The Character of the 1998 Agreement: Results and Prospects
by Brendan O'Leary
From: Aspects of the Belfast Agreement edited by Rick Wilford,
Oxford University Press 2001
Crisis over executive formation was the first sign that the Agreement might falter. The crisis arose for political and constitutional reasons. Politically, because David Trimble insisted that Sinn Féin deliver some IRA decommissioning before its members would take their seats in the executive Committee: "no government before guns" became his party's slogan. Under the text of the Agreement Trimble had no constitutional warrant to exercise this veto:
1. No party was entitled to veto another party's membership of the Executive - though the Assembly as a whole, through cross-community consent, was free to deem a party unfit for office.
2. The Agreement did not require decommissioning before executive formation on the part of any paramilitaries or of any parties connected to them - though it did require parties to use their best endeavours to achieve the completion of decommissioning within two years, that is, by 22 May 2000. Indeed it was precisely this fact that prompted Jeffrey Donaldson to leave the UUP's negotiating team the day the Agreement was made.
3. Any "natural" reading of the Agreement mandated executive formation as the first step necessary to bring all of the Agreement's institutions "on line".
Trimble rested his (flimsy) case on a communication he had received from the UK premier on the morning of the Agreement, indicating that it was Tony Blair's view that decommissioning "should begin straight away". Communications from UK premiers do not, of course, have the force of law - outside the ranks of New Labour! Trimble's concern was to appease critics of the Agreement within his own party, and amongst his voters. His negotiating team split in the making of the Agreement, a majority of his party's Westminster members opposed the Agreement, and his new Assembly party contained critics of aspects of the Agreement. So he felt obliged to play for time before implementing the Agreement.
Trimble was initially facilitated in exercising his veto by UK and Irish Governments sympathetic to his exposed position. He also took advantage of the fact that the SDLP did not make the formation of the rest of the executive a pre-condition of its support for the Trimble/Mallon ticket for First and Deputy First Minister. The SDLP wished to shore up Trimble's political position. One flexible provision in the Agreement gave Trimble further room for manoeuvre. The Agreement stated that there must be at least six "Other Ministers", but that there could be "up to" ten. The number of ministries was to be decided by cross-community consent, and that gave an opportunity to delay on executive formation. It would be December 1998 before the parties reached agreement on ten ministries after the UUP abandoned its demand for a seven-seat Executive in which unionists would have had a 4:3 majority.
The protracted crisis over executive formation was, in principle, resolved
in mid-November 1999. Unionists accepted that executive formation would
occur - with the IRA appointing an interlocutor to negotiate with the International
Commission on Decommissioning (ICD) - while actual decommissioning, consistent
with the text of the Agreement, would not be required until after executive
formation. Senator George Mitchell in concluding his eleven-week review
of the Agreement, and with the consent of the pro-Agreement parties, stated
that "Devolution should take effect, then the executive should meet, and then the paramilitary groups should appoint their authorised representatives, all on the same day, in that order". This was an honourable resolution to
what looked like becoming a fundamental impasse. However, to get it passed
by the Ulster Unionist Council David Trimble felt obliged to give his party
a post-dated resignation letter - which meant that if there was no IRA decommissioning
reported by February 2000 the UUP would walk out of the executive. No such
IRA decommissioning occurred, though the IRA did appear to clarify that
decommissioning would occur. Fearful that Trimble could not be resurrected
as First Minister, the Secretary of State Peter Mandelson sought new powers
from Westminster and suspended the Executive and the Assembly. |
