Afghanistan: Ana fargabar farfaɗowar al-Qaeda bayan tafiyar dakarun Amurka

Shugabannin leƙen asiri na ƙasashen yammaci sun shiga damuwa. Suna da ƙaƙƙwaran dalilin yin haka.

Ficewar gaggawa a wannan watan na dakarun ƙasashen yammaci daga Afghanistan, da shugaban Amurka Joe Biden ya zartar, ya ƙara ƙarfafa wa mayaƙan Taliban.

A kwanakin da suka gabata, sun ƙwace yankuna da dama, da ƙwace sansanonin da dakarun gwamnati suka miƙa wuya ko kuma suka tsere.

Yanzu a cewar masana, ayyukan ta'addanci na farfaɗowa.

Ficewar da Biden ya yi daga Afghanistan zai ƙara tabbatar da mamayar Taliban tare ba ƙungiyar Al-Qaeda damar sake gina ayyukanta, har zuwa lokacin da za su sake shirya kai hare-hare a duniya," kamar yadda Dr Sajjan Gohel, wani mai sharhi kan tsaro da ta'addanci ya shaida wa BBC.

Faɗaɗa ayyuka

Tabbas wannan shi ake tunani kuma abubuwa biyu na iya faruwa.

Na farko Taliban - Mai da'awar kafa daular Islama wacce ta mulki Afghanistan daga 1996 zuwa 2001 da ƙarfi - yanzu za ta dawo.

A yanzu, sun ce ba su da burin karɓe Kabul, babban birnin Afghanistan da ƙarfin tuwo. Amma a sauran sassan ƙasar sun riga sun mamaye kuma ba su jingine da'awarsu ba ta kafa Daular Islama bisa tsarin aƙidarsu.

Na biyu kuma, al-Qaeda da abokan gabarta, IS a lardin Khurasan (IS-KP) tana diba yadda za ta amfana da ficewar dakarun ƙasashen yammaci domin faɗada ayyukanta a Afghanistan.

Labarai masu alaka:

Al-Qaeda da IS tuni suna cikin Afghanistan. Ƙasar tana da yawan tsaunuka da yanayin ƙasa, babu wurare da yawa a fili da waɗannan mayaƙan za su iya ɓuya.

Amma har zuwa yanzu jami'an leƙen asirin Afghanistan, NDS da ke aiki da Amurka da sauran dakarun ƙasashen waje sun yi ƙoƙarin magance barazanar.

Hare-hare da fashewar bama-bamai har yanzu suna faruwa, amma yanzu ba a cika kai hare-haren ba cikin jama'a, samun bayanai da mutane ke kwarmatawa da kuma sauraren wayoyin salula da sojojin Afghanistan da dakarun ƙasashen yammaci suka yi ya yi tasiri sosai.

Ayyuka daga sansanoninn sojoji a Afghanistan, sun yi ƙoƙarin tunkarar barazana cikin sauri, ta hanyar jirgi mai saukar angulu wani lokaci cikin dare, domin tunkarar fagen daga.

Yanzu wannan ya kawo ƙarshe.

Barazana ga Birtaniya ta Karu

Taliban ta fayyace cewa a wannan makon ba ta tunanin ganin wani sojan ƙasashen yammaci - har da waɗanda ke tsaron filayen jiragen sama ko kuma ofisohin jekadancin Amurka - zai saɓa yarjejeniyar Doha da aka amince sojojin Amurka za su fice zuwa 11 ga Satumba.

Sun sha alwashin kai hari ga duk sojojin suka rage a ƙasar.

A wannan makon ake sa ran Firaministan Birtaniya Boris Johnson zai jagoranci taron majalisar tsaron gwamnatinsa domin tattauna taimakon da Birtaniya za ta bari a ƙasar.

Tsohon shugaban hukumar leƙen asiri Sir Alex Younger, ya shaida wa Sky News cewa "barazanar hare-haren ta'addanci zai ƙaru idan har ƙasashen yammaci suka yi watsi da Afghanistan.

Janye su gaba ɗaya, kamar yadda Taliban ta buƙata, kuma ƙasashen yammaci ba su da damar mayar da martani nan take kan ayyukan ta'addanci.

Alaƙar Taliban da al-Qaeda

Mece ce dangantakar da ke tsakanin Taliban da al-Qaeda?

Shin dawowar mulkin Taliban na nufin dawowar al-Qaeda, tare da dukkan sansanoninta da sansanoninta na bayar da horo da kuma makamin guba da ta samar ta hanyar amfani da karnuka ?

Yanzu dai ainihin ayyukan mamayar da Amurka ta jagoranta a 2001 aka yi niyyar janye wa baki ɗaya.

Wannan tambayar ta kasance abin damuwa ga shugabannin leken asiri na ƙasashen yammacin tsawon shekaru.

Karo biyu a yanzu, a cikin 2008 da kuma wannan shekarar, ana barin wasu muhimman bayanan sirri na Birtaniya na fita ga jama'a da ke bayyana girman damuwar Birtaniya kan alaƙar ƙungiyoyin biyu.

Dr Gohel, wanda ya daɗe yana nazari kan ayyukan ƙungiyoyin biyu tsawon shekaru, baya wani shakku.

"Ba za a iya raba Taliban daga al-Qaeda ba, saboda kamceceniyar al'adu da manufarsu ta siyasa wadda ba za su iya haƙura ba," in ji Dr Gohel na wata cibiyar Asia Pacific.

Wasu alamu

Daga lokacin da shugaban al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, ya karkatar da ayyukansa daga Sudan zuwa Afghanistan a 1996 har zuwa 2001, Taliban ce ta samar masa mafaka.

Saudiyya, ɗaya daga cikin ƙasashe uku da suka amince da gwamnatin Taliban a lokacin, ta tura shugaban hukumar leƙen asirinta Turki al-Faisal, domin neman Taliban ta miƙa mata Osama bin Laden.

Amma suka ƙi, kuma daga sansanin al-Qaeda a Afghanistan aka shirya tare da aiwatar da harin 9/11.

Amma Babban Hafsan sojin Birtaniya Janar Sir nick Carter, wanda ya yi aiki da rundunoni da dama a Afghanistan, ya yi imanin cewa shugabancin Taliban sun koyi darasi da kuskurensu.

Ya jaddada cewa idan har Taliban na son raba mulki ko ta ƙwace, ba za nemi sasanci ba a wannan karon.

Wannan kuma babban ƙalubalen, Wadanda suka yi zurfin tunani a tsakanin ƴan Taliban, musamman waɗanda suka mori rayuwa cikin kayan jin daɗi a Doha lokacin tattaunawa, za su iya neman raba-gari da al-Qaeda domin samun karɓuwa ga ƙasashen duniya.

Amma a ƙasa kamar Afghanistan, akwai tabbacin cewa Taliban za iya tafiya da al-Qaeda a gwamnatin da ke fatan kafawa.

Amma a ƙarshe abin da al-Qaeda da IS ke buƙata shi ne rikici da yanayi na tashin hankali, kuma alamu sun nun cewa a Afghanistan za su iya samu.