Evan asked our panel of undecided voters to put their hands up if they trusted the treasury figures. Here's how many of them did:

This is in line with polls that show voters trust politicians less and less in general.

Indeed, there are those that see Donald Trump's rise in the US as being a result of this. Voters don't find what he says particularly plausible, but that applies to all politicians - he seems to speak their language. Maybe they don't believe he'll build a wall at the Mexican border, but they do think he understands their frustrations on immigration.

Hopefully tonight we'll be able to give you some facts you can trust.

Here is that graph on the Treasury Brexit forecast

There’s a figure that’s come under a bit of flak today from the leave camp – the government’s estimate that if we were to leave the EU then by 2030 each household would be £4,300 worse than we would have been if we remained. 

Like most of the figures in today’s report, this is what economists call a ‘central estimate’ – there’s a bit of uncertainty around it, and it could be considerably higher or lower. 

It's also important to remember this is an estimate of GDP per household – not GDP per person. The Government actually worked out the equivalent per person figure as well, which is £1800 of GDP per person. You might well speculate on why the Government chose to highlight the larger number. 

Our colleagues, BBC Reality check have done a good piece on the limitations of this figure here.

How important is the economy in deciding how you will vote in the EU referendum?

Let us know by tweeting us@BBCNewsnight , externalusing #newsnight, or post on our Facebook page, external.

We'll post a selection of your comments on this blog.

This evening we welcome back our undecided voters, who we are hoping will keep the politicians in check. Here are their thoughts and hopes for the programme tonight:

Buckle in, over the next 50 minutes we'll be going to the heart of the economic debate around the EU referendum. 

Somebody has clearly spent their day watching a lot of political history, but it has produced this great montage of politicians shouting things about Europe. There will be more to add by the end of tonight... 

In this debate from the 1975 referendum, two cabinet colleagues, Roy Jenkins and Tony Benn, argue on national media about the impact that British withdrawal from the European Economic Community would have on investment and jobs. 

Remind you of anything?

Tonight’s EU special is on a topic that could swing a lot of votes: the economy. 

How do we know this? Because of this graph, posted by Newsnight's policy editor Chris Cook last week, that shows the results of polling commissioned from YouGov by Professor Cowley of Queen Mary, University of London. 

People were asked how they would vote in the referendum if they knew whether leaving or remaining would make them better or worse off. 

In short, there appears to be a large and potentially decisive group of people who will vote for whichever result they think will make them better off - even by £25 either way.

Know your EEAS from your EMU? Get up to speed with the commonly-used EU jargon with this searchable glossary. 

Evan Davis
Newsnight Presenter

Last week, our panel of undecided voters told us rather frankly that sovereignty wasn't an issue that mattered to them as much as economics. While that’s not what the editor of the sovereignty programme wanted to hear, it augers well for tonight when we look at the economy.

The Treasury has given us its verdict. It embraces a wide range of outcomes if we leave the EU, but all of them are economically negative. For my money, the Treasury looks more pessimistic than the average economist, but within the realms of sanity. It is also quite possible within the realms of sanity to take a far more optimistic view of the Brexit outcome.

For the programme this evening, I’d rather get away from precise numbers. Our judgements will be based on our choice of risks. For me, if we put it into Deal or No Deal type choice of risks, the Brexit side hope that by leaving we can achieve a better trading relationship with the rest of the world. But the downside is that by leaving, we possibly damage the best trading relationship we already have - the one with the EU.

That’s the issue, and we’ll be trying to add flesh to it this evening. 

We've trawled Twitter for some of the best reaction to George Osborne's forecast, leaving you free to enjoy this live-blog.

First up, this from the BBC's Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg:

A rather different analogy from Giles Wilkes, former special adviser to Vince Cable and now writer for the Financial Times:

And here are those MPs who are rather less convinced by the Treasury's gloomy EU exit forecast:

Last week, we asked our panel of undecided voters whether sovereignty or the economy were more important factors in their voting decision. 

Half of the panel thought the economy was more important – and tonight we'll be delving into the detail of the implications for your pocket and for the nation's purse strings too.

Get involved by using #Newsnight – we'll feature a selection here on the live blog.

Ian Katz
Newsnight Editor

If a week is a long time in politics, it’s an eternity in television. For most of last week, a team of crack Newsnight operatives have been hard at work assembling the second of our special programmes on the biggest issues in the referendum debate – 50 perfectly formed minutes exploring the argument over whether leaving the EU would make Britain more or less safe.

This morning, as George Osborne took to the airwaves to warn that Brexit would condemn us to penury and plagues of locusts, we tore it up and started again. In tonight’s (slightly less perfectly formed) special programme we’ll try to get to the bottom of the argument over whether Brexit would make us richer or poorer. By the end of it you’ll know your Norwegian from your Canadian model, and maybe even your TTIP from your TPP. And with a bit of luck you might even feel a little better equipped to make your mind up about one of the biggest political decisions in a generation.

You can follow all the arguments – and the arguments about the arguments – here until midnight. In the meantime, you may want to limber up by working through a few of these handy Treasury equations.

The economy is the subject of tonight's Newsnight EU referendum special. Evan Davis will be joined by top politicians from both sides of the argument, a panel of experts, and a group of undecided voters. 

It’s the second in a series of Newsnight specials unpacking the big questions behind the UK’s referendum vote on 23 June. You can catch up with last week's Sovereignty special here.

The programme starts at 10.30pm on BBC Two and at the top of this page. Join us here from 10pm for extra background, analysis and insight from the Newsnight team.