Jakarta correspondent Jonathan Head on the increasing pressure on the Indonesian government to start genuine political reform.

The Assembly which granted former President Suharto a seventh five-year term in March was little more than a piece of political theatre - the dominant factions in the People's Consulatative Assembly were staunchly loyal to the 76-year old leader.

It is a system which has faced little opposition in the past, because of Mr Suharto's record of delivering strong economic growth. But the collapse of the Indonesian currency has caused prices and unemployment to rise sharply - leading to rioting across much of the country and forcing Mr Suharto to ask for help from the IMF.

Waves of panic buying have hit food stores as the rupiah has lost its value

Financial Analysts say the pervasive corruption and lack of transparency which have characterised business practices under former President Suharto have allowed Indonesian companies to build up unsustainable levels of foreign debt. Some argued that Indonesia could not restore investor confidence unless the former President stepped down.

But Mr Suharto's commitment to the IMF reforms was uncertain - he had complained that they are not working fast enough, and suggested re-negotiating them.

Real concerns in the region

Neighbouring governments have been worried that Indonesia's uncertain economic prospects were holding back a recovery in South East Asia.

The sheer size of the Indonesian market of 200 million people, and the importance of its rich natural resources, means what happens there has a profound impact of the rest of the region.

There is also concern over political stability. The powerful armed forces were apparently united in backing him - but there were serious splits about the shape of the post-Suharto era among the senior military officers.

The influence of Islam on the world's largest Muslim population cannot be discounted.

Until now fundamentalist Islam has not been visible in Indonesia - which has the world's largest Muslim population - but in a country where all other organisations are tightly controlled by the government, Islam remains the only independent force with any potential to challenge the existing order.

Indonesia at a watershed

There has been an extraordinary reluctance among many Indonesians to discuss the post-Suharto era openly.

Years of official indoctrination against open debate, which is believed to strain existing ethnic, religious and regional divisions within this heterogeneous island nation, have stifled free thought.

Ask a student at one of the best universities here what he or she thinks should happen after Suharto, and you might be given an unreastically idealistic answer, or as likely you will get no more than a nervous giggle. The former president has taken pride in de-politicising his people, but in this volatile, transitional period, too many people appear dangerously under-informed.
 

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