Prisoners: How attitudes have hardened
From BELFAST TELEGRAPH September 7th, 1999
In the second part of the Belfast Telegraph's exclusive opinion poll, Political
Correspondent Chris Thornton analyses how Northern Ireland feels about prisoner
releases, David Trimble, and the Good Friday Agreement.
THE imperfect peace
is taking its toll. In February, when the debate over so-called punishment
attacks was at its height, a Belfast Telegraph poll found in the face of
strong opposition just over a fifth of people in Northern Ireland felt the
early release of prisoners should continue nevertheless. Then came a summer
of continued attacks, loyalist pipe bombs, IRA gun running from America
and murders associated with the Provos. And in today's poll finding, there
has been a marked effect on support for continued releases. From 21% in
February, it has fallen to 12%. Even among Sinn Féin voters who could be
expected to be the most enthusiastic supporters of prison releases the poll
shows a negative effect. Seven months ago, three-quarters of Sinn Féin voters
wanted releases to continue without effect. That figure now drops to 51%.
A fifth think the releases should slow down. Polling was conducted before
and after Mo Mowlam ruled that the IRA had not broken its ceasefire, so
it is impossible to read what effect that had on people's feelings about
prisoner releases. But support for limited action against prisoners slowing
down the early releases has also fallen, from 35% in February to 23% today.
The "don't know" category has risen as a result. Support for an end to the
releases has hardened, but not significantly. Among Protestants it remains
clearly the favoured option, while Catholic opinion is spread over all the
choices. The divide between unionists and nationalists is also evident on
another major question whether Sinn has shifted its position enough to join
an executive at Stormont. Catholics believe Sinn Féin should be allowed
into government, a majority of unionists disagree. The divide continues
on the question of whether Sinn Fein can persuade the IRA to decommission:
In almost equal numbers, Catholics believe it can happen, Protestants believe
it can't. There is an interesting point to note in the party political divisions:
70% of Sinn Fein voters believe their party can eventually persuade the
IRA to decommission. Most with that opinion think it can happen by May 2000.
Only six per cent believe it is beyond Sinn Féin's means. The implication
of this response is that, behind the 'Not a Bullet' slogan, a big majority
of the republican grassroots believes that IRA disarmament is a real option.
Almost half of the UUP voters agree that decommissioning could happen eventually.
That may be some crumb of comfort for Senator George Mitchell as he engages
in the review process. On the question of whether the peace process has
made life in Northern Ireland better or worse, people appear to have kept
a sense of perspective through a difficult summer. Even among no voters,
just 7% think life is worse than it was before. But there is a sharp divide
on the question among unionists. A slim majority of Protestants think life
is better than it was before, but a significant portion 42% think the process
has made no difference. APPROVAL for David Trimble as First Minister has
fallen, with less than half the population of Northern Ireland saying he's
doing a good job. The fall has been most acute among nationalists suggesting
the UUP leader is being blamed for the resignation of his deputy, Seamus
Mallon. There is some solace for the First Minister: the level of disapproval
has not risen dramatically. The shift has been towards withholding judgement,
with more than one-third of respondents saying his performance is neither
good nor poor. According to a Belfast Telegraph poll in February, 57% of
people in Northern Ireland thought Mr Trimble was doing a good or very good
job as First Minister. That rating has now fallen to 41%. There appears
to be a link to Mr Trimble's stance of July 15, when he refused to enter
the Stormont Executive and sparked the resignation of Mr Mallon. Among SDLP
voters Mr Mallon's natural supporters Mr Trimble has experienced a sharp
fall. In February, 70% of SDLP voters said he was doing a good or very good
job an even higher rating than he got from his own party (63% in February).
That SDLP support has now nearly halved, to 37%. Among his own party, the
DUP and Sinn Fein, Mr Trimble's rating remains largely unchanged. THE death
knell of the Good Friday Agreement has been sounded again and again its
opponents, but an analysis of today's poll indicates it would still pass
a referendum. However, the level of unionist support is open to question.
An estimated 55% of unionists supported the Agreement in 1998, but that
level appears to have dwindled. The collapse among Yes voters is less than
may have been expected, with 14% saying they would not vote the same way.
Significantly, another 12% are undecided. Similar percentages apply in the
No camp. |
