Tallafin da ake bai wa ƙasashen duniya: Ko China za ta maye gurbin Amurka?

Katse bayar da tallafi ga ƙasashen waje da Amurka ta yi ya haifar da fargaba a fadin duniya kan wanda zai maye giɓin da tallafin zai haifar.

Yayin da babbar hukumar bayar da agaji ta Amurka ke ja da baya daga gagarumin aikin da ta jima tana yi, da dama cikin masu tsara manufofin da ɓangaren bayar da taimako na mamaki idan Beijing, da ke ganin hakan a matsayin wata dama ta fara bayar da tallafin.

Tuni dai Chinan ta sanya idanu kan Cambodia, inda cikin gomman shekaru, ayyukan bayar da agaji ta duniya ke taimaka wa gwamnatin ƙasar, wajen share nakiyoyin da aka binne a lokacin yaƙin da ƙasar ta fafata, da har yanzu ke kashe fararen hula da raunata wasu.

Mako guda bayan da gwamnatin Trump ta sanar da dakatar da bayar da tallafin ƙasashen waje - cibiyar tono nakiyoyi ta Cambodia (CMAC) da aka ɗora wa alhakin share nakiyoyin da ke binne a ƙarƙashin ƙasa - ta sanar da cewa China ta alƙawarta bayar da tallafin dala miliyan 4.4 domin taimaka wa ci gaba aikin tono nakiyoyin na tsawon shekara guda, da za a fara daga watan Yunin 2025.

Matakin na nuna damar da China ta samu kan janye tallafin Amurkan wajen ƙarfafa ikonta da ƙara yauƙaƙa dangantakarta da ƙasashen kudancin duniya, da suka ƙunshi naiyoyin Afirka da yankin Latin da Asia da ma yankin Oceania.

Heng Ratana, shugaban CMAC, daga baya ya ce Amurka za ta dawo da tallafin yayin cibiyar ke "tattauna manufofinta game da tallafin da Amurka ke bayarwa".

Yayin da matakin gaggawa da Chinan ta ɗauka kan Cambodia ya bayyana a fili, ba lallai ne hakan na nufin aniyar cike duka giɓin da Amurka ta bari ba, domin kuwa masana na ganin ba lallai ta iya ba.

Duk da cewa Beijing tana da daɗaɗɗen burin karyewar ƙasashen Yamma kuma matakin Donald Trump na dakatar da ɗaya daga cikin manyan abubuwan da ke nuna tasirin Amurka a wasu ƙasashen duniya ya zo wa Xi Jinping a kan gaɓa.

Tsarin tallafin China: Sabon salo

China ta kasance wani babban ginshiƙi ga ci gaban duniya.

A cewar AidData, wata cibiyar bincike a Jami'ar William & Mary da ke Virginia, China ta kashe dala tiriliyan 1.34 tsakanin shekarar 2000 zuwa 2021, idan aka kwatanta da dala tiriliyan 1.24 tsakanin 2001 zuwa 2023, lamarin da ya sa ta zama ƙasar da ta fi bayar da tallafi a duniya.

Kashe kuɗaden China ya ƙaru ne ƙarƙashin shirin Belt da Road Initiative (BRI), shirin bayar da tallafi da shugaba Xi Xinping ya ɓullo da shi, da nufin kusanta China da ƙasashen duniya ta hanyar zuba jari da gina ababen more rayuwa, da aka ƙaddamar a 2013.

China ta ƙarfafa tallafinta a hukumance a 2018, ta hanyar kafa hukumar haɗin kan raya ƙashashe ta duniya, (CIDCA), kwatankwacin hukumar Usaid.

To sai dai tsarin tallafin China ya sha bamban da na Amurka.

A cewar AidData, daga 2012 zuwa 2021, yayin da kusan kashi 80 na tallafin Amurka an bayar da shi ne a matsayin wanda aka buƙata, wanda ba a tsammanin biyansa, kwatankwacin kashi 3 cikin 100 da China ta bayar a wannan tsari.

Galibi China kan bayar da tallafin ne a matsayin bashi, lamarin da ya sa ta zama ƙasar da ta fi bai wa ƙasashe bashi a duniya.

Saɓanin tallafin Amurka, wanda ya fi bayar da hankali kan lafiya da ayyuoan jin ƙai, China ta fi fifita ɓangaren zuba jari da gina ababen more rayuwa, da makamashi da ayyukan haƙar ma'adinai.

BRI ta zama abar misali kan haka - inda take tallfa wa ci gaban tattalin arzikin ƙasashen duniya ta hanyar gina ababen more rayuwa maimakon bayar da tallafin kuɗi kai-tseye.

Salon China shi ne ''haɗin kan kudu maso kudum,'' inda take mayar da hankali kan musayar albarkatun ƙasa da ilimi tsakaninta da ƙasashen kudancin duniya. Tana nesanta kanta da ƙasashen Yamma a salon bayar da tallafinta, inda take zargin ƙasashen Yamman da amfani da tallafin wajen yin katsalandan a al'amuran cikin gida na ƙasashen.

Masu suka na ganin cewa tallafin Chinan ba ya lura da ɓangaren yancin ɗan'adam, wani abu da ke zama babban sharadin bayar da tallafin Amurka.

Alal misali, ƙasashen Yamma sun sanya mata takunkumai saboda mamayar Ukraine, amma ta kasance ɗaya daga cikin kasashen da suka fi amfana da tallafin China.

Haka ma, China ta ci gaba da zuba jari a fannin gina ababen more rayuwa a Sri Lanka, bayar dakatar da tallafin Amurka a lokacin da ƙasar ckin mummunan yaƙin basasa.

Ko a shirye China take don maye gurbin Amurka?

Masana da dama na ganin cewa da wuya China ta iya maye gurbin tallafin USAID.

''China ba za ta iya cike giɓi nɗimbin dalolin da gwamnatocin ƙasashen Yamma ke bayarwa ba,'' a cewar Samantha Custer, daraktan cibiyar AidData. ''Akwai bambanci mai yawa''.

Amurka ta shafe gomman shekaru tana gina ayyukan tallafi a duniya, ta hanyar haɗa kai da ƙungiyoyi masu zaman kansu da gwamnatoci da al'umomi ƙasashen.

China ba ta bi wannan tsari ba. ''Gina wannan tsari zai ɗauki lokaci, in ma ba gomman shekaru ba'', a cewar Dakta Jingdong Yuan na cibiyar nazarin zaman lafiya ta Stockholm .

Wata matsalar ita ce matsin tattalin arziki. Ƙololuwar kuɗin da China ta kashe kan tallafi a shekara shi ne dala biliyan 125 a 2016, saboda ƙarfin tattalin arzikinta. To amma tun daga lokacin yake raguwa har zuwa 2021, lokacin da ya koma yadda yake a 2008, saboda raguwar tattalin razikin ƙasar.

Yayin da ƙasar ke fuskantar taɓarɓarewar tattalin arziki a cikin gida, abu ne mai wahala Beijing ta iya gamsar da ƴanƙasarta dalilin da zai sa ta ƙara yawan tallafin jin ƙai ga ƙasashen waje a daidai lokacin da jama'arta ke kokawa.

''Babu buƙatar kashe irin wannan kuɗi a ƙasar a halin yanzu'', a cewar Farfesa Deborah Brautigam ta jami'ar Johns Hopkins .

Shiga cikin sabgar bayar da agaji da China da Amurka suka yi ba ƙaramin tasiri ya yi ba wajen faɗaɗa tasirin ƙasashen, don haka janyewar ɗaya na nufin dole ɗaya ta ƙara yawan abin da take bayarwa.

To sai a wannan gaɓa da wuya China ta iya ƙara ƙaimi wajen bayar da tallafin.

Alal misali a shekarar 2023, lokacin da hukumar ta USAID ta dakatar da tallafin abinci ga ƙasar Ethiopia saboda matsalar cin hanci da rashawa, China ba ta nuna azamar cike giɓin ba, duk da dangantakar dake tsakaninta da Ethiopia ta fuskar gina ababen more rayuwa.

''Akwai lokuta da dama da chinan ta samu damar ci gaba da bayar da tallafin, amma sai take ja da baya, kuma dama in dai ta fuskar tallafin da ba na zuba jari ba ne, China ba ta iya cike giɓin'', in ji Farfesa Salvador Santino Regilme, na Jami'ar Leiden.

Dabarar China na faɗaɗa tasirinta a duniya

Yayin da China ba za ta iya cike giɓin tallafin da hukumar ta USAID ta bari ba, tana ci gaba da bunƙasa tasirinta a duniya ta hanyar dabaru na dogon lokaci.

USAID ta amince da tsarin da Beijing ta bi, kuma a baya ta kafa wata hukuma ta musamman don tinkarar daƙushe tasirinta a duniya.

Da yake tsokaci kan illar dakatar da tallafin, Francisco Bencosme, tsohon babban jami'in hukumar ta USAID kan batutuwan da suka shafi China, ya yi gargadin cewa, "duniya ta lalace", kuma tuni China ta tuntubi abokan huldar hukumar USAID kamar Nepal da Cambodia.

Masana sun ce, ba zato ba tsammani a yanzu dakatar da agajin da al'ummar duniya da dama suka dogara a kansa, zai bai wa China damar ƙarfafa kanta, ta hanyar ƙara ƙulla hulda da manyan ƙawayensa.

Baya ga kashe maƙudan kuɗi wajen gna ababen more rayuwa cikin shekara 20 da suka gabata musamman a ƙasashen kudancin duniya.

Ta hanyar ayyana kanta a matsayin abokiyar zama "maras katsalandan", Beijing ta samu nasarar sayar da tsarin ci gabanta ga ƙasashe da dama.

Kama daga hulɗar diplomasiyya zuwa wasanni da ababen more rayuwa China ta gina tare da samar da kuɗaɗe don gina filayen wasanni a fadin Afirka, da gina manyan tasoshin jiragen ruwa a Latin Amurka. Haka kuma Beijing ta yi ƙoƙarin sanya kanta a matsayin abokiyar hulɗar gina manyan ayyukan raya ƙasa.