The Nature of the British-Irish Agreement
by Brendan O'Leary
New Left review 233/1999
How will the Assembly and its Cross Community Voting rules Work?
The first is 'parallel consent'. This requires, amongst those present and voting, both an overall majority of Assembly members and a majority of both unionist and nationalist members to endorse a proposal. Table 2 which records the number in each bloc returned in the June 1998 election, suggests that parallel consent with all members present, will require the support of 22 nationalists, and 29 unionists, as well as an overall majority in the Assembly. The second rule is that of 'weighted majority'. This requires amongst those present and voting support from 60 per cent of members, that is 65 members when all members vote, or 64 excluding the Speaker. It also requires the support of 40 per cent of nationalist members and 40 per cent of unionist members. The data in Table 2 suggest that at least 17 nationalists must consent under this procedure and at least 24 unionists. It also suggests that all nationalists (42) and the minimum necessary number of unionists (24) have the necessary combined support in the Assembly as a whole for any measure passed in this way (65). The same figures strongly suggest that in the first Assembly moderate pro-Agreement unionists are vulnerable to pressure from anti-Agreement unionists. They could even refuse to be part of a predominately nationalist super-majority necessary to work the parallel consent rule. But there is fat built into the Assembly. The bottom line is that David Trimble can survive and deliver a workable portion of new cross community majority even with six dissidents in his own party.- providing he can be certain of the support of the PUP (which is likely) and providing that he can live with support from Sinn Fein (which is evidently much more uncomfortable for him)
The cross-community rules are vital but not entirely predictable in their consequences. The legislation implies that the parallel consent procedure must be attempted first, and then the weighted majority procedure can be followed. That, however, may have to be clarified when the transitional Assembly decides its rules of procedure - by cross community consent. The operation of the cross-community rules depends not just on how parties register, but also on how disciplined parties are within the Assembly - widespread fears that have been expressed about the discipline and unity of the UUP reflect knowledge of this fact.
The Assembly will have committees scrutinising each of the departments headed
by Ministers. Committee Chairs and Deputy Chairs will also be allocated
according to the d'Hondt rule. Each committee will have to approve any proposed
new law within its jurisdiction tabled by Ministers, and indeed the committee
can initiate legislative proposals. In consequence, a committee dominated
by other parties may block the legislative initiatives of a dynamic Minister;
and it may initiate legislation not to that Minister's liking - though the
success of such proposals are subject to the possibility of cross-community
special procedures. |
