Ahern
and Blair may seek interim agreement to keep Executive alive If Blair and
Ahern broker a deal today with Northern leaders, it is likely to be a holding
operation until after the UK general election, writes Frank Millar
From IRISH TIMES March 8th, 2001
Trimble loyalists have no doubt that pro-agreement unionism would be fortified
in the upcoming electoral battles if - in the assumed absence of any IRA
decommissioning - constitutional nationalism asserted itself and backed
the new policing disposition, leaving Sinn Fein isolated. And that impatience
with Sinn Fein is apparently real enough in the Department of Foreign Affairs
and elsewhere; few would seriously suggest the Taoiseach has profound misgivings
of his own about the Police Act embodying the Patten reforms. That said,
usually reliable Irish sources seem convinced such unionist hopes will be
dashed and that the poker-playing Mr Mallon will choose not to reveal his
hand before polling day. Hence the suggestion emanating from Irish sources
last night that any Ahern/Blair-led summit will probably be a back-to-basics
affair in search of a minimalist deal - this involving the IRA's re-engagement
with Gen de Chastelain, the lifting of Mr Trimble's North/South fatwa on
Sinn Fein ministers, and an ongoing negotiation on policing issues, with
the Executive and other institutions functioning normally through the election
period. IN OTHER words a holding deal, taking the parties back to last October
when Mr Trimble deployed his North/South sanction against Sinn Fein to fight
off a seemingly growing threat to his leadership. But will that be enough?
The calculation in the Trimble camp is that his position has steadily improved
since last autumn. Mr Donaldson is thought to have made a profound miscalculation
last October, when he rejected a deal which could have forced the UUP out
of the Executive in January. The sanctions against Sinn Fein bought Mr Trimble
time and averted the threatened resumption of the Ulster Unionist Council
in January. The Rev Martin Smyth apparently does not rule out a further
challenge but foot-and-mouth feeds Trimble supporters' hopes that the UUC's
annual meeting this month may have to be postponed - taking the party into
the teeth of Westminster and council elections with no option but to band
together and battle for collective survival. Key Trimble strategists actually
reckon the forthcoming elections may not be the disaster so widely predicted,
while other dissident MPs privately admit they do not have the internal
forces and are counting on the electorate to finish Mr Trimble off. The
British government is less sanguine about Mr Trimble's prospects than are
some of his advisers, hence Mr Blair's push to the last for an all-purpose
deal. However, if it is not forthcoming, it seems certain London will not
move to a second suspension of the institutions unless convinced by Mr Trimble
that there is no alternative. And the over-arching factor of the moment
surely is that Mr Trimble appears to have decided in suspension lies the
path of self-fulfilling electoral ruin. Of course his party might yet confound
him. But if Mr Trimble remains - as he appears - determined to fight the
elections as serving First Minister, then Mr Ahern and Mr Blair might savour
the prospect of at least an interim agreement and crisis postponed until
the day after polling. However if, as still seems inevitable, the overwhelming
majority of pro-Union votes are cast for anti-agreement candidates, the
crisis then may be less about decommissioning and policing than about democracy
itself. Frank Millar is London Editor |
