Jihohi bakwai da za su iya sauya sakamakon zaɓen shugaban Amurka

Kimanin mutum miliyan 240 ne suka cancanci kaɗa ƙuri'a a zaɓen Amurka na 2024, amma kaɗan ne daga cikinsu ke iya tabbatar da wanda zai zama shugaban ƙasa.

Masana sun yi amanna cewa akwai ƴan tsirarun jihohin da ake kira "swings state", wato jihohi marasa tabbas, domin kuwa kowa daga cikin 'yan takarar, Kamala Harris ta Democrats da Donald Trump na Republican.

Waɗannan jihohi bakwai waɗanda su bakwai, - Arizona da Georgia da Michigan da Nevada da North Carolina da Pennsylvania da kuma Wisconsin - ana ganin kamar su ne ke riƙe da makullan fadar White House (Ofishin shugaban ƙasar Amurka).

Don haka duka jami'iyyun biyu sun karkata kan farautar ƙuri’un mutane - da ba su yanke shawara kan wanda za su zaɓa ba - a waɗannan jihohin.

Ga bayanan jihohin da adadin al'umominsu, da adadin ƙuri'un wakilan masu zaɓe (Electoral college) da kowace jiha ke da shi, da kuma mutumin da ya lashe zaɓen jihar a 2020 da tazarar da ya bai wa abokin karawarsa.

Jihar Arizona

Jam'iyyar Democrat ta lashe shugabancin ƙasar ne a shekarar 2020 da goyon bayan jihar - wadda ta mara wa ɗan takarar jam'iyyar a karon farko tun 1990.

Arizona tana da iyaka da Mexico, kuma ta kasance cibiyar muhawarar baƙin haure ta ƙasar, kodayake adadin mutanen da ke ketare iyaka ya ragu a cikin ƴan watannin baya-bayan nan.

Trump ya sha sukar matsayar Harris game da shige da fice, saboda Shugaba Joe Biden ya damƙa mata aikin ƙoƙarin shawo kan rikicin kan iyaka

Ya kuma sha alwashin aiwatar da "aikin korar baƙi mafi girma" a tarihin Amurka idan ya sake samun shugabancin ƙasar.

Haka kuma Arizona ta fuskanci wani gagarumin takaddama kan batun zubar da ciki, bayan ƴan jam'iyyar Republican a jihar sun yi yunƙurin dawo da dokar da ta hana zubar da ciki, wadda aka soke shekara 160 da suka gabata.

Batun ya ƙara janyo musayar ra'ayi tun shekarar 2022 lokacin da kotun ƙolin Amurka ta soke wani gagarumin hukunci da ya bai wa mata ƴancin zubar da ciki.

Jihar Georgia

Jihar na cikin jerin manyan jihohin da jami'an Republican masu goyon bayan Trump suka yi ƙoƙarin hamɓarar da nasarar Shugaba Biden a zaɓen 2020.

A gundumar Fulton da ke Georgia, zarge-zargen katsalandan cikin lamuran zaɓe ya kasance ɗaya daga cikin manyan laifuka huɗu da aka tuhumi Trump a kansu (An yanke wa Trump hukunci a shari'a ɗaya, yayin da sauran ke ci gaba da gudana).

Ana zarginsa tare da wasu mutum 18 da laifin haɗa baki don kawar da kayen da ya sha a hannun Biden a jihar. Trump ya musanta aikata ba daidai ba, kuma ba za a saurari ƙarar a kotu ba kafin zaɓen wannan shekarar.

Kashi ɗaya cikin uku na al'ummar Georgia baƙaƙn fata ne - ɗaya daga cikin mafi yawan adadin baƙar fata mazauna Amurka - kuma an yi imanin cewa hakan ya taimaka wajen nasarar da Biden ya yi a jihar a 2020.

Alamu sun nun cewa akwai rashin gamsuwa da Biden tsakanin baƙaƙen fata a Amurka, amma ofishin yaƙin neman zaɓe na Harris na fatan samun goyon bayansu.

Jihar Michigan

Jihar da ake yi wa take da 'Great Lakes state' ta zabi ɗan takarar shugaban ƙasa da ya yi nasara a zaɓuka biyu da suka gabata. Duk da cewa Jihar ta goyi bayan Biden a 2020, ta zama wata cibiyar nuna rashin gamsuwa kan irin goyon bayan da shugaban ya ke yi wa Isra'ila a yaƙinta a Gaza.

A yayin zaɓen fidda gwani na jam'iyyar Democrat a Michigan a watan Fabrairu, sama da masu jefa ƙuri'a 100,000 sun kasance ''waɗanda ba su yanke matsaya ba" a kan ƙuri'unsu, wannan wani ɓangare ne na yunƙurin da masu fafutika ke yi don ganin gwamnatin Amurka ta dakatar da taimakon soji da ta ke bai wa Isra'ila.

Wani abu da ke da muhimmanci shi ne, Michigan tana da kaso mafi girma na Amurkawa asalin Larabawa a ƙasar - wani ɓangare da goyon bayansu ga Biden ke tangal-tangal.

Sai dai Harris ta ɗauki tsattsauran ra'ayi kan Isra'ila, kuma wasu masu zanga-zangar Gaza sun shaida wa BBC cewa suna fatan za ta ƙara tausaya wa lamarinsu.

Trump ya bayyana mahimmancin jihar a hanyarsa ta samun nasara. Da yake tsokaci game da abubuwan da ke faruwa a Gabas ta Tsakiya, ya yi kira ga Isra'ila ta ƙarƙare yaƙin da take yi kan Hamas a Gaza, ta kuma "kammala cikin hanzari".

Jihar Nevada

Jihar ta zaɓi jam'iyyar Democrats a zaɓuka da dama da suka gabata, amma akwai alamun yiwuwar sauya sheƙa zuwa jam'iyyar Republican.

Trump ya sami babban rinjaye a kan Biden a ƙuri'un jin ra'ayin jama'a da aka yi na farko-farko, amma ƙididdigar kwanan nan da kamfanin bin diddigin zaɓe, ya fitar ya nuna cewa tazarar ta ragu tun lokacin da Harris ta karɓi takarar.

Ƴan jam'iyyar Democrat sun yi fatan ɗan takarar da ke da farin jini tsakanin matasa da masu jefa ƙuri'a daban-daban zai iya cike wannan giɓin.

Duk ƴan takarar biyu suna fafatawa don shawo kan al'ummar jihar.

Duk da cewa tattalin arzikin Amurka ya nuna ci gaba tare da samar da ayyukan yi tun lokacin da Biden ya hau kan karagar mulki, murmurewa bayan Covid-19 na tafiyar hawainiya a Nevada fiye da sauran jihohi.

Jihar na da matsayi na uku a yawan marasa aikin yi a ƙasar, kashi biyar cikin 100, bayan California da Gundumar Columbia, bisa ga sabuwar ƙididdigar gwamnatin Amurka.

Idan Trump ya sake hawa karagar mulki, ya sha alwashin komawa kan wani ƙudirin rage haraji kan kowa, da kuma sassauta wasu ƙa'idoji da ka iya jan hankalin masu kaɗa ƙuri'a.

Jihar North Carolina

Akwai alamun cewa sakamakon ƙuri'un jin ra'ayin jama'a ya ƙara tsukewa a Jihar da ake yi wa laƙabi da ''Tar Heel state'' tun lokacin da Harris ta karɓi tikitin takarar jam'iyyar Democrat, kuma wasu manazarta a yanzu suna iƙirarin cewa jihar na iya karkata zuwa kowace jam'iyya.

Watakila hakan ya bayyana matakin Trump na gudanar da gangaminsa na farko a waje bayan yunƙurin kashe shi a watan Yuli.

"Wannan jiha, babbar jiha ce da nasara a cikinta ke da tasiri sosai," in ji shi.

A nasu ɓangaren, ƴan jam'iyyar Democrat sun yanke shawarar bai wa gwamnan jihar, Roy Cooper dandali a daren ƙarshe na babban taron jam'iyyarsu.

North Carolina tana da iyaka da jihar Georgia, kuma damuwarsu ta zo ɗaya game da wasu manyan abubuwan da suka shafi zaɓen, haka kuma a Arizona, ɗaya jihar da suke yanki ɗaya.

Trump ya lashe North Carolina a 2020 amma ya yi hakan da tazarar ƙuri'a 70,000 ne kacal, wanda ya ƙara ƙarfafa fatan ƴan Democrat cewa za su iya yin nasara a jihar a wannan zaɓen.

Jihar Pennsylvania

Wasu masana na kallon Jihar da ake yi wa taken ''Keystone State'' a matsayin babbar jiha a taswirar fagen fama na zaɓe.

Harris da Trump duk sun gudanar da yaƙin neman zaɓe a wannan jihar.

Ƴan takarar biyu da abokan takararsu sun bayyana a wannan jiha sama da sau 50 tun tsakiyar watan Yuli.

Pennsylvania ta tabbatar da mahimmancinta a zaɓen 2020, lokacin da ta goyi bayan Biden.

Pennsylvania da Michigan da Wisconsin, sun kasance muhimman wurare da Harris ta karkata a yaƙin neman zaɓenta.

Trump ya tsallake rijiya da baya a karon farko na yunƙurin kashe shi a Pennsylvania.

Shi ma, ya yi yaƙin neman zaɓe a can - kuma jihar na kan gaba wajen ce-ce-ku-cen bayar da kuɗi ga masu kaɗa ƙuri'a da mai goyon bayansa, Elon Musk ya yi.

Tattalin arziki babban batu ne a nan, da kuma sauran wurare da dama.

Hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya yi ƙamari a faɗin ƙasar a ƙarƙashin gwamnatin Biden, kafin ya fara sauka a hankali.

Al'ummar Pennsylvania ba su da bambanci da sauran Amurkawa wurin jin raɗaɗin tsadar rayuwa sakamakon hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.

Sai dai farashin kayan masarufi ya yi tashin gwauron zabi cikin lokaci kaɗan a jihar fiye da na kowa, a cewar kamfani Datasembly, mai ba da bayanan kasuwanci.

Ta'azzarar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na iya cutar da Harris a duk faɗin Amurka kamar yadda ƙididdiga ta nuna.

Trump ya nemi sukar abokiyar hamayyarsa, ta hanyar alaƙanta tsare-tsaren tattalin arzikin Biden - duk da sabbin alƙaluman hukuma da ke nuna haɓakar tattalin arziki da 2.8%.

Jihar Wisconsin

Jihar da ake kira ''Badger State'' ta zaɓi ɗan takarar shugaban ƙasa da ya yi nasara a 2016 da 2020, da tazarar ƙuri'a fiye da 20,000 a kowane lokaci.

Masu sharhi sun bayyana cewa jahohi irin Wisconsin su ne inda za a fi samun mafi girman tasiri daga ƴan takara, a ɓangaren waɗanda ke adawa da manufofin jam'iyyun Democrat da na Republican.

Ƙuri'ar jin ra'ayin jama'a da aka yi ta nuna cewa, goyon baya ga ɗan takara mai cin gashin kansa Robert F Kennedy Jr zai iya cutar da yawan ƙuri'un da Harris ko Trump za su samu.

Kennedy ya dakatar da yaƙin neman zaɓensa a ƙarshen watan Agusta kuma ya mara wa Trump baya.

Ƴan jam'iyyar Democrat sun yi ta fafutikar ganin an cire ƴar takarar jam'iyyar Green Party, Jill Stein daga jerin sunayen ƴan takara a Wisconsin, tana mai cewa jam'iyyar ba ta bi dokokin zaɓen jihohi ba.

Trump ya bayyana jihar a matsayin "mai matuƙar mahimmanci… idan muka ci Wisconsin, mun sami nasara ke nan baki ɗaya". An gudanar da babban taron jam'iyyar Republican na bazara a Milwaukee.

A wannan birni Harris ke gudanar da gangami a lokacin da babban taron jam'iyyarta ya tsayar da ita a matsayin ƴar takarar shugaban ƙasa ta Democrats.