Bristol City

If you're wondering where your team is going to finish in the Championship this season, you no longer need to worry.

Well, kind of.

Opta's supercomputer has worked its magic to figure out the most likely final league position of every team - and the chances each has of being promoted, making the play-offs or getting relegated.

Who is most likely to win automatic promotion?

It will come as no surprise that leaders Coventry are heavy favourites for the title (69.3%) and also have the highest chance of automatic promotion (84.2%) to the Premier League.

The next most likely to go straight up, with a 30.8% chance, are Middlesbrough. Despite currently sitting seventh and six points behind Boro in second, Ipswich are expected to be the third favourites for a top two finish (18.9%) followed by Stoke (14.1%).

Even though they've each enjoyed a strong start to the campaign, Preston (10.3%), Hull (6.1%) and Millwall (8.3%) have slimmer chances of finishing in an automatic promotion spot.

Who will make the play-offs?

Image source, Rex Features

Even if Coventry don't win automatic promotion, Opta's supercomputer has given the Sky Blues a 97.9% chance of a top-six finish, suggesting it's almost guaranteed.

Each of Middlesbrough, Ipswich, Preston and Stoke are expected to finish in a minimum of a play-off position at least one in two times.

Hull might feel the hardest done by as they sit fifth currently, but are said to have less chance (32.3%) than Millwall (38.8%) and Charton (32.4%), who are below them in the table.

The most likely of the chasing pack to make a surge up the table are 12th-placed Leicester City, who have been given a 31.8% chance of finishing in the top six and are more likely than Bristol City (28.9%), Derby (22.9%) and Birmingham (19.9%).

Last season's beaten play-off finalists Sheffield United have just a 1.8% chance of recovering their season to make the play-offs again, while relegated Premier League side Southampton (12.5%) aren't likely to either... if you trust the supercomputer!

Who is going down?

Image source, Rex Features

It's probably not hard to work out who is most likely to finish bottom and be relegated to League One.

Sheffield Wednesday's 12-point deduction, which has left them 17 points adrift of safety on -4 points, means they're pretty much nailed on to finish bottom (84.8%) - and failing that, are almost certain to go down (98.2%).

Second from bottom Norwich are the next most likely candidates to fall through the trap door (58.5%) but Sheffield United, who currently occupy the final relegation spot, have just a 22.4% chance of going down and are considered more likely to stay up than Oxford (37.8%) and Portsmouth (31.3%).

Swansea will head to Bristol City on Saturday (12:30 GMT) for their first match since sacking boss Alan Sheehan.

Assistant boss Darren O'Dea will take lead of the Swans as they search for a successor who can help them avoid a relegation scrap, while the Robins are winless in three and will be hoping a victory can help lift them back into the top six.

• Bristol City have won one of their last six home league matches against Swansea (D3 L2), a 1-0 win in the 2023-24 season.

• Following a 1-0 win at Ashton Gate last season, Swansea are looking to win consecutive away league matches at Bristol City for the very first time.

• This will be Bristol City manager Gerhard Struber's 50th Championship match as a manager (34 with Barnsley, 15 with the Robins so far). His only previous game against Swansea ended 0-0 in December 2019 as Tykes boss.

• In the Championship in 2025-26, Swansea rank second bottom for shots (159), third bottom for shots on target (49), second bottom for touches in the opposition box (249), bottom for expected goals (12.5) and bottom for big chances (15).

• Bristol City's Scott Twine has six goals in 15 Championship appearances this season, one more than he netted in 36 games last campaign (5). Four of his 11 goals in the last two seasons have been direct free-kicks, the most of any Championship player in that time.

David Pottier
Fan writer

Image source, Shuttershock

When Scott Twine lashed home City's equaliser at Vicarage Road in the last game before the international break, it cemented his position as the most prolific free-kick taker in the EFL over the past seven years.

It got me thinking how many other dead-ball specialists I could recall in my 58 years of supporting the club.

While he didn't earn his reputation with us [he only played 12 games in 1973-74], I was minded to recall the late Ernie Hunt who earned notoriety when playing for Coventry in 1970 with the famous 'donkey kick' set up for him by Willie Carr and, fortunately, captured by the Match of the Day cameras in the days when not every game was covered.

Such was the audacity of the manoeuvre the FA immediately outlawed it!

Roll the clock forward a few years and with City in the top flight the fans had the pleasure of seeing the late Norman 'Bite Your Legs' Hunter gracing the Ashton Gate turf. Yes, he could tackle but he could also strike a ball with venom.

He only scored four goals in his three seasons at the club and one free-kick sticks in the memory from September 1978 when his rocket shot into the roof of the net gave the Everton goalkeeper no chance. As striking as the shot was, the fact his boot also flew off in the direction of the goal made it all the more memorable.

From 1984-89, Alan Walsh made almost 300 appearances for the club and became the Robins' fifth highest scorer of all time with 99 goals. Many of those were free-kicks struck with aplomb and the same could be said of defenders Darren Barnard and Mickey Bell in subsequent years.

These days free-kicks, Twine apart, appear less blood-and-thunder powerfully-struck efforts and more an opportunity to demonstrate what has been rehearsed on the training ground.

I have to go back to the 2008 Championship play-off semi-final first leg at Selhurst Park and that precision passing routine which saw the ball find its way to Louis Carey to score the opening goal. In the second leg of that fixture my mind has just recalled a more traditional powerful effort from Michael McIndoe which secured City's place in the play-off final.

Meanwhile, it was good to see former City starlet Alex Scott actually make the bench for England's game against Albania. He seemed to get poster boy attention in the build-up to England's two games but didn't get a kick.

England coach Thomas Tuchel's record cannot be questioned but why, for the game against Serbia, could he not have included Scott on the bench rather than have an extra goalkeeper?

Furthermore, what was there to learn about what 35-year-old Jordan Henderson is capable of when bringing him on ahead of other younger players who are even closer to selection than the Guernsey Grealish?

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Bristol City have confirmed that midfielder Jason Knight and left-back Cameron Pring are set to to return to training next week in the build-up to their match against Swansea on 22 November (12:30 GMT kick-off).

Robins captain Knight has missed eight league games after suffering an abductor injury during their goalless draw with Preston North End in September, while Pring has been nursing an ankle problem since pre-season.

However, defender Luke McNally has undergone two further operations for an anterior cruciate ligament injury to his knee following his initial surgery in February and he will remain out for the remainder of 2025.

The Irishman's return will be determined following a review with a specialist early next year.

Meanwhile, right-back Ross McCrorie will not travel with Scotland during the international break and will remain with the Robins.

The 27-year-old is expected to be available for the game against the Swans.

Image source, Getty Images

Bristol City boss Gerhard Struber labelled his side "mentality monsters" following the Robins' 1-1 draw with Watford at Vicarage Road on Friday night.

Struber's side has been struck down with a number of injuries and had to field attacking players Scott Twine and Anis Mehmeti in central midfield but his players battled valiantly to earn a hard-fought point on the road.

"We are really happy. In our situation, to pick up a point at Watford, at the moment, is not easy," Struber told BBC Radio Bristol.

"How this group of players invested today, with not the freshest [of] legs, it is a really good performance - I'm really proud.

"The investment, the togetherness, the team dynamic and also how the boys make the right decisions makes me happy.

"Today, the boys showed me outstanding mentality. [They are] mentality monsters and I love to work with players like that."

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Bournemouth midfielder Alex Scott has been given his first senior England call-up - something former boss Nigel Pearson predicted while they were together at Bristol City.

Pearson handed the 22-year-old his Bristol City debut in 2021 and worked with him for more than two years before Scott joined the Cherries in August 2023.

"No doubt about that I think he'll play for England and I think he'll go on to the top of the game," Pearson told BBC Radio Bristol a month before Scott made the move.

England play Serbia on 13 November before making the trip to Albania three days later - will Scott earn his first cap to make Pearson's prediction a reality?

Image source, Opta

The Championship weekend begins in style on Friday night as Watford welcome Bristol City to Vicarage Road (20:00 GMT).

Only leaders Coventry have more points per game at home than Javi Gracia's Hornets, who have taken 16 points from their opening seven matches at the Vic, losing only once.

They have won the past four, culminating in a 3-0 drubbing of high-flying Middlesbrough last Saturday, while Tuesday's 1-1 draw at Ipswich took them into the top-half.

The Robins are in the midst of an injury crisis but have one of the division's best away records, taking 11 points from their opening five games on the road before the shock 5-1 thrashing at Stoke last Saturday.

Tuesday's 1-0 defeat to Blackburn at Ashton Gate left Gerhard Struber's side in seventh, three points and five places above Watford.

• Watford have won three of their past four home league meetings with Bristol City without conceding (L1), and have lost just once in the Robins' last six (W3 D2).

• Bristol City won their most recent game against Watford in April, and could win back-to-back league matches against them for the first time since a run of three between 1990 and 1991.

• Watford have won each of their past four home league games, their longest run since a five-game spell ending in November 2024 – the Hornets haven't won five in a row while also scoring more than once in each victory on home turf since 1985 in the top-flight (7).

• Bristol City have lost back-to-back league games for the first time under Gerhard Struber, last losing more in a row in February/March 2024, a four-game streak under Liam Manning.

• Watford's Imran Louza has scored in each of his past four Championship appearances, with Troy Deeney in 2015 the last Hornet to go on a longer scoring streak in the league (6 in a row).

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Mark Sykes has joined Bristol City's growing injury list as the midfielder looks set to miss two games due to a shin problem.

Sykes came on as a substitute to replace the injured Neto Borges after 24 minutes in the 1-0 defeat by Blackburn but was unable to finish the match due to a cut on his leg that meant a trip to hospital on Tuesday night.

"He's out the next two games, he was in the hospital today with a specialist, a plastic surgeon," boss Gerhard Struber told BBC Radio Bristol.

"He has a very long cut on his shin line and this looks really bad."

City travel to Watford on Friday on the back of successive defeats before the league takes a two-week international break, prior to hosting Swansea on 22 November.

The Robins now have 10 players unavailable, with Rob Atkinson set to be out until at least Christmas with a hamstring injury.

The severity of Borges' injury was still unknown to Struber, with the left-back having had a scan on Wednesday.

"I [will] get the picture in the next few hours and we [will] have a clear diagnosis what goes on but we hope for the best," he added.

Image source, Getty Images

Bristol City hope to have centre-back Rob Atkinson back before Christmas but his hamstring injury is "not good", said head coach Gerhard Struber.

Atkinson went off just after half-time in the 5-1 defeat by Stoke on Saturday, having started all 13 of the Robins' Championship matches to that point.

"We know that Rob will be out for the next weeks; we are in exchange with the specialists at the moment, but it looks not good, this is the reality," Struber told BBC Radio Bristol after Tuesday's 1-0 home defeat by Blackburn.

"We hope he is back before Christmas but right now we have to be very patient with his injury on his hamstring."

Bristol City boss Gerhard Struber was frustrated by the number of interruptions in the game as they went down 1-0 at home to Blackburn Rovers.

"This crashed our flow in the game," he told BBC Radio Bristol..

"It was difficult to deal with Blackburn, their energy, and you can see at the moment they have momentum with this style of play.

"They had two moments in the first half and score, we have two in the second half and don't score. In the end I would say it's a defeat which feels painful."

The Robins suffered further injury problems during the game, with Neto Borges going off after less than half an hour.

"We would wish a different situation where we can bring fresh legs on but that's not possible at the moment with the injuries. I am not going to moan but it's a big challenge at the moment," said Struber.

"He (Neto Borges) felt something could come and made the very good decision to come out. Mark Sykes has a big, deep cut on the shin bone. He's on the way to the hospital right now. It's not so good for the Friday game."

Bristol City host Blackburn Rovers tonight (19:45 GMT) and will be hoping to bounce back after Saturday's heavy 5-1 defeat by Stoke City.

Blackburn are fresh from an impressive 2-0 away victory over Leicester City on Saturday which was just their fourth win of the season.

The away side have won their last two games and will be eyeing a third straight victory.

• The home side has won all four league meetings between Bristol City and Blackburn Rovers over the past two seasons, while the Robins are unbeaten at home against Rovers in their last five (W3 D2).

• Blackburn Rovers did the league double over Bristol City in the 2019-20 campaign but have won just two of 10 league meetings with the Robins since then (D3 L5).

• Since the start of last season, Coventry City (59) are the only ever-present side to win more home points in the Championship than Bristol City (57), who have lost just five of 30 matches at Ashton Gate (W16 D9).

• Blackburn Rovers won three of their seven midweek (Tue/Wed/Thu) Championship away games last season (D1 L3), their most midweek away wins in a league campaign since 2017-18 in League One (6).

• Bristol City manager Gerhard Struber's first game in the EFL came against Blackburn Rovers with Barnsley in November 2019, a 3-2 defeat. His only other meeting with Rovers ended in a 2-0 home win in June 2020.