Anyone who has anything to do with information technology - which means just about everyone - will, whether they know it or not, have had something to do with Cisco Systems.
In less than twenty years it grew to be the most valuable company in the world. Then the dotcom bubble burst.
The man who built the company has spent the past two years getting the company back into shape.
He's given a rare interview to our business correspondent, Paul Mason, who was keen to know whether anybody on America's west coast still believes all that dotcom hype.
PAUL MASON:
In the dotcom boom, no company
boomed like Cisco. Cisco Systems
makes the computers that direct traffic
on the internet. As the internet expanded,
so did it. The hope, the hype and an
aggressive programme to buy up other
Silicon Valley start-ups made it the
biggest company on the US Stock
Exchange. And for one dizzying day in
2000, when it was worth half-a-trillion
dollars, the most valuable company on
Earth.
JOHN CHAMBERS:
CEO, CISCO SYSTEMS:
We had a dream that the internet would
change nearly every aspect of our lives.
Change the way the world works, lives,
plays and learns. That kind of shaped
what we were trying to accomplish from
productivity to standard of living.
Silicon Valley tends to have dreams.
Lots of times they come true. We hoped
we'd be part of that.
PAUL MASON:
Then, suddenly, the dream was over. The
dotcom bubble burst and the real
economy followed. Companies didn't
need any more of Cisco's boxes to cope
with the projected growth. By spring
2001, it had acres of unsold stockpiled
up in its warehouses forcing a $2 billion
write-off. What did this rollercoaster ride
look like to the man in the front seat?
JOHN CHAMBERS:
For a decade, we said growth would be
at 30 to 50%, and when for nine quarters
in a row it was above 50%, in the 50-
75%, we were hesitant about would that
be sustainable. But we never modelled
for it to go from 70% growth in the first
week of December to the middle of
January, being minus 30% growth. I'm
good at maths. I thought it was
mathematically impossible.
PAUL MASON:
Silicon Valley appears to be a slightly
more subdued place now. Do you think
the great days of technology innovation
are over and it's become a more subdued
place than it was?
JOHN CHAMBERS:
The last several years have been
humbling for us all, and that builds
character. The Valley has been through
multiple ups and downs before, from the
semiconductor industry to the
networking industry to PCs, et cetera, so
this is nothing new. If you look at the
unique ingredients that Silicon Valley
has, this is why I am the optimist about
Silicon Valley in the long run, they had
the venture capital, the great universities,
the role models of companies you could
learn from and steal people from, and I
believe you'll see the best start-ups,
founded not three or four years ago
during the boom, but founded now, when
people have learned from it and
positioned themselves for the future.
PAUL MASON:
With the worst over, Cisco is now
making operating profits of over 60%,
way above the average. The secret is
dominance. If Microsoft dominates in
PC software, Cisco dominates the
wiring. That's great for Cisco, not so
great for the companies that buy the
technology. Did Chambers ever set out
to build such a large and dominant
company?
JOHN CHAMBERS:
I don't use the word "dominant". I use
the word "large". We thought Cisco
could be a major player, but our
definition of a major player was a couple
of billion-dollar company. We've been
fortunate to be at the right spot at the
right time. I wish I could say it was
brilliant leadership, but there's no
substitute in technology for being in the
right industry, with the right company, at
the right point in time. We've been very
fortunate.
PAUL MASON:
The dotcom crash was bad, but then
came worse - the scandals at Enron and
WorldCom. All across
corporate America, there were question
marks about the accuracy of company
accounts. Cisco emerged unscathed, but
did it change the mind-set of people at
the top?
JOHN CHAMBERS:
The hit to confidence was not just from
investors and the public, it was also of
other business leaders. It was extremely
disappointing for what people did that
was clearly illegal, and of equal
disappointment was the corporate
cultures did not exist, as in many of
these companies a large number of
people had to know. It isn't an issue that
one or two people did something
inappropriate, it was the fact that a large
number of people knew and tolerated it.
That was a surprise to me.
PAUL MASON:
Cisco itself is seen as a very lean, mean,
selling machine. It didn't make you think
that you wanted to turn it into a more
kinder, gentler kind of capitalism?
JOHN CHAMBERS:
We have been a gentler, kinder type of
capitalism. When you look at our
options, which by the way have resulted
in the stock going up 200,000% since we
went public, our shareholders have won,
we had the highest customer satisfaction
in the industry and our employees have
won. So the softer, gentler capitalism
which I believe in, and in MBA school I
would have called it socialism, but
caring about your employees, caring
about your customers, shareholders and
partners, and those being the four
cornerstones of your future, is how we
built this company.
PAUL MASON:
Cisco is famous for its family
atmosphere and near Calvinist frugality.
Nobody travels business class,
everybody works in the same kind of
cubicle. But the whole thing is driven by
stock options, the right to buy Cisco
shares at a knockdown price. Share
options have become tainted after the
dotcom boom and because companies
get billion-dollar tax breaks for using
them. While others are scaling them
back, Chambers remains a true believer.
JOHN CHAMBERS:
When you think about ownership of
companies, there has not been a
successful high-cat company built or
reinvented in the last two decades that
haven't shared ownership with their
employees. That's how you get the
return, where our shareholders at Cisco
in the last seven years have a return of
1,500%, when the Nasdaq has only
150% return. Our global competition
from Europe and the US will be Asia.
They are going to use stock options.
PAUL MASON:
The economic future of America and the
world is still uncertain, but if there's one
company that will see an upturn before
the rest, it's Cisco, because its products
have become building blocks for the rest
of the economy. Chambers legendarily
has real-time access to the company
accounts, so what's his best guess at
what happens next?
JOHN CHAMBERS:
The question is not when we will see an
upturn, because we already have. The
question is what kind of strength and
how long will it last. It's still fragile.
We've tried to share with our
shareholders and others that the upturn is
starting, that we are cautiously optimistic
about the future, and then share what the
caveats are of the things that could trip it
up. We are seeing this from our customer
base, not in terms of necessary orders at
all, but in terms of the cautious
optimisms of CEOs around the world
and Government leaders. That isn't true
just in the US or the UK. We're seeing it
in China, Japan, Australia, Russia, and
the Middle East.
PAUL MASON:
The internet was supposed to herald a
new economy, rapid productivity gains
and inflation-free growth. Some now
think that's old hat, but not John
Chambers.
JOHN CHAMBERS:
It's fair to say people got under-excited
about the internet for many years, and it
was well upon us before they understood
the power. Too excited, too pessimistic,
too excited, very excited, too pessimistic.
But the trend is clearly up and to the
right. You're going to find that almost all
of the concepts that were said about the
internet, in terms of changing
productivity, standard of living,
improving healthcare and education, will
happen, and if you look back at many of
the predictions made, most of those have
and will come true. Interestingly enough,
most business and government leaders
around the world, clearly understand that
the internet will change productivity, and
the standard of living, in ways that
people dreamed about and are starting to
see.
PAUL MASON:
If he is right, the global economy will
rise again accompanied by the quiet hum
of Cisco's little boxes, generating high
productivity for us, giant profits for him.
If he's wrong, it's more than just Cisco
that stands to lose.
This transcript was produced from the teletext subtitles that are generated live for Newsnight. It has been checked against the programme as broadcast, however Newsnight can accept no responsibility for any factual inaccuracies. We will be happy to correct serious errors.