 (4).

• Derby's Andreas Weimann has been involved in four goals in his last three away league appearances against Middlesbrough (1 goal, 3 assists), providing a hat-trick of assists in Bristol City's 3-1 win in July 2020.

Derby County wing-back Joe Ward has said he considered retiring from football because of a recurring knee injury - but is now enjoying a run in the team.

The 30-year-old missed most of last season after requiring knee surgery for the second time in two years.

But Ward has now started the past five games for the Rams, providing four assists and scoring one goal in the 2-1 win at Swansea on Tuesday night.

"It's been so tough," he told BBC Radio Derby after victory in Wales lifted Derby up to seventh in the Championship and level on points with Bristol City in the play-off places.

"There have been points where I've really been struggling with my knee and at times I've thought I could pack this in.

"But I kept going and doing everything behind the scenes, working hard and being as professional as I can and now it's starting to pay off and I'm really happy.

"It's been a long journey. I've worked so hard and I'm still working hard. I'm feeling great.

"We're playing great and as long as I can keep helping the team with goals and assists, I'm really happy and hopefully we can push on."

Ward said "there is no ceiling" for this Derby side in their quest to win promotion to the Premier League for the first time since 2006-07 after a run of six wins in their past seven games.

"We're just going to keep pushing and see where we go," he added.

Swansea face play-off chasing Derby County on Tuesday (19:45 GMT) as they look to avoid dropping closer to the relegation line.

The Swans are currently in a state of limbo, awaiting the arrival of Vitor Matos to take the reigns with caretaker Darren O'Dea unsure about his future with the club.

However, the Welsh side may have caught a break in facing the Rams this midweek. Derby's five match winning streak came to an end on Saturday after a 3-2 loss to Watford and they may be without star striker Carlton Morris for the trip.

• Swansea have won each of their last three league games against Derby, as many as in their previous 17 against the Rams (D7 L7).

• Derby have won just one of their last eight away league games against Swansea (D3 L4), losing the last three in a row since a 3-2 triumph in February 2020.

• Having been unbeaten at home in the league between April and September (W4 D4), Swansea have lost three of their four at home since the start of October (W1).

• Derby have won their last two away league games, last winning three in a row in the Championship back in July 2020.

• Derby's Carlton Morris has scored six away goals in the Championship this season. It's already his second highest tally away from home in a single Football League campaign, netting nine with Luton in their 2022-23 promotion season.

Derby manager John Eustace fears the worst after the Championship's joint leading goalscorer Carlton Morris was forced off with a knee injury in the home defeat by Watford.

"It looks pretty bad," Eustace told BBC Radio Derby. "For the big man to come off it's got to be bad. At first glance it doesn't look bad so he'll get assessed tomorrow by the medical team and we'll take it from there."

Eustace was also disappointed by his side throwing away a two-goal lead, saying: "At 2-0 I thought we were comfortable. They had a lot of possession and are a really good team, and we switched off for that for that first goal they scored, that lack of concentration, and for the second game in a row we've given away a penalty where it was needless.

"At 2-2 we'd have taken a point with them on the front foot, and the way we conceded the third goal just wasn't like us, that lack of organisation and leadership."

If you're wondering where your team is going to finish in the Championship this season, you no longer need to worry.

Well, kind of.

Opta's supercomputer has worked its magic to figure out the most likely final league position of every team - and the chances each has of being promoted, making the play-offs or getting relegated.

Who is most likely to win automatic promotion?

It will come as no surprise that leaders Coventry are heavy favourites for the title (69.3%) and also have the highest chance of automatic promotion (84.2%) to the Premier League.

The next most likely to go straight up, with a 30.8% chance, are Middlesbrough. Despite currently sitting seventh and six points behind Boro in second, Ipswich are expected to be the third favourites for a top two finish (18.9%) followed by Stoke (14.1%).

Even though they've each enjoyed a strong start to the campaign, Preston (10.3%), Hull (6.1%) and Millwall (8.3%) have slimmer chances of finishing in an automatic promotion spot.

Who will make the play-offs?

Image source, Rex Features

Even if Coventry don't win automatic promotion, Opta's supercomputer has given the Sky Blues a 97.9% chance of a top-six finish, suggesting it's almost guaranteed.

Each of Middlesbrough, Ipswich, Preston and Stoke are expected to finish in a minimum of a play-off position at least one in two times.

Hull might feel the hardest done by as they sit fifth currently, but are said to have less chance (32.3%) than Millwall (38.8%) and Charton (32.4%), who are below them in the table.

The most likely of the chasing pack to make a surge up the table are 12th-placed Leicester City, who have been given a 31.8% chance of finishing in the top six and are more likely than Bristol City (28.9%), Derby (22.9%) and Birmingham (19.9%).

Last season's beaten play-off finalists Sheffield United have just a 1.8% chance of recovering their season to make the play-offs again, while relegated Premier League side Southampton (12.5%) aren't likely to either... if you trust the supercomputer!

Who is going down?

Image source, Rex Features

It's probably not hard to work out who is most likely to finish bottom and be relegated to League One.

Sheffield Wednesday's 12-point deduction, which has left them 17 points adrift of safety on -4 points, means they're pretty much nailed on to finish bottom (84.8%) - and failing that, are almost certain to go down (98.2%).

Second from bottom Norwich are the next most likely candidates to fall through the trap door (58.5%) but Sheffield United, who currently occupy the final relegation spot, have just a 22.4% chance of going down and are considered more likely to stay up than Oxford (37.8%) and Portsmouth (31.3%).

Derby County return to action after the international break to go in search of a sixth straight Championship win when they welcome Watford to Pride Park on Saturday (15:00 GMT).

The Rams have climbed into the top-10, within two points of the play-off places, having gone five games without a win prior to this run to drop to 21st.

The Hornets are the only side in the division without an away win this season, taking three points from their seven matches on the road in total but went into the break unbeaten in three games to lie 15th, two points behind County.

• Derby County have lost their past four Championship matches against Watford, losing both at Pride Park in this run without scoring a goal (0-1 in 2020/21, 0-2 in 2024/25).

• Watford are looking to win three consecutive away league games against Derby for the first time – they've also kept a clean sheet in their past two, having conceded in each of their first 20 visits.

• Despite having the fewest shots in the Championship this season (127), Derby County are on a five-match winning run. The Rams last won six league games in a row between December 2022 and February 2023 in League One, while in the Championship they last did so between October and December 2016 (7).

• Watford's Imrân Louza has been involved in 11 goals in his past 14 Championship appearances (6 goals, 5 assists), including scoring or assisting in each of his past five games (4 goals, 1 assist).

• Derby's Carlton Morris is the joint leading scorer in the Championship this season with 10 goals, scoring five in November alone. It's the most Championship goals by a Rams player in one month since Matej Vydra scored five in November 2017, while since 2004/05 only Chris Martin has scored more in a single month – seven in December 2013.

Derby County head coach John Eustace was back in front of the media on Thursday to talk about Watford's visit on Saturday.

The 46-year-old reflected on the five-game winning run that took them into the international break as the Championship's most in form side.

"It's over the course of 15 games that they got themselves into a good position," he told BBC Radio Derby.

"They have been working their socks off for the past four months and there is a hell of a lot of hard work to go."

He gave a number of injury updates, saying midfielder David Ozoh could be back from injury in three weeks, while Max Johnston is "back on the grass" and a few weeks away from a return while Lewis Travis is "improving" but has undergone more scans to get a clearer picture of when he is due back from a calf problem.

On-loan defender Owen Beck, however, will return to parent club Liverpool after suffering a hamstring injury.

You can listen to all Eustace had to say to BBC Radio Derby - including what he made of the legion of Rams players that were in action for their national sides over the past two weeks - by clicking the play button above.

For all the latest interviews and analysis on the Rams, go to dedicated Derby County page on BBC Sounds.