'Towards a Lasting Peace? The Northern Ireland Multi-Party Agreement, Referendum and Assembly Elections of 1998
by John Doyle
Scottish Affairs, No.25, Autumn 1998. (Published by Unit for the Study of Government in Scotland at Edinburgh University)
The Assembly Elections
With only four weeks between the results of the referendum and the election to the new Northern Ireland Assembly the election campaign raised few new issues. Within the nationalist community, as there were no serious anti-agreement candidates, the poll became yet another party-political contest between the SDLP and Sinn Féin for the long-term support of the nationalist community. Sinn Féin argued that a vote for them would represent a stronger challenge to the status quo and would provide a greater degree of impetus for change. Sinn Féin's vote had increased from 10% in 1992 to 16% in the 1997 Westminster elections. They were also attracting a younger vote than the SDLP. The SDLP hoped to reverse the gains made by Sinn Féin in recent elections. Their canvassing strategy focused on the argument that, because of the divisions within unionism, the SDLP could become the largest party in Northern Ireland if some Sinn Féin voters switched to them, and in those circumstances they argued that John Hume rather than David Trimble would be First Minister. This was somewhat disingenuous because while there was indeed some prospect of the SDLP outpolling the UUP in percentage terms (in fact they did so) there was no realistic prospect of the SDLP winning more seats because of the wider base of lower preference votes which the UUP was likely to attract.
The anti-agreement unionists used the same tactics and arguments as they had advanced in the referendum campaign to try and achieve a block large enough to veto decisions under the cross-community voting procedures. To do this they clearly needed to attract more votes than received by the anti-agreement parties, the DUP and the UKUP, in previous elections. To this end these parties along with those within the UUP who opposed the agreement formed a 'United Unionist' platform to seek to improve their capacity to attract dissident UUP voters and also to maximise transfers in the PRSTV election. There were also some very bitter election conventions within the UUP as pro and anti UUP members sought to win the party nominations. David Trimble attempted to minimise the vote gathering capabilities of the anti-agreement candidates by invoking party rules to prohibit the UUP Westminster MPs who opposed the agreement from standing in the Assembly election. This was fiercely contested by supporters of Jeffrey Donaldson MP but Trimble stood firm and prevented Donaldson from standing. While Donaldson accepted this decision other lesser known figures from within the UUP who failed to secure official party backing stood as anti-agreement independent unionists.
The results were significant for a number of reasons. The UUP vote fell
to its lowest level ever (21.2%). The SDLP just outpolled the UUP gaining
22% but the UUP received more transfers in the PRSTV system and so won 28
seats to the SDLPs 24. Sinn Féin got its highest ever vote at 17.7% (an
increase of 75% since the start of the public phase of the peace process
in 1992) and narrowed the gap on the SDLP to a mere 4.3%. SDLP support increased
by 0.5% from their 1996 Forum elections. The Alliance Party faired poorly
with only 6.5% and 6 seats and no prospect of a executive seat. The NIWC
won 2 seats with only 1% of the overall vote due to high levels of lower
preference votes (from SF and the PUP to help them defeat Alliance in South
Belfast and from the SDLP to defeat the UUP and DUP in North Down). The
PUP won two seats with 2.2% but the UDP with only 1.1% failed to win a seat,
leaving one of the main loyalist paramilitaries with no political representation
in the Assembly. In addition to this party support there were three anti-agreement
unionist elected as independents. The combined nationalist vote was therefore
39.7%. The unionist anti-agreement parties (DUP and UKUP) polled 22.6%,
compared to the UUPs 21.2% which also included voters for some opponents
of the deal who had managed to secure party nominations. This gave the mainstream
unionist parties a total vote of 43.8% - not a great deal more than the
nationalist parties. |
