The Character of the 1998 Agreement: Results and Prospects
by Brendan O'Leary
From: Aspects of the Belfast Agreement edited by Rick Wilford
Oxford University Press 2001
Decommissioning
The Agreement is clear on decommissioning, despite the difficulties it has occasioned. No paramilitaries that abide by the Agreement have to engage in forma surrender to those they opposed in war. The IICD, chaired by Canadian General John de Chastelain, was to assist the participants in achieving 'the total disarmament of all paramilitary organisations'. The parties that (informally) represented paramilitary organisations in the negotiations are required to 'use any influence they may have to achieve the decommissioning of all paramilitary arms within two years, following endorsement in referendums North and South of the agreement and in the context of the implementation of the overall settlement. (The Agreement, para 20, para: 3, emphasis mine).
The italicised passages clarify the termination point for decommissioning,
not the moment of commencement, and they make it plain that decommissioning
is linked to the implementation of the overall settlement - including the
establishment of the governance structures - North, North-South, and East-West
- and to achieve a start to decommissioning by the IRA before executive
formation in the North, was regarded as a breach of any reasonable interpretation
of the text of the Agreement. Without executive formation in the North none
of the formal institutions of the Agreement that required the co-operation
of the local parties could get underway. Sinn Fein nominated a representative
to the International Commission; issued a statement to the effect that the
war was over; and for the first time issued an outright condemnation of
other republicans - of the Real IRA whose members carried out the Omagh
bombing. But until November 1999, David Trimble and some of his senior colleagues
were unprepared to regard this activity as sufficient evidence of good intentions.
Each move on Sinn Fein's part merely led to the UUP to request more. The
Mitchell review of the Agreement, caused by the impasse, recommended an
agreed way forward. Devolution, executive formation-triggering the entirety
of the institutions of the Agreement-and the appointment of interlocutors
to the IICD by the paramilitaries were scheduled to occur, in that order.
The scenario duly materialised. However, to win support from his party for
reversing his position David Trimble demanded that Sinn Fein achieve an
actual start to decommissioning by the IRA otherwise he and his colleagues
would resign. Sinn Fein could not or would not deliver the IRA in the way
required - and they were not legally bound by the Agreement to do so at
that time, though their political obligations were clear. This led to showdown
with Peter Mandelson unilaterally deciding to suspend the Assembly to save
David Trimble from his own threat of resignation. |
