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Friday, May 21, 1999 Published at 16:02 GMT 17:02 UK


Business: The Economy

Signs of health for UK economy

Credit card debt is increasing

More evidence is emerging for the recovery of the UK economy.

The latest figures suggest that people and companies are borrowing more than ever, especially for house purchase.

Credit card borrowing has also increased sharply.

"These data reinforce the message from yesterday's consumer confidence figures: the UK is recovering strongly," said Marian Bell at Royal Bank of Scotland.

Confusing picture

Economists were expecting lending in April to slow down, after Thursday's figures showed that customers were not spending on the high street.

But instead lending shot up with overall bank lending growing to £8.4bn in April form £6.7bn in March.

Credit card lending increased by £300m, its biggest jump since February 1997.

Some recent measures of the UK economy, like consumer confidence, point to increased optimism, while others, like unemployment and retail sales, are still turning down.

Marian Bell said she believed that the weak retail sales figure was "an aberration, likely distorted by Easter."

Housing boom

Lending for house purchase is particularly strong at the moment, suggesting that confidence is returning to the housing market.

The building societies lent more than £1bn in mortgages in April for the second month in a row.

"These latest lending figures...are further evidence that borrowers are enjoying the relatively upbeat economic outlook as well as the lowest mortgage rates for over three decades," said Adrian Coles, Director-General of the Building Societies Association.

Risk of rate rises

The new figures could be interpreted to show that inflation has replaced recession as the main danger for the UK economy.

In the past, the Bank of England has targeted the money supply as a key indicator of inflation.

But now it prefers to look at the real economy, wages growth, and lending.

Nevertheless, the renewed signs of consumer borrowing could make the Monetary Policy Committee more cautious about lowering interest rates further.





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