Peace
in Our Time? The 1998 Agreement
by Steve Bruce
The vote in the Irish Republic was almost Soviet: of the 56 per cent who
voted, 94 per cent were in favour. This was important because it gave Sinn
Fein the mandate it needed to end the armed struggle (or, if one prefers
the cynical interpretation, forced the same outcome). Of course this did
not impress dissident groups as Republican Sinn Fein and the 32 county Sovereignty
Committee but it strengthened the hand of Adams. In the North, 70 per cent
voted 'Yes', but that was composed of a solid nationalist vote in favour
and unionists being divided about evenly. That was followed immediately
by the elections to the Assembly.
On the nationalist side, the main issue was the relative strengths of the
SDLP and Sinn Fein. On the unionist side the election was a repeat of the
referendum with Paisley and McCartney hoping to increase their support enough
to prevent the Assembly functioning. Additionally, there were echoes of
1973 as dissidents within the UUP tried to win nominations and Trimble,
like Faulkner before him, had to live with his inability to veto candidate
selection.
In the event the party's executive was able to use the general rule against
members running for two legislatures to prevent well-known dissidents such
as Donaldson standing and only three or four avowedly anti-Trimble names
went forward. In a further parallel with the anti-Sunningdale campaign,
Paisley and McCartney had the advantage over Trimble that they were able
to ensure that anti-GFA candidates did not compete while the various unionist
parties that were in favour ran against each other. The result was close.
Despite fears that Sinn Fein might overtake the SDLP, it won only 18 seats
to the SDLP's 24. The UUP won 28 seats and Paisley's DUP took 20. With the
support for Robert McCartney's 5 UK Unionists and 3 independent unionists,
that means 28 unionists opposed to the deal. The Ulster Democratic Party
(the political front of the UDA) failed to win any seats but the Progressive
Unionists won two: Ervine was elected in East Belfast and Billy Hutchinson
scraped home in North Belfast.
The Alliance party won only 6 seats rather than the 8 that had been projected
but the Women's Coalition (on a platform very similar to that of Alliance)
won 2. That meant a huge majority in favour of the GFA but under the rules
requiring consensus in each block, unionist support remained precarious.
In order to prevent the Assembly functioning the No camp need 40 per cent
of those registering as unionists: 34 votes. Initially there were fears
that the three people elected as UUP members who were known to be opposed
to the agreement would side with the DUP (which would leave the No camp
tantalising close to the blocking 40 per cent). However, in the first test
- the election of the First Minister -- one of Trimble's cuckoos absented
himself and the others voted for him.
This places the dissident unionists in an extremely difficult position.
Before the Assembly assumes its powers early in 1999, a series of vital
decisions concerning such matters as the remit and composition of the new
cross-border agencies have to be taken. If the dissidents refuse to support
Trimble, they will merely strengthen the nationalists. If the DUP refuses
to take the two seats in the Executive to which it is entitled, these will
be given to other parties and the unionist hand will be further weakened.
There are already signs that the DUP will not pursue its hatred of Trimble
and the agreement to such self-defeating lengths. In the election for the
chairman of the Standing Orders Committee, Paisley was nominated and polled
the same as the SDLP candidate. He then withdrew his nomination and proposed
a UUP man who was a strong supporter of the agreement.
The No camp is hoping that the next few months will see the UUP crash on
the rocks of de-commissioning. It is clear that the British government does
not intend to make Sinn Fein's entry to office depend on the IRA handing
in weapons or a complete absence of republican violence. All the paramilitary
organizations have made it clear that, although they will continue to meet
with the commission established to oversee the surrender of weapons, they
do not envisage de-commissioning within the next few years. |
