The Human Consequences of Armed Conflict

by Marie Smyth

Table 9.4 Distribution of deaths by religion

Note: NNI = Non Northern Ireland

An examination of the numbers of deaths shows that more Catholics than Protestants have died in the Troubles. Given the smaller proportion of Catholics in the general population, Catholics have a higher death risk than Protestants. We explore this further, as follows.

Since the local security forces are 92 per cent Protestant, this proportion was used to redistribute the 'not known' category in table 9.4 between the two religious groups. These results are shown in table 9.5. Changes in the relative size of the Catholic and Protestant populations of Northern Ireland were taken into account by calculating the rate from the base of either the 1991 census of population, or from an average of the 1971, 1981 and 1991 censuses.

Columns 1 and 2 of table 9.5 show the death rates for Protestants and Catholics calculated from the base of the 1991 census only. Columns 3 and 4 show the rate if it is calculated using a base of the average of the population figures in the three censuses, since the deaths occurred over a period in which there were changes in the religious balance of the population in Northern Ireland.

Table 9.5 Death rates by religion (per 1000 population)

Table 9.6 Organisations responsible for deaths

In the first row of table 9.5, death rates for Catholic and Protestant civilians only are shown. Using the 1991 census figures alone, the rate is 2.48 per thousand for Catholic compared with 1.46 per thousand for Protestants. Using the average of the three censuses, the rate becomes 3.01 per thousand for Catholics compared with 1.26 per thousand for Protestants.

However, to exclude security deaths omits a cohort of deaths that are largely Protestant. Since substantial numbers of security deaths had missing values for religion, we re-calculated the death ratios, attributing 'Protestant' to a proportion of security deaths in accordance with the known religious composition of the security forces. The second row in table 9.5 shows that, using the 1991 census figures alone, the rate then becomes 2.5 per thousand for Catholic compared with 1.9 per thousand for Protestants. Using the average of the three censuses, the rate becomes 3.1 per thousand for Catholic compared with 1.6 per thousand for Protestants.

In the third row, all deaths that were attributable to perpetrators within the same community as the victim - all Catholics killed by republican paramilitaries and all Protestants killed by loyalist paramilitaries - were removed. This gives a new rate. Using the 1991 census figures alone, the rate becomes 1.9 per thousand for Catholic compared with 1.6 per thousand for Protestants. Using the average of the three censuses, the rate becomes 2.3 per thousand for Catholic compared with 1.4 per thousand for Protestants.

The risk for the two groups varied substantially over time. Between 1969 and 1976 (using 1971 census figures) the Catholic death risk was more than twice that of Protestants, whereas the converse appears to be true between 1977 and 1986. In the final period, the risk for Catholics was about 50 per cent greater. Overall, however, there have been more deaths in relative and absolute terms in the Catholic community in Northern Ireland than in the Protestant community.