Will the current bottom three get relegated?

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It's been nine days to remember for Leeds United.

On 5 April, they beat West Ham on penalties to reach their first FA Cup semi-final for 39 years. Last night, they followed it up with a 2-1 win away at Manchester United.

A first league win since 6 February. Back-to-back wins in all competitions for the first time since mid-January.

Monday's victory moves them six points clear of the relegation with six matches to play.

Of those six matches, four are against their fellow relegation scrappers, starting with a home match against bottom side Wolves on Saturday.

Image source, BBC Sport

That win for Leeds has given them a huge boost in their survival chances. They're now at 2.24%. It also now means Tottenham have a 48.68% chance of relegation.

Here's how it looks:

• Wolves - 100%
• Burnley - 99.98%
• Tottenham - 48.68%
• West Ham - 38.73%
• Nottingham - Forest 10.37%
• Leeds - 2.24%

Look away now, Tottenham fans.

Spurs slipped into the relegation zone on Friday night following West Ham's 4-0 win over Wolves and remain in the bottom three after losing to Sunderland on Sunday.

With Leeds winning and Nottingham Forest picking up a point against Aston Villa to extend the gap between themselves and the relegation zone, Tottenham are now the favourites for the drop according to Opta's supercomputer.

Getting 36 points on the board should offer a huge psychological boost for Leeds.

Teams finishing on 36 or more points in each of the past nine Premier League seasons have avoided relegation.

In the 20-team Premier League era, starting from the 1995-96 season, the average number of points earned by the team finishing 18th is 35.53.

In those 30 seasons, 36 points has ensured survival 60% of the time. Teams achieving 38 points have an 80% survival rate, with 90% for 40 points, and 100% for 43 points.

But does that mean Leeds are safe?

Unfortunately not. This season is on track to be the toughest to survive for a decade, with Opta's supercomputer estimating 38 points will be needed to ensure survival.

West Ham hold the record for the team relegated with the most points in the 20-team era - in 2002-03, they picked up 42 points but still went down.

After losing to Sunderland, Tottenham moved down to the relegation zone. While, West Ham's win over Wolves moves them two points clear of the bottom three.

Fulham and Newcastle also dropped points.

Image source, Getty Images

The honeymoon period appears to be over for Michael Carrick and Man United.

After winning six of his first seven league matches in charge, and guiding them from seventh to third in the process, United have picked up just four points from their past four games, including defeats to Newcastle and Leeds.

Man United remain third with six matches to play but are just eight points clear of Everton in eighth and, crucially, seven clear of Chelsea in fifth.

Although out of form themselves (four defeats in five matches), Chelsea could cut that gap to four points with victory over United at Stamford Bridge on Saturday.

And United's run-in doesn't get easier from there, facing a further four matches against the current top 10 sides before the end of the season.

Image source, BBC Sport

Dale Johnson
Football issues correspondent

Referees' boss Howard Webb spoke about hair pulling in January during Match Officials Mic'd Up.

Webb was talking about the VAR red card shown to Everton's Michael Keane for tugging the hair of Wolves' Tolu Arokodare.

Of the dismissal, Webb said that it was "the appropriate outcome" and "if we see it again next week, it will be the same outcome".

Webb explained: "For some years now, actions where players pull opponents' hair have been deemed as violent conduct.

"You don't see that often, you sometimes see it with players maybe in confrontation with one another, not battling for the ball.

"I'm told if you have your hair pulled, it's quite an offensive thing to happen to you - I've not had mine pulled for a long time – but I think we've recognised that and it is in the guidance that we give to clubs before the season starts.

"Grabbing somebody’s hair with force is deemed violent conduct and a player will be sent off.

"It was the appropriate outcome. It was unusual but if we see it again next week, it will be the same outcome next week as well."

Dale Johnson
Football issues correspondent

Will Manchester United appeal Lisandro Martinez's red card?

We have been here before this season. In January, Everton tried to get Michael Keane's VAR dismissal overturned. He had tugged the hair of Wolves' Tolu Arokodare.

The Toffees were not successful. Boss David Moyes said he was "angry" with the appeal panel, and "embarrassed" for the VAR, Chris Kavanagh.

FA disciplinary panels, usually made up of three former players, are notoriously hard to predict.

It really can depend upon which ex-players you get on your panel.

United will have to base their appeal on a lack of force in the action, because they cannot claim Martinez did not have Calvert-Lewin’s hair in his grasp.

In the Keane case, it was a 2-1 vote to reject the appeal.

The majority view was that it fell "outside the normal constituent elements of a challenge in football".

The other panel member said it was "an action born out of instinct and of minimal force".

United have nothing to lose - extra games for frivolous appeals were effectively ended 15 years ago when the fast-track system came in.

But Calvert-Lewin going down and holding the back of his head would have been key for the VAR review.

That will make it more difficult to win an appeal based on a lack of force.

Image source, Getty Images

Simon Stone
BBC Sport Manchester United reporter

Over the next 48 hours, Manchester United will find out whether Harry Maguire will receive an additional punishment for his red card at Bournemouth last month after he was charged with improper conduct by the Football Association (FA) for something he said to fourth official Matt Donohue as he made his way off the field.

An additional suspension would rule him out of the Chelsea game, which Matthijs de Ligt is almost certain to miss as he deals with a long-term back problem.

Martinez will also miss out - plus home games against Brentford and Liverpool - after he was dismissed for violent conduct for pulling Dominic Calvert-Lewin's hair in the second half.

Carrick has suggested United will appeal against the red card. Unless they are successful, his only available central defenders at Stamford Bridge will be 19-year-old Ayden Heaven and 20-year-old Leny Yoro, who found it difficult to deal with Calvert-Lewin.

"That's why we've got a squad," countered Carrick. "We have got players we can call upon. We'll go there and look forward to the game.

"Hopefully Licha [Martinez] is still available. I think certainly that he should be after that, but we'll see."

Image source, Getty Images

After matchweek 32, Arsenal remain at the top of the table, but Manchester City cut the lead to six points.

Brighton and Sunderland move up into the top 10 after winning their matches.

Alan Shearer
Former Newcastle striker on BBC Breakfast

Is that really what the game is coming to? Are we seriously calling that violent conduct and sending someone off for it? Come on - it's never a red card. Do me a favour.

Never a red card, not in the Premier League. We need to be careful about where the game is heading if that is being deemed violent conduct and a red card. It's not what we want to see.

I'm all for improving things, but not like that. It's a physical game, a tough game at times, and we have to be careful about where we're going if that is a red card.

Opta's supercomputer has been busy predicting which clubs have a chance at securing their spot at the top of the table.

After losing to Leeds, Manchester United's probability has dropped slightly but there is still a 91.95% chance of a top-five finish.

Brighton, Everton and Brentford all have a outside chance of a top-five finish.

Here's how it looks:

• Arsenal 100%
• Man City 100%
• Aston Villa 94.84%
• Man Utd 91.95%
• Liverpool 71.25%
• Chelsea 18.63%
• Brighton 7.7%
• Everton 6.44%
• Brentford 5.59%

Should a hair-pull be a red card?

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