Transcending an Ethnic Party System? The Impact of Consociational Governance on Electoral Dynamics and the Party System
by Paul Mitchell
36. Horowitz however makes a strong case for adopting the Alternative Vote (AV) rather than STV in ethnic party systems largely because the higher effective threshold under AV than STV induces a greater incentive towards vote pooling. For a variety of reasons, but especially because AV is a majoritarian and disproportional system, it would not be at all appropriate for Northern Ireland's polarized multi party system. As we have already seen in relation to electoral turnout, the distribution of voters is such that many constituencies are predominately unionist or nationalist. The imposition of a majority threshold by introducing AV would thus be highly unlikely to induce the vote pooling desired by Horowitz. Indeed, there are good reasons to believe that AV would reinforce communal polarization, so that the representation of minority communities would be reduced or even eliminated in many more constituencies than is the case under STV - in 1998 only West Belfast returned six members that were all from the same bloc.
37. Evans, G and O'Leary, B> 'Northern Irish Voters and the British-Irish Agreement: Foundations of a Stable Consociational Settlement?' The Political Quarterly 71, (2000): 78-101
38. The SDLP informally recommended that their supporters transfer to pro-Agreement parties, though there was no formal transfer agreement with Sinn Fein, despite Gerry Adams's call for one. Perhaps not surprisingly given the sharp competition with the DUP - and in the context of a first post Agreement election - UUP leader Trimble did not recommend transfers to the SDLP. In these circumstances he probably did as much as he could by saying that UUP voters should make up their own minds on transfers on the basis of local circumstances (Irish Times, 24 June, 1998).
39. However, note that the UUP has received significant to very dramatic seat bonuses in all Northern Ireland elections under a variety of electoral systems. The bonuses are of course larger with the plurality system (see Mitchell and Gillespie, 'The Electoral Systems', Table 4.4)
40. Evans and O'Leary, 'Northern Irish Voters and the British Irish Agreement'.
41. Ibid. 89-91
42. Ibid.90 |
