'Towards
a Lasting Peace? The Northern Ireland Multi-Party Agreement, Referendum
and Assembly Elections of 1998
by John Doyle
Table 4 number of seats won by each party
|
Party
|
Seats
|
|
UUP
|
28
|
|
SDLP
|
24
|
|
DUP
|
20
|
|
SF
|
18
|
|
Alliance
|
6
|
|
UKUP
|
5
|
|
PUP
|
2
|
|
NIWC
|
2
|
|
Ind.
anti-agreement unionists
|
3
|
With 28 seats or 48.2% of the unionist bloc the anti-agreement unionists
are somewhat short of the number needed to prevent decisions being taken.
It has been widely reported that 30 seats would be sufficient for them to
do so - marking a majority of declared unionists. This is not strictly true.
First of all the Women's Coalition have indicated that though currently
registered as 'Other' they would redesignate themselves as unionists if
necessary, raising the 50% threshold to 31. Although the Alliance Party
seemed reluctant to do this prior to the election, their leader John Alderdice
resigned in the aftermath of the party's poor performance, and under a new
leader and faced with a real threat they might also register as unionists
raising the majority needed to 34. In any case decisions can also be made
on a cross-community basis if there is a 60% yes vote in the Assembly, including
at least 40% of each community (Method 2 in table 2), thus requiring the
dissidents to get 35 votes at least and 52 if the NIWC and Alliance reregister.
Practically however this could present difficulties for David Trimble if
his support in the UUP was to decline so seriously.
Having elected David Trimble as First Minister and the SDLPs Seamus Mallon
as Deputy First Minister the Assembly adjourned until September. It is required
to form an executive and set up the North-South Council, before 31 October
and must also deal with the political realities of prisoner releases, the
likelihood that no decommissioning will have taken place and pressure for
reform on the equality agenda. An agenda that is likely to be as problematic
as achieving the initial agreement. |
