Time for change
Brian Campbell
David Trimble, in particular personifies unionist confusion and division. He signed up to the Agreement in what was seen as a courageous step forward but ever since he has tried to change it in favour of his position. Instead of campaigning on its potential to bring a brighter future he focused on those parts - release of prisoners, IRA decommissioning, Sinn Fein in cabinet - which have caused him most difficulty. It was arguably the stupidest campaign someone in his position could have fought and the result was the Ulster Unionists' lowest ever vote.
Trimble continually lets it be known that he still refuses to talk to Sinn Fein and still insists on an IRA handover of arms in advance of Sinn Fein participation in the Assembly's Executive and before the release of prisoners.
By contrast, while he used this negative rhetoric, there is evidence that Trimble is lagging behind is electorate. The result of the referendum indicates that he would win support if he gave positive leadership.
Gerry Adams has said that Trimble is torn between his emotions and his intellect - emotionally he is against change; intellectually he knows it must come. When his emotions and intellect are aligned, then we will see progress, Adams said. That progress can only come by working the terms of the Agreement but so far there is nothing to show that Trimble has grasped that reality.
His language betrays his agenda. He fought the election on a platform of minimum change and has yet to reveal a strategy to move into the new future described by the Agreement. Even when he made what was billed as a forward looking speech, Trimble pointedly ruled out dealing with republicans.
But Sinn Fein now has enough seats to guarantee them two cabinet positions. Trimble as First Minister will be faced with the dilemma of having to deal with two Ministers at the cabinet table while at the same time refusing to talk with them. The inevitability of a climb down should see an eventual end to the farce. But it may run for a few months yet.
For the moment, the Assembly will be suspended until September. The Agreement stipulates that its institutions be in place by the end of October - in particular the all-Ireland bodies - but Trimble's Ulster Unionists have said they are determined to delay until well into next year. It is yet another indication of Trimble's short term tactics. The desire to hod back the tide of change reveals the lack of a coherent strategy.
That tide of change could begin on the Garvaghy Road, but that is up to
the British government. It is their first major test. We'll soon know if
they have passed it. Behind the scenes loyalist death squads are said to
be preparing to strike against nationalists and there have been warnings
to be extremely vigilant. It could be a tense few weeks. |
