Decommissioning ultimatum guaranteed to stiffen spines The Hillsborough declaration underlines how the Irish and British governments have failed to comprehend the psychology of the republican movement, argues Niall O'Dowd
From IRISH TIMES April 7th, 1999
Yogi Berra, the American baseball icon who coined the immortal dictum: "When you come to a fork in the road, take it", would approve of the work of the
British and Irish governments last week. When faced with tough realities
they tried to have it both ways. The Hillsborough declaration tells us on
one hand that decommissioning is no longer a precondition, but on the other
that some disposal of arms must occur by a certain date in order for Sinn
Fein to join the executive. It also states, paradoxically, that while decommissioning
is an obligation it is also voluntary. Clearly the governments were hoping
their sleight of words would allow some of the inherent contradictions in
the peace process to be elided once again, and a new plateau reached by
the formation of the executive in return for some arms being placed out
of use. There is nothing wrong with such a tactic given that there is constant
parsing and analysis by all sides of every document issued by the two governments
in Northern Ireland. In that context, it is understandable that Mr Blair
and Mr Ahern would seek to maintain an even keel and have both sides take
comfort from different aspects of official statements. The Belfast Agreement
was a masterpiece of such balance. On this occasion, however, the fudge-meisters
have failed in abject fashion to weave their spell. The Hillsborough declaration,
far from moving the situation forward, has propelled it backwards to a point
where it could easily yaw out of control. What went wrong? There appears
to have been a collective failure by the two governments to comprehend the
psychology of the republican movement. The Hillsborough declaration contains
much of what could be workable, but it presents the IRA with an ultimatum
to put arms out of use by a May deadline. It also moves outside the Belfast
Agreement, the Rosetta stone for republicans of their involvement in the
peace process. The ultimatum on arms was given despite the private and public
entreaties by Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness that they could not deliver
weaponry from the IRA in such circumstances. Amazingly, it seems, the governments
decided to go ahead anyway. The Sinn Fein leaders knew that ultimatums are
guaranteed to stiffen the spine of republicans like almost no other tactic.
Though this particular one is couched in velvet-glove language it contains,
nonetheless, the clear threat that if they do not respond they will face
being shut out of power. The decision to move outside the framework of the
Belfast Agreement in the declaration is also hard to fathom. The failure
to launch an all-out push over the past year for the implementation of an
agreement voted for by 71 per cent of the people in the North and 95 per
cent in the Republic, and to allow it to be utterly side-tracked by decommissioning,
will puzzle future historians. Judging by their Easter Sunday orations,
republicans have already deconstructed the Hillsborough declaration as meaning
that despite the Belfast Agreement and their hard-won ceasefire, their future
role in government is totally dependent on bowing to the key unionist demand
of arms hand-over. Further down the road they see the ground being prepared
for them as the fall guys if the process comes apart. That may appear an
overly harsh reading of the declaration, but it is undoubtedly the view
that is prevailing in republican circles. A leading Sinn Fein official told
me his phone had rung constantly early on Friday morning with disgruntled
party members furious at the perceived ultimatum on decommissioning. Perhaps
the two governments were lulled by the success in the past that Sinn Fein
leaders have had in selling to their movement the many steps towards political
involvement, including the cease-fires, the removal of Articles 2 and 3
and participation in what they regard as a partitionist assembly in Stormont.
"I think we are victims of our own success," a leading republican told me
ruefully in Belfast on Friday. But they are not miracle workers. They are
simply not able to sell decommissioning on whatever pretext under the shadow
of an ultimatum, or outside the two-year framework of the Belfast Agreement.
Nor will they attempt to, in my opinion, as to do so could precipitate a
split which would have enormous consequences for everyone on the island.
The republican movement is still in transition from physical force to solely
political activity. It is a fraught process, not helped now by ill-advised
pressure tactics. Nor are they likely to be rushed into making such crucial
decisions. |
