Birmingham City

Can Southampton pick up their winning ways when they welcome Birmingham City to St Mary's on Saturday (15:00 GMT)?

The Saints saw their high-scoring four match winning streak come to an end with a dramatic 3-2 loss to Millwall, leaving them five points adrift of the top six.

While for the Blues, the play-off spots are in sight. Just one point separates them and sixth placed Bristol City but winning away from home has proven tricky.

The West Midlands side have only picked up eight of their 28 points on the road (W2 D2) and will need to sort out their away form if they want to continue the challenge for promotion.

• There have been 19 goals scored in the last four league meetings between Southampton and Birmingham at St Mary's Stadium, with Saints scoring 12 and conceding seven (W3 L1).

• Birmingham have won just one of their last nine away league games against Southampton (D2 L6), beating them 2-1 in the Championship in August 2008.

• Southampton have scored 15 goals in their last five league games, one more than they had in their previous 17 combined. Saints are looking to score 2+ goals in six consecutive league games for the first time since between April and August 2011.

• Just 29% of Birmingham's league points this season have been won in away games (8/28). Only Watford (25%) have won a lower share on the road than the Blues.

• Southampton have dropped more points from winning positions than any other side in the Championship this season (15), losing 3-2 against Millwall despite scoring first last time out.

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Birmingham City "might never be the same team away from home" but are showing signs their form on the road is improving says manager Chris Davies.

Blues go to Southampton on Saturday (15:00 GMT) having picking up just eight points from a possible 27 away games.

Only Watford, Sheffield Wednesday and Portsmouth - the latter two being in the bottom three - have picked up fewer points on their travels.

Blues' away record is in stark contrast to their superb efforts at St Andrew's with only runaway leaders Coventry City able to better their six wins and 21 goals.

Davies said the last two away performances - a 2-1 defeat by Middlesbrough and a 1-1 derby draw with West Bromwich Albion - have been encouraging.

"There were good signs against a good team [Boro] that we were more than competitive," he told BBC Radio WM.

"Against West Brom, we get something out of the game and showed a bit of resilience

"If you combine those two together, you've got a decent formula for getting something from an away game.

"We have to try to be ourselves. If we change and sit on the edge of our box for 90 minutes we've got less chance of winning the match, there's no doubt about that.

"We might never be the same team away from home but we obviously need to improve our results."

Davies said he does not think the difference in results at home and away is down to any psychological issues, adding "the messaging around the games remains the same".

"Possibly earlier in the season there was maybe a bit of trepidation around some of these games - 'are we good enough?' but I think our confidence has grown," he added.

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Birmingham manager Chris Davies praised his side's character after they held off a Watford fightback in the 2-1 win at St Andrew's.

First-half goals from Paik Seung-ho and Demarai Gray put Blues in control but Othmane Maamma made it a nervy finish.

Speaking to BBC Radio WM, Davies praised his side for getting over the line.

"It's a really big win," he said. "Watford are a really strong team with really strong, fast, good-level players.

"In the first half, we were by far the better team and got two good goals. If we could have got that third, it looks different. They scored, so we had to dig in and show character.

"Maamma is really quick, dangerous and clever and makes good runs without the ball. Bright Osayi-Samuel has hardly played at all for six weeks, so he's come in and done the job for the team."

Birmingham are now just one point and place off the play-offs, but Davies isn't getting ahead of himself.

"I'd have absolutely taken seventh, no doubt about it. To go and beat Watford is not something I take for granted for a second."

Birmingham City boss Chris Davies believes his side can be "real contenders" in the Championship this season despite a difficult start.

Birmingham scored just seven league goals across August and September, the same amount they have accumulated in their past three league matches alone.

Blues seem particularly potent at home, scoring four goals in each of their past three matches at St Andrew's.

"If you look at the underlying numbers, we've improved at almost everything in the last six, seven, eight games," Davies told BBC Radio WM.

"Now I have a lot more belief, looking at us, that we can be a real contender.

"I think early season, we were finding our feet. Some players were finding their feet, their own confidence in their levels, some of them had never played in the Championship. But I look at some of those same players now, I see a belief in them."

Defender Phil Neumann has "recovered okay" from a hefty challenge picked up against West Bromwich Albion on Wednesday and should be available for the game against Watford on Monday (20:00 GMT).

But midfielder Willum Willumsson, who has not featured since August, has suffered a set-back during training to delay a return.

"He's [Willumsson] had another knock in training that has delayed his progress because he was very close to returning, but then he's picked up something else," Davies added.

"It's a bit of a day-by-day but hopefully it's a matter of weeks not months until he's back in the squad."

Listen to the full interview with Davies and more Birmingham City content on BBC Sounds.

Watford will look to extend their undefeated run to a sixth league game as they make the trip to Birmingham City on Monday (20:00 GMT).

The Hornets have only lost two games since boss Javi Gracia took charge in October (W3 D3), placing them three points short of the top six.

Blues, however, are also chasing a spot in the top six and have won five of their eight home games so far this season (D2 L1).

• Birmingham City have lost 10 of their previous 12 league games against Watford (W1 D1), and failed to win any of the last seven (D1 L6).

• Watford have scored on each of their last six league visits to Birmingham City (W4 D1 L1), winning there most recently in March 2024 (1-0).

• Only Coventry City (20) and Watford (18) have won more points at home in the Championship this season than Birmingham (17), winning each of their last three in a row.

• Watford are unbeaten in their last five league games (W2 D3); they last avoided defeat in six successive matches between November/December 2024.

• Only Imran Louza (10) has been involved in more goals for Watford in the Championship this season than Jeremy Ngakia (5 – 2 goals, 3 assists), with his three assists coming in his last five appearances

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Birmingham City midfielder Tommy Doyle says taking a point from Wednesday's West Midlands derby at West Bromwich Albion was a good one given their first-half performance.

Despite largely dominating the first 45 minutes at The Hawthorns, Albion only had Alex Mowatt's 12th-minute goal to show for it and a much-improved Blues managed to secure a point after Marvin Ducksch headed in Doyle's free-kick with 12 minutes left.

"We definitely weren't up to it first half but were miles the better team in the second," Doyle told BBC Radio WM.

"A point at the end of the day is probably good but we could've had a bit more."

Blues came into the match in fine goalscoring form having won their last three home games 4-0 and, although unable to find that same threat against the Baggies, Doyle said they showed another side of their game.

"You can't be free flowing every single week. We want to be and that's the aim we strive for," he said.

"It was all about just plugging away. We fought hard and we were going to create chances and thankfully we got one.

"There's a lot of different ways to score and set-pieces are becoming a big thing so the better you are at them, the more goals you're going to score."

Birmingham City boss Chris Davies is pleased with his side's reaction to coming back from a goal down to draw at West Bromwich Albion on Wednesday night.

"It's a point gained from our point of view," Davies told BBC Radio WM.

"We weren't at our best in the first half, couldn't find our rhythm and were a little bit slow with everything.

"We knew it would be tough because it was a local derby and we conceded a sloppy goal from a set-piece, which put us on the back foot and gave us a mountain to climb.

"I said to the players at half-time that we would get better and find our rhythm. We had to do things quicker. We did find our rhythm in the second half and I thought it was us in the ascendancy. I was pleased we got our set-piece goal.

"I had a feeling we would grow into the game. Being a goal down, away from home in a local derby, maybe not being at your best, to come away with a point you have to say is a good point."

West Brom's only two wins from their past eight league games have both come at home and they are looking to avoid losing back-to-back Championship matches for the third time this season.

Birmingham make the short trip to The Hawthorns on Wednesday (20:00 GMT) with five away defeats already this season having only lost three times on the road in their League One title-winning campaign last year.

• West Brom won 1-0 in their last league meeting with Birmingham in February 2024, ending a four-game losing run against the Blues.

• Birmingham have won just one of their past seven away league games against West Brom (D2 L4), beating them 3-2 in September 2022.

• West Brom have won just one of their past seven midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) league matches (D1 L5), winning 1-0 at Norwich in October.

• After winning seven consecutive away league games between April and August, Birmingham have won just one of their last seven on the road (D1 L5).

• Birmingham have lost just one of their past 19 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) league matches (W15 D3), going down 3-1 at Bolton in March.

Samantha Fletcher
BBC Final Score

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Birmingham are a force to be reckoned with at home, they have only lost once at St Andrew's in the league since April and scored four goals in each of their last three home games.

For the first hour against Norwich City they looked almost like children playing in the park, of course not in relation to skill or speed but in the way they play for fun, hungry for goals.

The string of confident that results on home soil brings appears to breed freedom and confidence to play within a well-drilled team.

The other ingredient for success against Norwich was dog-eared determination, they keep the play alive when many teams would relent.

Demarai Gray stands out as a playmaker, who puts ball after ball into the right place in the box.

Only Hull have beat the Blues at home so far in the Championship. The question is can anyone else stop their ongoing house party?

Image source, PA Media

Chris Davies says his side's 4-1 victory over Norwich City was a "really important win" for his side.

Blues' third win in four games propelled them into the Championship's top 10, just a point off the play-off places.

"It was an important game today," Birmingham boss Davies told BBC WM.

"After the international break this is a disjointed few weeks because players are away and you have to get back together a couple of days before the game and see what kind of intensity you can bring to the next match.

"I thought that was the key to it, I thought we had a real intensity about us, we started really aggressively, we created a chance in the first minute which just sets the tone for the match.

"We were deservedly up in the game at half-time with a cushion and I liked the way we played the second half, so for us it was a really important win."

Boss Chris Davies has admitted "it's hard to prepare" for Birmingham City's Championship fixture with Norwich under their new manager Philippe Clement.

Clement was appointed by the Canaries on Tuesday to replace the sacked Liam Manning.

"He's obviously a very good manager, did a really good job initially at Rangers, winning a trophy," Davies told BBC Radio WM.

"[It's a] challenging landscape in Glasgow as everyone knows when Celtic are the stronger team but, yes, good manager."

Davies added: "He's joined a good team. They're not a team that in my eyes are going to go and get relegated from this division from what I've seen.

"They've got some very good players and it's going to be a very big challenge for us as I've said to the players today.

"I've obviously got a good gauge from his Rangers teams, what he's done at Monaco and other clubs as well, so I've got a feeling I know what kind of football we're going to face and it's going to be a challenge for us."

You can listen to more from Chris Davies on BBC Sounds

If you're wondering where your team is going to finish in the Championship this season, you no longer need to worry.

Well, kind of.

Opta's supercomputer has worked its magic to figure out the most likely final league position of every team - and the chances each has of being promoted, making the play-offs or getting relegated.

Who is most likely to win automatic promotion?

It will come as no surprise that leaders Coventry are heavy favourites for the title (69.3%) and also have the highest chance of automatic promotion (84.2%) to the Premier League.

The next most likely to go straight up, with a 30.8% chance, are Middlesbrough. Despite currently sitting seventh and six points behind Boro in second, Ipswich are expected to be the third favourites for a top two finish (18.9%) followed by Stoke (14.1%).

Even though they've each enjoyed a strong start to the campaign, Preston (10.3%), Hull (6.1%) and Millwall (8.3%) have slimmer chances of finishing in an automatic promotion spot.

Who will make the play-offs?

Image source, Rex Features

Even if Coventry don't win automatic promotion, Opta's supercomputer has given the Sky Blues a 97.9% chance of a top-six finish, suggesting it's almost guaranteed.

Each of Middlesbrough, Ipswich, Preston and Stoke are expected to finish in a minimum of a play-off position at least one in two times.

Hull might feel the hardest done by as they sit fifth currently, but are said to have less chance (32.3%) than Millwall (38.8%) and Charton (32.4%), who are below them in the table.

The most likely of the chasing pack to make a surge up the table are 12th-placed Leicester City, who have been given a 31.8% chance of finishing in the top six and are more likely than Bristol City (28.9%), Derby (22.9%) and Birmingham (19.9%).

Last season's beaten play-off finalists Sheffield United have just a 1.8% chance of recovering their season to make the play-offs again, while relegated Premier League side Southampton (12.5%) aren't likely to either... if you trust the supercomputer!

Who is going down?

Image source, Rex Features

It's probably not hard to work out who is most likely to finish bottom and be relegated to League One.

Sheffield Wednesday's 12-point deduction, which has left them 17 points adrift of safety on -4 points, means they're pretty much nailed on to finish bottom (84.8%) - and failing that, are almost certain to go down (98.2%).

Second from bottom Norwich are the next most likely candidates to fall through the trap door (58.5%) but Sheffield United, who currently occupy the final relegation spot, have just a 22.4% chance of going down and are considered more likely to stay up than Oxford (37.8%) and Portsmouth (31.3%).

New Norwich boss Philippe Clement faces the unenviable first task of taking his side to visit Birmingham City on Saturday (15:00 BST).

Blues have only lost once at home this season, having not conceded a loss at all during their title run in League One the season prior.

Norwich, meanwhile, are lacking in wins and confidence but have collected all of their nine points this season on the road.

• Birmingham City won their most recent league game against Norwich City but haven't recorded back-to-back wins against them since a run of three between February 2001 and March 2002.

• Norwich have won nine of their last 11 league games against Birmingham (D1 L1), though lost 1-0 in the most recent meeting in May 2024.

• Birmingham City have won their last two home Championship games 4-0 against both Portsmouth and Millwall. They've won five home league games by a margin of 4+ goals in 2025, their most in a single year since 1920 (also 5); only in 1893 have they won more in a year by that margin or more (8).

• Since the start of September, Norwich City are the only side in the Championship without a victory (D3 L8) and are winless in 11 games. The Canaries haven't had a longer winless league run since going 13 without a win in the Premier League between August and November 2004.

• Jay Stansfield has been involved in five goals in his last four home Championship games for Birmingham City (4 goals, 1 assist) – five of his six goals this season have come on home soil overall.