The Human Consequences of Armed Conflict

by Marie Smyth

From: A Farewell to Arms? From 'long war' to long peace in Northern Ireland edited by Michael Cox, Adrian Guelke and Fiona Stephen

Published by Manchester University Press, 2000

The analysis that follows is of a comprehensive database of deaths due to the Troubles between 1969 and 1998. This database, compiled as part of "The Cost of the Troubles" study, is described and analysed in greater detail elsewhere.

Deaths over time

The early 1970s were the years that saw the highest death rates of any in the thirty years of the troubles. Table 9.1 shows that 1972 was the year in which the largest number of people died. Subsequently in the late 1970s, as a result of security policies and shifting military and paramilitary strategies, the Troubles settled into what became known as 'an acceptable level of violence', a steady, if high level of deaths that never again reached the peaks of the early 1970s.

Just over half of all deaths occurred in the period 1971-76. If the frequency of deaths can be regarded as a good indicator of the intensity of the conflict, then these five years stand out over the entire three decades. The key events were the introduction of Internment in 1971, the proroguing of Stormont in 1972 and 1974, when the Power-sharing Executive was brought down by the Ulster Workers Council strike. After 1976, despite events such as the renewed loyalist strike in 1977 and the hunger strikes of the early 1980s, the number of deaths in any one year never again reached the same level and in only seven years was it greater than 100. Data on injuries confirms the concentration of violence in the 1970s, with almost a third of all injuries suffered between 1972 and 1977.

Just over half of all deaths due to the British Army (163 deaths or 51.6 per cent) occurred between 1971 and 1973 compared to 15.3 per cent of deaths (7 deaths) attributable to the RUC. Republican and loyalist paramilitaries were also responsible for large number of deaths during this time (502 and 216) although it was not their most active period. The years 1971-73 saw the most proactive security activity by the army, indicated by the number and share of the total deaths due to them that occurred in the last five months in 1971 and all of 1972-73. Paramilitary peaks of activity came later, with 40 per cent of deaths (452 deaths) perpetrated by loyalist paramilitaries occurring between 1974 and 1976. In the case of republican paramilitaries, 47 per cent of all the deaths they have been responsible for occurred in the period 1971-76.

Cause of death

Overall, shooting was the main cause of death, followed by explosion. Nearly 91 per cent of victims died from these causes. Deaths caused by explosions were concentrated in the 1970s whereas deaths due to shooting were fairly evenly distributed across the entire period.

Table 9.2 Deaths by status of victims 1969-94